Hi all, A simple question but maybe a tough one to answer. Does anyone have the stats on what % of races has the winner last raced in the last 21 days. I have read 80%, not sure). To go one step further could this also be obtained for the second and third placegetters also, and the 3 collectively.

Regards, Paul

Paul,

it might be 80% (i could check .. in fact I have checked for you below) but it doesn't matter if 80% of all runners run within 21 days.

Total horse runs in my DB : 195870
With 21 days last start or less : 151160
77%

Total winners : 20344
with 21 days last start or less : 12462
61%

This highlights something very interesting but needs the right questions asked about it. The above is very useful for a ratings system. Are you creating a rating system ? If so you just learnt something very useful. If not then you just learnt nothing useful.

But overall your asking the wrong questions if you trying to make a profit on horse racing.

Hi Wes, and thanks for your reply. The 80% that I obtained was from that other site on the net where you pay for ratings and or buy books etc.

And to answer your question, yep, I've spent countless hours attempting to create a speed ratings spreadsheet. Using the best times for all going at each distance at a heap of tracks (started just with sydney and provincials, then it got out of hand, well over a thousand times in there now).

Then using beaten margins, times, weight variation etc I've converted everything to kilograms and end up with a rating for each horse's last two runs.

I've fumbled about with formulas and got it as automated as I can, with a bit of copying and pasting.

I had hoped I would use this more for trifectas, hence my question as at this point I am not sure which horses in the top order I should be eliminating. Also in this spreadsheet it gives me a rating as to the horses class derived from APM, Win% and Place%. This gives me something to compare my speed ratings to.

Your probably thinking this isn't the way to go, but I've got nothing else to do with my time except playing lawn bowls, building timber furniture and leadlighting,....!

Fingers crossed anyway, shall see how it all goes,

Thanks again, Paul

Hi Paul,

yep, speed ratings are tricky to say the least. i've dabbled with it and decided just looking at final time wasn't the be all and end all. I ended up coming up with 4 different speed figures for each race! Final Time, Early Pace, Raw Final 600m & Adjusted Final 600m (adj for the early pace). Its helpful info to have when analysing the form, but certainly no set & forget method.

Even then it all becomes pointless if there's no 600m sectionals or it rains on the day, etc.

As for days last start, i don't think theres an edge there. I personally use a cut off of 70 days, its not that big a deal. Then there are some that swear by first uppers.

Hi Raven and thanks for your comments, gives me something more to think about. Over the last 4 or so years I followed sectional times very closely (sydney and melbourne). Looked at the tempo of the race etc but towards the end of last year the TVN site where I obtained them from kept letting me down.

I doubt it was TVN's fault, more due to the equipment at the track just not working and needing a repair. So from late 2010 I kind of forgot about them, not sure how the equipment is now functioning.

Just quickly, speaking of TVN, I've now cancelled my austar connection, dont have paytv at all, and went with the Telstra T Box bundle package. I now get TVN streamed via my phone line along with 6 other bigpond channels, amazing..!! If you just want sydney and melbourne racing that is. No big austar payments every month anymore.

I'll continue to play with these speed ratings, see how it all goes,

Regards, Paul

Just as a matter of interest, I trialled my new speed ratings today. I only had time to do 7 races from Rosehill and didnt get to watch any of them or have any individual bets (was playing pennants bowls all day). I did take a small flexi trifecta in each race, boxed around 6 horses together but unfortunately didnt snare the 3 of them.

However this does give me some promise. Here are the races I rated from Rosehill and the order of my ratings where the winner fell. This is the rating from its last start.

Race 2 Fast Clip - equal top rated $8.00 (dlr 14)
Race 3 More Joyous - 2nd top rated $1.30 (dlr 14)
Race 4 Mirjulisa Lass - top rated $67 (dlr 17)
Race 5 Cedarberg - 4th top rated $27 (dlr 21)
Race 6 Rangirandoo - 12th top rated (dlr 14)
Race 8 Syreon - 3rd top rated $17 (dlr 14)
Race 9 Swift Alliance - top rated $4.50 (dlr 14)

All very interesting,

Regards, Paul

Race 8 Syreon - 3rd top rated $17 (dlr 14)

Paul,

Just on Random chance alone in the races you specified there was almost a 40% chance that all horses would fall within 21 days. Using expected winners you had over a 45% chance of having all winners race within 21 days.

This could be just an anomoly and I suggest you gathter a lot more statistics.

45% means the results you have put here are almost 100% due to chance.

The Great Late Don Scott had a crack at trying to win on Trifectas using his ratings.

After dropping approx $1M he gave up on the idea.

With trifectas , one will see all sorts of wild form horses running a place.

One will usually hit the winner using form but trying to hit the 2 other place getters, using form, rarely works & when it does work , it pays peanuts.

So

This approach does work if the right prices are struck.
.Target races with 11-12 runners only.
This helps with the chance to value to risk.
Any less & most divs are low. Any more & it becomes harder to hit the place getters.

.Target 8 horses to figure in the Tri
You will find, that most Trifs are found within 8 selections.

.Target 2 of those horses to win.
A number of winners are found this way in 11-12 runner events using form analysis.

Cost 2 x 56 = 112

It does not matter where you get your 8 horses, the best I have seen, is the pre-post market .
It's SR out performs all rating services, paid or unpaid.

I was using the GTX program by TRB at one stage which had 8 different ratings at ones disposal & one of them was speed ratings which could be tweaked to track conditions a various other interrogations, this one performed the lowest no matter what one did .
Its Pre-post market had the highest SR.

__________________
Cheers.

Thanks Bhagwan and Wesmip, Bhagwan yes I think your dead right, trying to get those correct 3 numbers based on ratings is not easy. Yesterday from this speed rating system I been going on about, out of those 7 races a few of them got the winner and a placing with the trifecta paying $2884 (R5) and $1205 (R4). But with my luck I just couldnt snare that other placing.

With Mirjulisa Lass (R4) paying $67 I had to see why it rated number 1 on my ratings. It's last start it run 3rd at Kensington on a dead track over 1800. Was beaten 1.3L in a mere 3yo Bm71 race (and now going to a 3yo Fillies Gp1). However the time of that race was a class record and even on a dead track. It also dropped 1.5kgs into yesterday. The old grey matter ticks over,..!

In hindsight yesterday I should have backed my 4 top runners in all those 7 races. I think the 21 days must come into it somewhere as I wouldnt like to be using a speed rating from say 70 days ago.

By the way, does anyone follow or enter the tipping contest in the OZ horse racing site which concluded yesterday. I won it, totally elated here now.

Regards, Paul

Don't know which site your talking about ... but congratualtions. Shows your ratings must be worthwhile.