lol, I laid him at 20 just now !!!!, but I can afford to after catching Obama for good money @ 2.26.

Grand Armee

I'm Layer "Type A", although I never think a horse has no chance, there's always the chance of a "Bradbury". Therefore my selections must be unders. I have a bit of an outside-the-square approach to making my selections that over time has proved to my advantage. Unlike Mark I'm a high volume layer and churn the bank making the most of a small advantage.

Mark, I'd have layed Danewin Lodge if I could have got my price. I layed the following. I'd normally have ignored Les Roses but was trying something new on this race. I managed to green up on it so there'd be no real damage done.

RAND05-02 Les Roses
RAND05-03 Viva Caro
RAND05-04 Jujulio

Reading this thread highlights on of the things I like most about punting. There's no one way to make a success of it. You can do it your own way and still finish ahead.

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Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Thanks guys, for your input. I am interested because you guys are, from what I can gather, real "traders". I have known both types of people, the traders and the analysts. Originally, when I was learning to be the latter, I blindly considered that the analyst was superior to the trader. I figured, on reading books by people like Scott, Beyer etc that the person who could be BETTER than the market was the true King of the game. Traders didn't occur to me. Then, when I was working amongst traders, I began to see that side of the game, too. On racing trading floors, a lot of money moves around between bookmakers and totes, sometimes without much input from the punters at all!

It is my firm opinion, now, that the true King of the game is the person who can master both. If you are an excellent form analyst, and an excellent trader, surely you have the world at your feet.

For example - Mark is trying to back the field at 97% at Southwell, having laid them at 105%. Nice piece of trading, you'll have a nice guaranteed profit. That's straight, pure trading.

What if, though, Mark (or Mark's split personality, let's call him Kram), had done the form for the race also. Kram said, "Mark, I've done the form. It's a three horse race, but really, it's only a two horse race. Liz Long cannot win. It's $17.50 to back at the moment, $25 to lay. Just lay it, don't waste our money, Mark, backing it also. Further, don't lay Just Mossie. Back him, but don't lay him. The fave, Home, is his right price, trade your way on him."

If, overall, Kram is a better analyst than the market, then he will improve your figures. Liz Long runs a long last, Home and Just Mossie fight it out - whoever wins it's not a worry, you have your position.

The "analyst" approach, where the punter takes the market on, and the "trader" approach, where the punter works with the market, are like Yin and Yang, they are real opposites but intertwined. The "analyst" will have big peaks and big troughs, such as he/she must when they are taking the market on, whereas the trader will have a LOT smoother ride. It really does seem to me, though, that the best method of all is to perfect them both.

Oh I think my post snuck in there. I'm sure Grand Armee wasn't meaning me when he said "you guys".

Mark are you using the stay in running on the UK markets? Works great for the soccer too.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

The trader has a smooth ride when he gets matched, when he doesn't get matched, it quite a bumpy ride downhill

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In play is the greatest thing since sliced bread

__________________
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http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
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I had a little dabble the other night for mixed results. I'm finding it hard to stay up late.

Yes, my crap selection method made a profit if you were BACKING them...not laying them.

It does make sense.

Yea for sure, it doesn't mean that you won't.

Cheers

OK because Mark (and Kram) mentioned that race at Southwell, I've had a little play on it, as a trader, just for a bit of fun. I'll tell you what I've done, we'll see how it works out. At this point, I am likely to get burned!


I have laid the fave, "Home", at $1.41, for $1000, risking $410. I now have a bet up, waiting to be matched, wanting to have $940 on it, at $1.50. If through some miracle this bet were matched, I would make a $60 profit (pre commission), whichever horse of the three won. I have checked the box "Keep in play" so that perhaps the horse might be matched midrace.

Let's see what happens...... though I fear the worst!

Nothing like jumpingin boots and all

What favourite at $1.41???

Are you talking Winthorpe the place, man you are gutsy, place market is very tough to crack in play.

Good luck.

FWIW If it were me, I'd be backing him $1,000 the win @ $3.20, then laying in play and otherwise at 100 @ $3.00, 200 @ $2.80 300 @ $2.60 $400 @ $2.40 and greening up on the last one.

The fluctuations are far better on the win market in play.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg