I feel that topsy99's theories make a lot of sense. As an alternative to my own data base, I see that RacingandSports have a tab in their home page Horse Records Search for Black Type performances by calendar year. If you know your Group/Listed races schedule, this would seem to easily convert to close to what topsy99 draws on. Anyone know of a better way of identifying Group/Listed performances by horse?
Cheers,
Jackact

I need help here, topsy99!
I have calculated Summer Cup ratings based on my understanding of your rules, and using Colin Tidy's Betchoice fixed prices. Am I close to your figures??
Rockwood 5
Music Review 0.9
Brave Lancer 9.2
Zazabeau 0.7
Scouting Wide 0.8
Solid Billing 6
Bright Mind 0.8
Dane Fontaine 2.6
Which would make Brave Lancer the best value, followed by Solid Billing then Rockwood.

Not a bad result if backed the top three value horses - 1st ($12 win) and 3rd.

have had weekend with grandchildren and watched most races.
good results. your numbers are pretty good on the summer cup.
wasnt Jim Cassidy a treat on Solid Billing. I missed him recently apparently had a gardening accident.

One of the risks and rules of our system is not to cherry pick. I am as wary of Brave Lancer as any of you. as matter of fact had a weekend at Thredbo with Chairman of Wyong jockey club in 2005 who was spruiking it in the geelong cup that year. got knocked on the line by On a jeune. But it has changed trainers I think was J McNair (Wyong trainer) back in those days. back to the figures.
New Spice was a good result in Ascot. Also and not sure if any betting on this - Vosne Romanee won the group 1 in Ellerslie yesterday with 22 points at 33/1 . I guess the theory proves we dont know when they will perform but somebody does and they are more entitled than we are.
The odds are good. with New Spice at 20/1/ with 13 points was worth a lash.
Doing the numbers is an identifiable value that i have found I cant define by doing barriers, weights, margins, form and cuts the random betting action. By including all of the variables and possibilities sends me silly. maybe not many big results each saturday but at least a few winners and potential for some odds.
Again I would like to commend Jim Cassidy on his ride yesterday I recall him winning last years Doncaster and Derby by perfectly judged rides . its good to seem him back.
Good luck will keep an eye on this page in future and confirm my figures to you. Particulary the higher ones.

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laurie

A week ago someone asked if performs better in Black Type than ordinary.

No. all races are considered as far as looking for a bet.
regards

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laurie

Thanks, topsy99, its nice to know my figures aren't way out.
I agree with your high opinion of J Cassidy. A few years ago, friends of mine raced a horse (out of Canberra) which used to throw its head about in races, clearly affecting its performance. Jim rode it three times in midweek races, for a win. What he did, though, was to teach the horse to race better. Later it won and was placed at Saturday meetings (other jockeys), and the owners were sure it was Jim's guidance that improved the animal's racing manners.
Good punting,
Jackact

Here are my figures for the Perth Cup, using Betchoice fixed odds as at Thursday midday. (First figure is points, second figure is points/10*price to arrive at Rating):
Newport 10.66, 10.6
Largo Lad 11, 13.2
Lords Ransom 8.66, 2.6
Star Encounter 9.5, 17.1
Gondorff 7, 4.1
Right Fong 2, 1.6
Friars Touch 0.33, 2.7
Geyser Peak 1, 4.1
Hadabeclorka 6.5, 39.7
Lambton Castle 2, 12.2
Ma Chienne 5.5, 4.4
Markus Maximus 11, 14.3
New Spice 4, 7.6
Sentenza 1, 5.1
Almohad 1, 1.5
Truckin Tobie 0.5, 3
Esroh 3, 30.3
Neige 1, 20.1The ratings for the emergencies are probably inflated by the risk that they will not get a start, so the Rating should be re calculated on the final field. However, on what we have, Hadabeclorka is top value, followed by Esroh, then Neige, then Markus Maximus and Largo Lad. Betting strategies on final field?? Back the top three Raters for a win and place? Combine in duets?

Jackact

my figs. newport 22 largo lad 11 lords ransom 12 star encounter gondorff 8 right fong 3 friars touch 3 geyser peak 2 hadabeclorka 4 lambton castle 3 ma chienne 5 markus maximus 12 new spice 15 sentenza 2 almohad 2 truckin tobie 1 esroh 3 neige 1.


word of caution . dont let your ratings be overtaken by wild odds. when rating with prices a 100/1 shot has an unreal influence on your rating and i tend to work from the best/highest listed rating down. in this case newport, lords ransom new spice star encounter gondorff

i note that you have lambton castle has 12 rating i cant see that.
points divided by 10 * price divided by year since last performed in a listed race. at 10/1 this gives lambton castle rating of 2 he would need to be 60/1 for 12 (which could be right) but judgement is required and would suggest a saver bet rather than being very bold but who knows.


be brave but follow the numbers.

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laurie

each weekend i spend at my holiday house on the huon river in tasmania and watch the races and punt all saturday afternoon. after the races are over i would review what had happed during the day and constantly this method delivered the results and all my other ancilliary bets (my opinion of who would win on barriers weights etc) would fritter away my money. my eagerness to punt slewed my punting to a wasteful experience.

in the calculation. it is designed not to over bet on long prices.
e.g. a 1 pointer could be 10/1 and a current year performer to be a $1 bet. this could even be would back by increasing the division by 10. but you could be lucky and it comes off which it will eventually.
In the above case a two year since listed placing would need to be 20/1 to be a $1 (unit) bet.
But as i said my wasteful experiences proved that i was no judge at picking winners no matter how good they looked . good luck for tomorrow.

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laurie

Thanks heaps for your advice, tops99. Yes, I had Lambton Castle on 2 points, which times the odds/10 I got to 12.2 - he is $61& with Betchoice.
I can see how long shots can corrupt the pattern of final ratings. At 61, Hadabeclorka is a huge risk as he has not won beyond 1400m. Still, he seems to be going OK now they are trying him over longer (finally, at 8YO). Esroh would not seem to up to this field, hence the 100/1 and your warning!
Thanks again for your help.
Jackact