"It can't be done"....I can hear you say.

If you scour through early posts of mine from last year, you'll see that I was of the view that Laying longshots was akin to scouring the carpet in your local TAB for 'bumpers' and 'change' that had fallen out of the winning punters pockets!

That was until I started to take notice of a Longshot Layer aficionado.

I'm reading your minds now.....(Betfair's Lay prices are more than double that of the tote, no value there!) That's correct, but have you ever taken the time to find out what the TRUE odds of a $40 plus horse on the tote, winning??

A step back first, how does all this come about? Most people want to Back favourites, the path to riches right? Bookmakers have to offer competitive prices for these horses. To make up for this bias, and to balance their books, they offer prices far shorter for longshots......."Prove it RP, I dare you!"

OK, over the past 800 days:

Av. SP $................Av.SP %..............Actual % SR.............Actual % SR $
40~49....................2.25%.................... .1.3%.....................$77
50~59....................1.83%.................... .0.8%....................$125
60~69....................1.55%.................... .0.4%....................$250
70~79....................1.34%.................... .0.6%....................$167
80~89....................1.18%.................... .0.4%....................$250
90~99....................1.06%.................... .0.1%..................$1000
100~109.................0.96%....................0 .2%....................$500

So, if you see a horse on the tote with a price of $100 and it's Lay price is under $500 on Betfair, that's a value bet you're looking at! I know that most of you still won't be convinced as the small pays for large risk is like 'embarrassing'.....lol, but that's OK, you keep Backing those favourites and I'll keep withdrawing the 'small change' from the ATM.

Thanks RP for that but I'm not sure what to make of it. Are you saying you only lay horses that are exactly $100 on a tote and under $500 on BF?

Do you lay level stakes or liability?

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale

.....

There's a problem with that RP.
You've taken an average price and average return.
Not all 50/1 shots are the same.
Run it again taking all 50/1 tote shots that are shorter on Betfair and you'll be gobsmacked.

......Even take those close to 50/1

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The purpose of the post was to open minds to what many believe is a write off. Once you're prepared to explore the possibilities and create systems to suit, Laying longshots can be very profitable. We run 26 Lay systems tailored for race field sizes and classes of races. No bots involved but the selections are software generated for initial consideration and then a series of visual cross checks to oncourse fluctuations, previous encounters, speed map etc, before committing to a bet.

The average number of bets per day is 35, 99.7% SR, 0.73% POT and Max Bank Risk 1.5%. Only bet to Liability 1% of Bank.

Of course you're right CP, again a broad brush example only. You can't win at Lay betting with something so over simplified.
The only limitation is the amount you can Lay without grossly affecting the Lay price. Weekdays we use $2k liability.

r u able to get the Lay set.
The few times i have laid I have found if i let it lapse into SP many times only 1/2 gets taken

All our systems have price as a filter and the software reads the average of several bookie SP prices 30 secs before the official close. Therefore all Lay bets are placed SP.
Lay SP is definitely weight of money sensitive. At $2k liability during the week, I have never had an order not filled on Gallops. I have posted previously Betfair statements where I have definitely moved the SP outside of the last traded Lay price big time. I have only had one SP fill shortchanged but from memory it was a $10k + liability bet on a longshot. I did post it on a Schmile thread, but can't find it.

26 October 2013, DNA of a Longshot winner thread

Hehee, the race before that Schmile's, I Layed 10k SP on Ochremani R2 Musw. They didn't have enough money left in the till and could only pay out on $8,600. Never seen that before?

that's interesting - i have along shot lay system in the armoury - it has been 41-42% LOT for 3 years over about 70,000 selections.
but it has been at Tatts bet prices to get that LOT.
i wonder how much the BF prices would improve it - to my disadvantage of course.

Or else i might back around the lay selection(s) and try to bring the market under about 90%.
further investigation required i think.