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#41
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I meant the 'crowd' is loosing 15% on their bet outlay based on their overall best average win SR [30%] and the prices returned for the win after TAB take, not before it.
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#42
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query on ROI
Hi Woof,
You said: Quote"3-dog box: 80 hits out of 1286 races (6.22%), average payoff is $89.66, and the ROI is a miserable -53.52%. (BTW, the 6.22% hits is very reasonable for a three-dog box.) The HANDICAP isn't important. The WAGERING means the world! Just LOOK at that spread. The BAD wager has a 53% LOSS and the GOOD wager has almost a 63% PROFIT! All based on the exact same handicap. In all my years at the track, I've never seen ANYONE that can improve their HANDICAPPING from a 53% loss to a 63% profit. But you CAN improve that much if you study wagering." endquote[/QUOTE] (I still haven't mastered the art of quoting) Try as I might I can only make that a ROI of -7.04%. If the average payout were exactly half of your $89.66, i.e $44.83 then the ROI would be -53.52%. I don't wish to sound patronising or sycophantic but your contributions to this thread have been the most enlightening I've seen. Many thanks Last edited by foxwood : 1st February 2005 at 07:55 PM. Reason: spacing for clarity |
#43
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Many thanks for the kind words.
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#44
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[QUOTE=woof43]Duritz,
This is where Handicapping, pricing (assigning probabilities) betting overs and winning starts. Woof43 Hi! I read your reply to Duritz with great interest. Good stuff!!! I have studied statistical analysis, (have to admit not willingly it was just a subject we had to do), and never thought of putting it to good use, until I read your post. Always tried to improve my ratings and now I realise it is nearly as good as it gets (or as good as I can make it) and now I have to find a way to make it more profitable. Sometimes we need just a nudge in the right direction to go forward. Thank's for your input. Ps. Duritz! If you read this, my apologies for the use of parentheses TM(Duritz) |
#45
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lomaca,
Could you please read my reply to you on the February Tipping Comp thread. |
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