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  #11  
Old 10th June 2002, 11:01 AM
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If you like Speed Ratings - Andrew Beyer is the authority there.
He does point out though that his use of speed ratings have not been as successful on turf as dirt. Still, he has a few good books which can be ordered thru major book stores in Australia.

Also try Don Scott - Winning in the 90's. Haven't read it, but most readers recommend it highly. Its about $100 though and hard to get - out of print.

Other than that, keep Sunday's results each week as well as a good form guide from Friday/Sat and sit down and look at the winners. You see some patterns emerging after a while which will help you design your own winning system.


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  #12  
Old 10th June 2002, 07:26 PM
thekey thekey is offline
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As requested by Placegetter I have begun to check this out.

The results for November 2001. Betting in Bris/Syd/Melb on Saturdays are as follows:

selesctions 78
winners 24
SR 30.8%
ave.divi $3.06
LOT (level stakes)-5.9%

However with the staking plan this becomes:
POT +12.1%

It won 3/4 days
Ave bet 0.6% starting bank
biggest bet 9.8% starting bank

comments welcome??

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  #13  
Old 10th June 2002, 08:30 PM
becareful becareful is offline
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The biggest bet of 9.8% of starting bank would worry me A LOT! At that level you would go broke with 10 losing bets (or less if the bet size was still increasing) - that is certainly a strong possibility with a 30% strike rate.

Personally I would never use a system that gives a loss of -5.9% at level stakes - regardless of the staking plan you use it is almost certain that this is going to get you in the end. Could be this is why he is selling the system rather than using it - worked fine for quite a while then broke the bank?
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  #14  
Old 11th June 2002, 10:11 AM
thekey thekey is offline
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Becareful, this is exactly why I never bothered with it in the first place.

I am however investigating a more suitable staking plan (something a bit less aggressive!)as well as applying a filter.
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  #15  
Old 11th June 2002, 02:07 PM
Placegetter Placegetter is offline
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Now you're starting to make sense. Good on you for taking it to the next level, and good luck too!

Placegetter
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  #16  
Old 28th June 2002, 04:40 PM
thekey thekey is offline
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Further investigation has proved fruitless. After 200 bets it looked good and was showing about 20% POT (8%LS) but now after 500 we have fallen in a big hole which I think will be very difficult to extricate ourselves from. There was a very good patch early in the piece but it has been quite dismal since and regressed somewhat to what I expected would happen in the first place.

Conclusion: You won't lose heaps doing this but you won't win either.

Have decided to stop wasting my time fiddling with the past and concentrate on the future.
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