G'day

Will go thru the jockey's for tomorrow's two races later tonight, but I would like to try laying as follows:

Select the horse with the jockey that has the lowest strike rate. Jockey must not be riding on 1st, 2nd or 3rd priced favourite.

Will not be "betting" as such, just selecting a horse and seeing if it results in a WIN and subsequently a losing bet for me if it was laid.

What do you think? Should there be a strike rate max? If so what do you suggest should be the highest we should go for a jockey's strike rate, 20%?

King, if you haven't got anything constructive to say can you kindly not post in my threads... Thanks..

Don't worry I don't take offence and do not mean offence but I don't want all my threads filled with offtopic posts

Cheers

hehehe.. where do we start....here.........

Pengo that post on your SP fav that started 2nd fav. Give it to me once more and that will last me another few days ....

"Constructive" ... i love it.

p.s. What System #7 so soon ?? We've only just got the hang of last weeks 6 systems.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

At 20% your looking at half decent Jocks. Try 10% maybe?

System #1 seems to be doing alright, so shhh you.

Have to agree with you crash. eg. B. Rawiller 178 winners in the last 12 months SR 18.5%

The SP Fav that started 2nd fav ... abort abort abort .. this one's good enough

However permision to don a hard hard hat & enter your 'construction' site foreman Pengo?

http://www.racingnsw.com.au/page.asp?parm=ra.strikerate

Ave bottom jock on Saturdays 5-10%. Weekdays 1%

20% !!!

You didnt even think it out before you made up this system, did you Pengo
You bet against even the 4th fav as low as $8+ on betfair and take a 20% jock << you do the math this time around. How would you be laying 20's ???

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hard hat off & ........i just stole your sparky & concretor. Something about orange notes in their holiday pay & O' Health & Safety not up to scratch on the construction site / thread.

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

I'm still working the details out for this sytem, thats why I asked a question I have no idea what a "good" strike rate is for a jockey so, thought I'd ask those who have a clue to advise.

Based on advice, we will have to limit selections to a jockey with no more than a strike rate of 10%.

It would be interesting to see how we would go laying more than one jockey with a crap strike rate per race, you know to try and magnify our gains.

Pengo

if it was a Saturday and the lowest jock was around 10%. Forget what ranked fav they are the 10% should be in line with those odds.
If you have 100 races that jock will get up 10 times. You cant lay more then $10 - comission - profit. << & even thats if it were a perfect world and you were soley betting on that same jock every race he rides. But your not.

Then theres the fact that your manipulating statistics because your changing jockeys most races and will then have to take run of outs into consideration over more then 1 jockey. i.e. you might be jumping over from jockey to jockey to jockey who had just won previous and wont ride another one for along time to stay in touch with their own personal strike rate.
You either stick to 1 jock or it wont work. Your looking at a jocks strike rates but becuase your not betting on them every race they ride = whats the point of betting based on jockeys strike rates? << your not actually betting on that figure anyway. Your just laying another horse based on a bad jock. Its nothing more then laying a horse based on a bad barrier or bad whatever. The jocks figures are used to identify the weak link your after. Nothing more. Forget all the figures & strike rates that go with it, 1% or 10% or 20% its all irrelavent.
All you have is a system based on picking out the worse jockey in the race, who will rarely be one of the favs anyway. Its a nothing system

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Its the ones you leave, not the ones you take, that give you the margin

Thanks for stating the obvious....

I understand using the strike rate on different horses is bad, but then that stat is based on all his/her rides and should define their talent/ability.

The jumping from jockey is the concern I do agree, I could find that I am jumping from a jockey who didn't win only to then lose the lay as I jump to a jockey who is close to striking. Thats said if I'm only selecting jockey's based on their strike rate, then its most likely I'll be selecting the same jockey's.

Yes I am trying to identify a weak link, thats the whole point. If its a nothing jockey on a nothing horse then laying it should be profitable.

Just looking at the s/r for some vic jockeys with sub 10% S/Rs and some have made a few million in prize money.. Tho I guess they've prolly be riding for a decade heh.