RACE 5

6 FREE DREAM $2.2
1 WHERE'S BRETT $4.1
4 BJORKMAN $10
8 OCEAN'S OWN $16
5 CARLINFORD STEWY $18
2 PARTO'S SIMBA $20
7 DORA AGOGO $25
9 MISS DEFECTIVE $150

I spent a bit of time trying to find the correct wager on this Race.
I'll try and continue doing same on tonights Meeting.

The Only Wager that is not fraught with danger is the Exacta.
#6 Free Dream leads all the way and is tracked home by #1 Wild Brett who is advantaged by the Box.

But getting the result is pointless unless the reward is worth the risk.
I have the Exacta as a $4.50 chance and if it ain't paying at least that , close to start time, then the Wager is off.

EXACTA 6 - 1 for $5

1 GALAXY HIGH $4.7
8 PUBS GALORE $4.7
3 OSKA NEVEELK $6
2 PEGGY MAY $6.5
7 HARDAWAY MASTER $8
6 LAVALIERE $12
4 ONE STONE TWINK $33
5 RUGGED PATH $50

The Watchdog has #2 Peggy May at short Odds to lead all the way.
I'm pretty bad at backing lay dogs, but I'll be doing Exotics with the top 4 selections.
All the literature says I should leave the Favourite out due to it being my perceieved Underlay.

Doesn't matter.
Exotics with the top 4 for me, but ain't sure as yet what they are.
The Market will let me know, but hopefully I can stay out of this mess.

Box Quinella the top 3 selections for $2 seems best or perhaps a Box Exacta for $1 instead.

7 WHAT SIZE $2.6
4 GO DEONNIE $6.5
1 SEISMIC GREEN $7.5
6 DAINTREE LOVER $9
8 YORGI MILO $15
3 BEE FIFTY ONE $15
2 FLYING PIECES $20
5 PLATINUM RYDER $33

Possible leaders are #2 , #4 and the unlikely #8
#7 What Size will be not far behind them and is Classes of ability better than them and simply wins.
The concern is that Yorgi jumps quickly and cuts in messing things up.
If that don't happen, Get in the Queue.

$10 a Win on #7

If too short, then a Quinella of 1 and 4 for $1
In fact , I'm taking the Quinella anyway.

16
6
123678
7

$5 gets back 40%

Heres what I found in a very difficult race with the distance being unsuitable for most

4 JALYN JONES $4.5
8 STAGGER INN $5
2 KELANDY $6
7 JEDDY BOY $7
6 WOT PRICE PINK $11
3 UNSMASHABLE $11
1 GOVERNATOR $12
5 SMURF'S IL DIVO $70

I'll take a Box FlexTrifecta and a Box Flexi4 for $4 and $2 on my top 4 selections

Hi Moeee,
for mine
race 5 > WHERE'S BRETT
race 7 > PEGGY MAY
race 8 > GO DEONNIE
race 9 > JALYN JONES

Good luck

Hi Lomaca.

You appear to have found animals that are expected to either get away in front, or to suffer zero interference.

There is only one thing missing from your selections - A minimum acceptable Price.
That is unless you feel the General Consensus knows what Price they should be.
And if that is the case, then you do not have an edge, unless you can bet them at better than starting Price, because the TAB won't give you Overlays, because that is not how it works.

I'm getting smashed - whats new?

Even if the Favourite wins the Last Leg, it won't pay enough to cover my wagers.

I really need to spend more time considering the start.
Its a shame that the vision of most starts doesn't show head on.

I suppose it ain't really important to me at the minute because I'm too stubborn to see its importance, to my own detriment.

Moeee,
sorry to disappoint you, but in both, my horse racing endeavours and now in the greys, I go by my first or second selection regardless of price.

Qualifiers:
1. in horse racing I deliberately skew my rating to horses capable and likely to win but ignored by punters.
Never bet for a win at less then $2 and never for the place under $3 give or take 10%

with dogs I'm still learning so I except $1.80 as the lowest for the win
and try to get at least $1.20 for the place.

Not easy but then again prices at the dogs do surprise, I had a winner at $1.6 and paid $2.1 for the place.

I followed your ratings and quite frankly, if you just followed your selections in order and did not regard your own prices as "gold standard" set in stone, and must have "overlays" than you would as they say, rolling in money.

You must remember that the prices we work out are very subjective, all it takes is a change in a divisor or multiplier and you get a different price.
The only true price is what goes into your account at the finish.

Good luck

I don't keep records, but I did notice my win bets over the past 2 years on Betfair , were losers.
And over the past 2 years I have managed to stay square.
So what this means is I am rubbish at win betting, and less so at Exotic betting.

The Formula I am using for my Prices is obviously wrong for the win.
You would think after 2 years, maybe more like 3 now, I'ld be better at it.
But I chop and change.
I keep saying tomorrow I will get it right, but mess up again.

Well done Lomaca for your tips tonight.
2 out of 3 so far , and an excellent chance of getting the 4th home.

I'm down $15 due to to Win wagers.
Free Dream and Oscar Nevelk.
I let What Size run for the Quaddie only, but probably wouldn't got Overs anyway.