Six Nations
Winner
Taking England @$3.00 & Wales @$4.50

As we start this new season in Super Rugby (now 18 teams), we have more than the usual unknowns to deal with. When we had Super 15, it was easy to use the rating for the SA team that was relegated for the newly promoted one. This time, the Southern Kings rejoin Super Rugby but no SA team was dropped. I gave the Southern Kings the rating for last year’s worst team from SA.

This time, we have two new teams to deal with. Since Argentina is usually competitive in the Rugby World Cup, I gave the Jaguars of Argentina the rating of the middle team from last year. Since Japan had trouble putting a team together, I gave the Sunwolves the rating of last year’s worst team. The Sunwolves open at home. We’ll see how they do. (What is a sunwolf anyway?)

It will take about four weeks for the ratings to be adjusted due to last year’s team’s changing ability and the new teams seeking the right level. Be very careful with your bets until we know who is who this season.

Good luck!

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 1.doc (47.5 KB, 176 views)

Welcome back Ray

Thanks for the welcome back!

In week 1, the problem teams were the new teams, the Jaguars, Sunwolves and S. Kings. The Jaguars did as expected when I put them at the rating of the middle team. The other two did worse than expected as to score difference. I had put the S. Kings at the level of the worst SA team, while the Sunwolves were assumed to be the worst of all. The Sunwolves and S. Kings adjusted downward while their opponents adjusted upward. In week 1, 67% of the predicted winners did win.

Ratings adjust a lot at the start of the season. We’ll probably figure out what a sunwolf looks like too. By week 4, the ratings should have settled out. Please bet very cautiously until then.

Good luck.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 2.doc (47.0 KB, 156 views)

My system made some large adjustments to the ratings of some of the new teams and to a few of the old teams during the first two weeks. The probabilities seem to be pretty accurate now. Of course there is always the unexpected, like the Lions beating the Chiefs for the first time in NZ. The Lions play their third consecutive away game against the Highlanders.

Be cautious when betting during the first four weeks.

Good luck with week 3.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 3.doc (47.0 KB, 160 views)

My probabilities seem to be right on. We were supposed to get 63% of the winners right so far and we did get 63% right. The ratings have settled down. I suggest being cautious for week four as always, just to be safe. I think we are otherwise good to go for 2016.

Good luck,

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 4.doc (47.0 KB, 155 views)

There were a lot of upsets last week. The good news is that the upsets fine tuned this year’s ratings, especially for the new teams. The Sunwolves seem to be rather erratic. The match last week with the Rebels was at home for the Sunwolves, yet they lost by 26 points. The week before that, they played as expected at home.

Good luck with week 5,

Ray

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 5.doc (47.0 KB, 157 views)

After week 4, I mentioned that the ratings seemed to have stabilized. That looks about right since Week 5 went well. My predicted favourites won 7 from 8 (88%), including a win by my favourite Stormers, who were the Bookie’s underdogs, cashing a value bet for Stormers supporters.

The two bottom teams in the computer ratings play this week: the S. Kings are home to the Sunwolves. That may seem kind of boring. No worries. The top two computer teams play too: The Brumbies are home to the Chiefs. All 7 home teams are favoured.

Good luck with Week 6.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 6.doc (47.0 KB, 147 views)

The predictions have been remarkably accurate so far as to the probabilities, score differences and score totals. There were only small differences from the bookmaker offering so far. Last week, the Southern Kings and Rebels rewarded supporters who cashed small value bets for a small overall profit (which is still better than the alternative).

Good luck with week 7.

Ray Stefani

Attached Files

Super Rugby Week 7.doc (47.0 KB, 156 views)

So Im guessing youve tipped the sharks canes reds and kings