Hi,

I am new to all of this and had a couple of questions which I hope you can answer.

1. When do you know the system is good enough to use ?
2. How many races are acceptable for testing before using a system ?

I am just asking as I have been testing a system I devised. It was based on analysis of races over a 1 month period ( back with 2003 data )

I then ran the system over various time frames in the future ( During 2004 and 2005) and it has performed well.

Is this how I should be testing systems ? (ie I have not back fitted to the best combination over the last few years).

Without giving away too much detail on the system, the figures it has produced are :

These figures are based on an even staking plan of 1% of bank per race.

Avg bets per week : 15
WIN strike rate : 43%
Avg WIN POT % : 21%
Place strike Rate : 82%
Avg place POT % : 39%

I have tested this manually on over 500 Bets at different time frames (different months, years )

Should I start to use the system live ? Or do I need more testing. My inital estimate for testing was 1000 bets but since I do this manually it can take forever to input all of the required data. Another 500 bets could take me 2-3 weeks input.

Also is there any other way I should be testing ? I thought taking the system over various timeframes would be the best way before running it live.

Any advice would be appreciated.

Thanks

Looks to me like your basic approach is pretty sound, avoiding backfitting and testing over various timeframes. A ball park figure of 1000 bets is what I would use as a minimum testing area but there are guys here with more statistics knowledge than I who will advise you better with reference to your strike rate etc.
How are you testing? I read you are inputing the data so I assume you are testing on a computer in some way. If so there are CSV files (data separated with commas) of results on a few sites which you may be able to download and put into your system for testing.
Sounds like a good system so far, though how you derived it based on the results of 1 month's races I've no idea. Best of luck anyway.

KV

If you are comfortable with your selection process then are you currently running the system on paper. are the results consistent? Then go with it with small bets building up in line with your winnings. If you are not running the system on paper then do so. If the results are not consistant then back to the drawing board, Best of luck Beton

Just going on your results data alone, I can see some serious problems with your system.

Firstly, a win strike rate of 43% never has, and never will, produce a *permanent* POT of 21%. You can get that type of POT over 100 or 500 or 1000 etc races BUT, and this is immensely important to understand, the figures MUST eventually even out...... during this evening out process which is inevitable, you must be in loss, not profit.
A 43% strike rate (which IS definitely permanently achieveable) will normally produce a marginal loss over the very long term, regardless of staking methods used. A very smart professional, who's on the ball and extremely diligent may, just may, scratch out a 1% or 2 % POT on a *permanent* basis from a strike rate of 43%.

There's another serious problem with your results..... it's the high place strike rate. A *genuine and permanent* 43% win strike rate should be accompanied by a lower place strike rate than your 82%. If it's not then it shows there is fault with the win selection method used. So, *Long term* that 43% win strike rate will most likely come down by several percent........ and that will guarantee a long term loss of several percent on turnover.

Wish I could bring better news..... but those are the facts.

There is nothing like real time testing....i have nothing against testing on paper and i know those that will test 1000s of races trends change and so do betting habits....get a bank together something you are comfortable with loseing and go for it....start out small...like $100 bank betting 2% if you can make a profit and maintain it then increase the bank and increase the bets.....this is the only way to know....many systems work great on paper but in the betting ring the punter is the one to fall apart.

All,

Thanks for the input. I will run it over a lot more data before I go real time.
I will heed Guitar Jim's advice and see how it goes over a longer period of data. I might aim for 2000 or 3000 bets before taking the results seriously.

If I am happy at that stage I will take it live and see how it fairs.
Hopefully I will be confident enough in it at that stage to ride the ups and downs if and only if it is in profit.

If anyone has anymore advice please post it ... the more advice the better.

Thanks everyone.

I agree with Shaun, and for what it's worth, paper trading is a waste of time & effort. Nowhere in paper trading are the emotional ups & downs factored in. If you think your method has a chance of survival, put down the cold hard cash, and start this Saturday, don't delay.

Probably your best way to make a profit from this is to actually take a *gamble*.

A system with a nice, high strike rate of around 43% will go through periods where profit may be taken (depending on when one starts betting and when one finishes betting). It will also go through periods of loss. It's impossible to precisely predict where the profit surges happen and where the loss stages happen.

My advice is start betting small, it's not worth risking large money. Pick any date to start your actual, real world betting; then immediately pick a specific date to finish betting. If at the end of that finish date you are in front, even if it is just $1 in front, then stop using your system for good: *Never use it again*....... that is the only way to guarantee a profit. If at the end of the finish date you are in loss, then also stop using the system for good: Accept the loss and NEVER chase that loss.

That's the best chance you'll have of success. .

I'm always a bit intimidated by people who talk with such authority, I guess I take people at face value to easily, but what you say here Guitar Jim appears to me to be a whole load of cobblers (and I mean that in the nicest possible way - I'm not looking to start a slanging match).
Now it's possible you're a mathematical genius or know of things I don't but on the surface I can see little logic in what you say.
Why can't a strike rate of 43%, or any other percent for that matter if the average divvy is right, produce a permanent POT of 21%. Without knowing more about how his system works I don't see any way you can make this statement.
Why should a 43% win strike rate be accompanied by a lower than 82% place strike rate. To me that seems very reasonable. If he picks the winner 43% of the time he has 57% of races left. If he gets the next best horse in 43% of them that means he is 1st or second in 43 + (0.43 x 57) = 67.5%. If he gets the next best horse in 43 % of the remaining 32.5% of races he has 1, 2 or 3 in 81.5% of races.
Finally you say use the system and if you are winning at the end of a set period stop using it. If he is only a dollar ahead maybe yes, improve it if he can, but if he is well ahead keep going. That's what the system is for.
What I do agree with is start betting small. I've tested systems with dollar bets. It makes it so much more real. There is no saying I would have done this or I wouldn't have done that if I was using real money - which you can say if you are playing on paper. If you make 20% using dollar bets there's no reason you can't make it using bigger bets (nerve and personality not withstanding).

Anyway, sorry to be so disagreeable Guitar Jim. I wait to be enlightened as to your thought processes. What sort of guitar do you play? I've got a Strat.

KV

Agreed KV. Feel the same myself.
Why shoot someone's ideas down without knowing all the details?
As to making noise? I play the clarinet and the sax, looks like we have the making of a band here?