Shaun i totaly agree with these rules and have done much the same myself when starting off researching a new system but my point was that at some time or other one must test it day after day for a decent length of time to make sure that the results can stand up.

Wesmp1 why not as someone else suggested start with a small bank and add to your fun whilst you test this system on current races,you mightn win but the thrill of the chase would be worth $50 to $100 in my book.

All,

Thanks for all the advice. I have started a bank of 50 and will see how it goes. The bets will be 2% ( ie $1 until it hits $100 ).

I had 1 bet today and it paid $4.60/$1.60. So my bank has already increased slightly ( to $53.60).

I will continue testing it in the mean time on some more data, using months I haven't tested yet.

For those interested I have added another 150 or so bets from previous data and the figures are now :

Avg bets per week : 13
WIN strike rate : 41%
Avg WIN POT % : 28%
Place Strike Rate :77%
Avg Place POT % :19%

The places POT has dropped as has the WIN strike rate put the WIN POT has increased. Hopefully I will be able to make my test betting account ($50) work as good as this although I know it needs lots more testing.

Oh and just a note this isn't based on favs/or near favs but it does pick a lot of them thus the high percentage for the win strike rate. But I have had a win of $18.50 and $11.60 during testing as well as numerous wins between $7-$10 range. The highest win dividend bet on was $121.00 and it came 3rd.

Thanks again to everyone ... and if you have more advice let me know.
I am always willing and keen to learn something new.

Thanks

Dale wrote, "i dont need or want saving and i am sure i'm not alone."

That's exactly what all addicted , losing gamblers believe (not saying "you're" addicted or losing.....because I don't know you).


Dale wrote,
"You have a very good understanding of maths but unless you understand the important requiremnts each individual system asks of its selections there is absolutely no way you can say things like .......



with no understanding of horses and how individual system rules can impact on the type of animal you end up betting on."


Irrespective of any system selection rules whatsoever, the averages and percentages (regarding all aspects of the selection and betting processes) play their hand *ALWAYS*...... professional gamblers understand this thoroughly: People who make the type of statement you made in the above quote have tremendous difficulty with both understanding this and accepting this.

Dale wrote, "I also have my doubts about these %'s standing up long term but their chance of doing so is totaly dependent on THE SYSTEM RULES and not maths."


That statement is a total fallacy.......... it's something that probably 99% or more of hobby punters firmly believe and it's why they continually lose long term. It's why people swap systems, check systems, alter systems, make up systems and buy systems: They are continually looking to beat the odds...... rather than *understand* the odds. System rules just pick winners..... some pick 10% at high average dividends while others can pick 60% at low average dividends. These days making profit is not about picking winners...... doing that is not rocket science..... *ANY* efficient, professional and thoroughly researched selection method can do that: BUT, doing that WON"T deliver *PERMANENT PROFIT* if you don't understand the averages and percentages involved in the mechanics of gambling, in both the selection and betting processes.

"I repeat Jim,why do you post in this part of the forum?
[/QUOTE] "

So that one, even just one person here, will look at his gambling history and stop being a mug punter by trying to beat the odds and then proceed MAKE CHANGES. Then in a few years that person may, just may, be actually making a responsible living through punting instead of going to the grave a mug punter.

Some of this and a lot of your mathmatical logic is, I'm sure, sound in the majority of cases involving rating horses to pick winners. I wonder though how you feel about the maths involved in a system like Punter57's where he is basically betting on his evaluation of a trainer's motives for running his horse. Although this method is not entirely original it probably doesn't fit the mathmatical models you are basing your arguments on. This is the sort of thing where I feel your INSISTENCE on certain strike rates always being accompanied by certain POTs can fall over.

KV

All,

Just an update and thank you to all who said I should start a bank for testing.

So far 2 bets for 2 winners.

The first paying $4.60 and the second paying $5.30.

I hope it continues to go this way...

Thanks again

Guitar Jim, Kenny Victor pretty much summed up my response,as he points out you dont give any credit for creative system design.

I'll take a stab in the dark here Jim,i bet you were a systems buff but lost big time and rather than blame the designer you turned your blame towards systems as a whole and latched on to this swiss cheese of an excuse called percentages.


Wesmip1 keep up the good work,i hope your system rules are creative and original enough for it to continue to win.

"Creative" in the instance you mention, refers to "evaluation of a trainer's motives for running a horse". C'mon Dale ol' boy; creative? That's barely worthy commenting about; that's one of the worst, most inefficient, oldest methods for selecting a horse but let me say at least this...... I have publications dating back to the late 1800s that advise this same method. NOTHING is new, it's ALL been done before Dale... again and again and again and again and again and again. People who don't understand this continually look for new variations of choosing a horse.

In the late 1800s professionals were making a living from betting on horses and in the year 2005 the same applies. What the professional punters were doing in 1890 is the same as what professional punters are doing now.......... they used a sound selection process (there's no secret with horse selection... there's many sound methods) combined with a sound betting process (there's no secret with how to bet.... there's many sound methods); *BUT* and I repeat *BUT* the professionals have a thorough understanding of the mathematical process involved and both select and bet accordingly and *THIS* is why they can reap several % POT on a permanent basis; in other words make a living. They DON'T make a living because they select winners, anyone who knows how can do that.... they win because they understand how the figures work and bet accordingly. They were doing that in 1890, and they're doing that now!
The truth of the matter, and all mug punters seem incapable of grasping this, is that picking winners is not the door to success. Knowing what your *long term* win rate and return rate will be, in advance, is *THE* key: And you can only know that if you *FULLY UNDERSTAND THE FIGURES INVOLVED IN THE REQUIRED PROCESSES INVOLVED IN BOTH THE SELECTION PROCESS AND BETTING PROCESS". This is not a secret, and it never has been, and it's available to everyone; but most people don't have the application, inclination nor the academic agility to master what's required.
So these people continue to look for the *magic* selection method, totally oblivious to the fact that it's all been discovered, tried, and discarded and then re-discovered, tried, and discarded......... again and again and again and again and again for well over 150 years.
Trying to win by beating the odds is like trying to argue that 1+1=3.
One can only win, on a permanent basis, by UNDERSTANDING the odds: Understanding them in both the selection and betting processes.

Wesmip, please heed my advice in a previous post and you will have the best chance of success. You've already started betting, so pick a time to STOP. That can be at any point of time in the future. If at that point you are in front, even if it's just $1, then stop operating your method *for life*. You would have made your profit from it. That's the best chance you'll ever have with it, believe me. If you are behind at the stop time, then accept that loss, and also stop operating your method *for life*. You'll be guaranteed to eventually lose if you chase your losses or try to improve on your winnings. The averages MUST play their hand eventually. Bet very, very small; don't expect to win; keep it as a hobby only..... that's sage advice to people operating these old, tried systems

Guitar Jim, Always willing to listen to everyone and take stuff in. I haven't closed my thoughts to what you are saying.

The only problem for me is I need more information on what you are saying in the above quote. How do I ensure that I "fully understand the figures" ? and work out my long term win rate and return rate ? Is this just going through lots and lots of races and finally getting up to 2000 or 3000 races before I can be more sure of the results ? Or is there something else I need to do on top of this ?

This is the whole point why I raised the thread... What do I need to do to test my system ? How can I test my system to fit what you were saying above ? Forgive me as I am fairly new to all of this and any help anyone can provide is appreciated, but I need more detail in how to do it.

Also thanks to everyone who has replied so far, I have been testing more and more and started my live bank for a bit of a test. I have appreciated all the advice which has been given so far and will appreciate anymore advice people can continue to give me.

Thanks again.

Hi Wesmip1
You note a 43% SR
The theoretical run of outs for this based on 10,000 bets is
40% SR -- 14 outs
45% SR----12 outs
So if one strikes say 13 outs in a row , stop betting until a winner gets up before recommencing again.
This will help save ones bank if an anomily should strike say 30 outs in a row.
Useing a bank ratio of 1:40 win only. level stakes betting

OR
Bet 1wX3plc
If your Place SR remains at 75%+

I dont feel one needs to have 1000 bets . 3 lots of 150 consecitive bets should give a pretty fair indication if it has legs or not.

I beleive half the secret to longterm success in punting in general, is selecting the right races to target.
If one bets every race in front of them one will fall victim to the overwhelming stats of racing.

Heres one for you Guitar Jim,
The stats show that Favs in Maiden from barrier No.1 or any other barrier win approx 30% of all races year in year out , then why is it in maiden races 1100-1110m where the Fav is starting from barrier No.1 that its SR is only 15% based on the last 5.5 years, betting 7 days a week. All tracks , all track conditions, day or night.

Cheers

__________________
Cheers.

Guitar Jim thanks for the history lesson,i'll bring you a nice juicy apple tommorow.........................


I take offence to your statement that all systems have been discovered, tried, and discarded and then re-discovered, tried, and discarded......... again and again and again and again and again for well over 150 years.

That is akin to saying all possible cures for cancer have been exhausted so we might aswell give up and makes the assumption that people like myself dont have a creative bone in our bodies.

I think your arguement is seriously flawed and like a born again christian you go overboard with your newfound beliefs,stop ramming it down our throats,stop telling punters like Wesmip to give up betting for life once he is in front(how arrogant),start giving us punters some credit here,we all know about percentages and possible future outcomes but unlike you who thinks all one needs is a half decent betting approach and a super human understading of percentages to turn a profit we dont want to settle for a half decent betting approach,we want a selection method that can actualy turn a long term profit.

Bhagwan,nice post,you point out one of the many flaws in his logic,i'd love to sit here all day and do the same but i got a feeling he wont listen,he's born again lol.