Hi, Chrome Prince.

Are you saying that you back every (almost) Betfair Fave for a 34% POT? If so, this seems extremely generous because I think it may have been Wesmip1 who stated on this forum that backing every Betfair fave over a certain extensive period produced a 4 or 5% POT. I'm not aware if this took into account Betfair's takeout.

Assuming that backing the TAB fave has an overall loss of 15%, that would mean that to break-even on the TAB a $3.00 TAB winner should hypothetically be approx $3.45 (15% X $3.00). Then to obtain a further 34% on Betfair, the price would be approximately $4.62 which does not include Betfair's takeout. I have seen many instances where this is reality but it's difficult to believe it can be sustained over a long period.

Do you back the fave at the death? I think more often than not that the fave, especially the pronounced ones, firm at the end of betting.

As a matter of interest, I have just looked at Sapphire Coast R2 where the fave coinicidentally won. NSW TAB divvy was $3.50 and the last trade on Betfair was $4.10 ($3.90 taking into account the 5% reduction). Looking at the graph, the $4.10 price was about the shortest available which as mentioned, was at the death. So, the chances are that a much better price could easily have been achieved.

Interestingly, BAT shows the winner at $3.95 which I have been informed that this does not include Betfair's takeout. If Wesmip1 got his figures from BAT that might explain why his POT is lower than yours.

For anyone rushing to emulate CP's alleged 34% by blindly backing Betfair favourites.

According to BAT Australian data of nearly 8,000 markets:

Backing Betfair favourites gives a 96% ROT. After which you need to subtract commission.

BAT, like SP, or TAB price = waste of time.

BAT is useless..

a) often the figure are immensely wrong.
Horse trades last at $3.50, reported as $1.34

b)BAT gives the very last traded price.

C)BAT gives Betfair favourite, not bookie favourite at OPENING.

d)BAT does not record what was available beforehorse was backed in.

This all adds up to 34% after commission.

Download the Betfair historical data and take the median price traded for the worse case scenario.

I've often been matched at up to 40% better than the last traded price.

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This is where backtesting falls down a little, you never asked for a price, so you never got it and it never traded.

I have asked for ridiculous prices on horses that I never expected to get matched on and got matched 5 times.

I need to clarify that horses that trade below what I consider value to me, I let go, but that would be less than 10% of them.

At some point nearly all trade at my required price, because I asked for it.

There are massive variations or fluctuations on betfair prices that can be taken advantage of.

Also, some favourites do not end up as favourite, so I get those winners too.

The assessed odds maybe $2.50 favourite, but it might trade at $4.50 second favourite.

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Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
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Video overview of RaceCensus here:
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Hi Chrome,
Can you say what assessed ratings market you look at.

Cheers.

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Cheers.