It’s been awhile since I have posted anything but just lately I’ve been thinking about what is the best indicator as to how a horse is going to perform esp at a metro meeting.

I have come up with 2. These being Current Form and the horses ability to run time.

I look only at the current form, as I believe this is one of the best indicators as to how a horse is going in its current preparation. Some horses do not regain form after a spell, or they change stables and their form improves.

As to their ability to run time, some horses would be flat out running 1.10.00 sec for 1200 metres, while others can run high 1.08 to low 1.09 seconds constantly

So with all that I prefer to bet on horses that have a good current form line and can run good times. I have been following this recently on Brisbane races with some success so it is time to put the selections up here and see how they hold up. The staking plan is levels stakes to win only on all runners

So my tips for Saturday

Race 4 No 6 Three Chances
Race 5 No 1 Miss Judgement
Race 6 No 2 Hello Possums
No 4 Milady Clang
No 10 Nevada Gambler
Race 7 No 7 Omnitrader
No 11 Kutalo
No 13 Testify


If the track is worse than dead , then no bets

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

They look like some solid selections.

Good Luck

I agree about current form but not sure about requiring the ability to run time. Miss Finland can't run time and apart from the massive amount of money she's won, they are calling her a 'champion'!

Miss Finland's:
RACE [all on 'good' tracks]
Race Time
Track Record
Difference in lengths

McNeil Stakes
1.10.65
1.07.74
-17.46

Tranquil Star
1.24.39
1.21.20
-19.14

Edward Manifold
1.37.08
1.34.08
-18.00

Thousand Guineas
1.37.19
1.34.28
-17.46

Cox Plate
2.06.89
2.03.54
-20.10

Oaks
2.37.16
2.33.00
-24.96

Orr Stakes
1.23.24
1.21.20
-12.24

Angus Armanasco
1.36.60
1.34.28
-13.92

Cadbury Guineas
1.36.09
1.34.28
-10.86
---------------------------------------------

Sure the ability of a horse to run a fast sectional helps, but a trainer who has the knack of choosing the right races to suit his runners [race placement] and when to run them [program timing], is more important than ability to run time. There is plenty of horses that can run time who have serious trouble winning due to poor choices by poor trainers and vis-a-vis, as the above times example show.

Crash

I do agree with you about horse placement, but there are always exceptions to the rules and I believe Miss Finland is one of them. In Her case I think you have to look at the class of horse she has been beating. Banc De Fortune won a F/M listed race (Aspiration), which wasn’t a strong field. Just Dancing has won only 1 race and that was a 3 yo Fillies on a heavy track at Randwick back in August last year. As for Tuesday Joy, she was ridden upside down, so you just put the big pen line through that.

All that aside as I don’t want to get into the Miss Finland thing as to if she is a champion or not, I believe the horses ability to run time overall (not just a fast sectional) is a very good indicator as to it’s class and if it will be competitive in it’s current race.

This is Miss Judgments Form line this preparation, so you can see from her current form and her ability to run good time over the distance that she is a good bet for Saturday



Class class 4
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.00 sec
Time Taken 56.72 sec
Time Difference 0.72 sec
Placing unp

Class F/M Class 3
Dist 1010 m
Track Record 56.63 sec
Time Taken 59.28 sec
Time Difference 2.98 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Class 4
Dist 1030 m
Track Record 57.75 sec
Time Taken 58.85 sec
Time Difference 1.10 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Class 5
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.70 sec
Time Taken 58.06 sec
Time Difference 1.36 sec
Placing 1 st

Class F/M RS 0 MW
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.10
Time Taken 1.13.00
Time Difference 4.90 sec
Placing unp

Class Class 6
Dist 1000 m
Track Record 56.70 sec
Time Taken 57.75 sec
Time Difference 1.05 sec
Placing 1 st

Class F/M Listed
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.10
Time Taken 1.09.71
Time Difference 1.61 sec
Placing 2 nd

Class F/M Qual
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.07.88
Time Taken 1.09.21
Time Difference 1.33 sec
Placing 1 st

Class Qual
Dist 1200 m
Track Record 1.08.34
Time Taken 1.08.48
Time Difference 0.14 sec
Placing 2 nd

For me the $2.70 that was available on TAB Sports bet was good odds

Wise One

Bet Smart Bet Wise

I haven't looked at the race she's in yet. What's happening overall is there is some very ordinary horses around. Plenty of Class 3 horses or worse are turning up in G1's and being won by some very ordinary horses too.

Beyond 1100m I'd be looking at recent sectional times of runners for pointers rather than race times as mostly it's sit and sprint now.

Well I've looked at the race and I'd want more than $2.70 to back Miss Judgment. She might very well win but is up 4kg and is against a fast one:
Chosen Goddess who is only up 1/2 a kg. and has a top jock too. It won second up last prep. and is second up here. Both horses are mid-pacers and have reasonable barriers.

In the case of Miss Judgement I know that she is up 4 kg, but the race has been scaled up 2 kg.

As for Chosen Goddess, she does have very good recent form (won both of her last 2 starts), but she has only won 1 race in a respectable time (1.91 sec outside track record time). As for her second up record she won a F/M Mdn, which is slightly differnet in class to a F/M Listed. Also she is up in class and up in weight (the double whammy), where as Miss Judgement is down in class and up in weigh.

So for me personally I would prefer to back a horse with good current form and a proven record that they can run time


Wise One


Bet Smart Bet Wise

How about using the neurals, using just Current Form and Time Rating on 5?

selections for the same races at eagle farm would be:

Race 4: 11 Falconten
Race 5: 8 No Mistake
Race 6: 10 Nevada Gambler
Race 7: 6 Messiaen

The ratings from the form service I use [very good ratings] have Miss Judgment on 15 and Chosen Goddess on 17. Both are good at the track and I think Chosen Goddess is a definite improver. What I would back is the one with the best value as I think either could win.

Chuck has thrown another horse in the mix which [haven't checked] is probably a chance too. If there are 3 chances, $2.70 is lousy odds for any horse in the race.

Race 4: 11 Falconten 1st $20.60 & $4.70
Race 5: 8 No Mistake XXX
Race 6: 10 Nevada Gambler XXX
Race 7: 6 Messiaen 3rd $2.90