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  #11  
Old 8th February 2020, 10:58 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
For the week I had tried to match a bet or lay on 18,086 selections. I put a total of $10,784,252 of bets/lays into the market


Just a question, with the amounts above with your lay bets that refers to the actual bet? correct?

Do you work with P.O.T differently with lay bets as with win bets? or even if you consider this.

I know i have seen before when working with lay bets that P.O.T is worked out on the potential liability, so on a bet if you had a liability of $1000 and your stake was $100 and you won, your P.O.T would be 10%

I prefer to work with R.O.I, if i start the day with $1000 bank and win $100 then my R.O.I is 10%
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  #12  
Old 8th February 2020, 11:12 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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On the races i've recorded so far their top 4 raters win about 75% of the races. They are also probably the best rating i've seen at being closely correlated to the actual prices of the market. Definitely some room there to use them and be profitable I feel. Won't go into it any further but its one of the ratings i'm tracking.
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  #13  
Old 8th February 2020, 11:25 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Shaun
Just a question, with the amounts above with your lay bets that refers to the actual bet? correct?

Do you work with P.O.T differently with lay bets as with win bets? or even if you consider this.

I know i have seen before when working with lay bets that P.O.T is worked out on the potential liability, so on a bet if you had a liability of $1000 and your stake was $100 and you won, your P.O.T would be 10%

I prefer to work with R.O.I, if i start the day with $1000 bank and win $100 then my R.O.I is 10%


Lays are still a bet. Its just that you are betting them to lose and getting very low odds (a lay on a horse at $100 is equivalent to backing a horse at $1.01).

So the above includes my lay liabilities and back liabilities. Really a liability is just what you risked in the market. if you back a $2.00 chance for $100 that is the same as laying a $101 chance to win $1.00. You still are risking $100 regardless of it is is a lay or a bet.

Yes your example is right with the POT that is why my POT is only $1000 per $1,000,000 risked. If you are laying horses above $100 (which I do regularly if it makes sense) you are getting a POT on the lay of less than 1%. Throw in a few losses and your POT can be really low especially if you are turning over a lot.

As you said ROI is a much better figure to use when looking at how you are travelling. As you know my POT was very low last year but my ROI for my starting back at the beginning of 2019 was a 101% return.

So my POT < 1% but my ROI > 100%.

But keep in mind eventually your banks get to a point where you can't keep putting more and more money into the starting bank. I pull some out to invest elsewhere, some for personal expenses that I enjoy (coffee, eating out, etc) and a whole lot more for holidays with the family. So my starting bank will not be double what it was for this year compared to last year. Its also harder to bet more and more when you get up to the larger amounts. I have been analysing my selections and I can be providing up to 80% of the money matched on my selections on betfair in some races. Its usually around 15%-30% though but even at 30% I can be affecting the odds and eroding my value. This is why I am looking to scale out to other sports and new systems in order to increase my turnover.
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  #14  
Old 8th February 2020, 11:33 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
On the races i've recorded so far their top 4 raters win about 75% of the races. They are also probably the best rating i've seen at being closely correlated to the actual prices of the market. Definitely some room there to use them and be profitable I feel. Won't go into it any further but its one of the ratings i'm tracking.


This is what I have recorded.

Since they started posting (2019-06-18) if you had bet all their selections with an edge of at least 2% to their rated price you will have made 21067 selections with 2310 winners (10.97% strike rate) for a profit of 194 units. That is Betfair SP figures so this was achievable easily by putting in a minimum odds with a MARKET ON CLOSE bet. That is across all race types and odds ranges.
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  #15  
Old 9th February 2020, 09:52 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by UselessBettor
I am happy with the week and I am just short of a new bank high by $242. So with a profitable day today I should shoot past that amount to a new bank high.


Yesterday was a profit of $3258 pushing me to a new bank high That just means I have recovered the previous losses and I can start to pull out cash again into other investments.
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  #16  
Old 9th February 2020, 10:54 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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Thats my ultimate goal, get to a point where a portion of the money i'm winning on betting can be directed to my share portfolio and 'MAYBE' retire early. Congrats on the new bankroll high, I'm getting close to recovering my drawdown and hitting a new high soon too, its a great feeling when you do it.
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  #17  
Old 9th February 2020, 01:41 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by evajb001
Thats my ultimate goal, get to a point where a portion of the money i'm winning on betting can be directed to my share portfolio and 'MAYBE' retire early. Congrats on the new bankroll high, I'm getting close to recovering my drawdown and hitting a new high soon too, its a great feeling when you do it.


I hope you hit that bank high soon.

Its inevitable that you won't be at a bank high every day. Last year I was at a bank high (at end of day as I record results daily) only 110 times. That is only 30% of the time.

This year it has only been at a bank high 9 days of the 39 days so far recorded. That is even worse at only 23%. It was low as I was in the red for $2077 before starting the year with a carryover loss from the end of December.
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  #18  
Old 11th February 2020, 07:38 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Just a quick update. This week so far has been a drain on the account. I have lost big overseas and there isn't much happening in Australia with Abandoned meetings across all three codes. Still I have a few days to pull back some money into the account.
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  #19  
Old 15th February 2020, 12:54 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Horrible week again this week.

I lost big in Singapore and the US this week and it couldn't be offset with wins in Australia as we had so many abandoned meetings across all 3 codes.

It gave me some motivation to relook at how I was betting and I have made some significant changes. I should get a boost in POT as my turnover will decrease. I have taken out some of the high turnover commission generating systems for the next few weeks to see how it works.

Here are the results:

3258.96
-10486.53
1732.82
-1462.2
-3270.66
762.6
1034.78

3 losing days and 3 winning days. The big losing day was the issue which resulted in a losing week of $8430.

The month now sits at a profit of only $4196 for the 2 weeks. I know its not terrible but its not great either.

I am looking for a smoother run going forward over the next couple of weeks if the revised set of systems can work as expected.
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  #20  
Old 22nd March 2020, 09:08 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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How are you doing mate? been awhile since we heard from you.
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