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#11
12th December 2005, 10:07 AM
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Where to bet?
I also sit back quietly absorbing all these wonderful snippets of information and usually I don't offer a word of thanks. So let me say now "THANKYOU " to everyone who has offered up stuff for this forum. Personally I lack the fortitude to get into one of these crazy slanging matches where 'people' are argued and not the 'punting'.
On the subject of this thread I know this. For my style of betting ,which is place betting on favourites, the Qld TAB offers the ability to place the bet AFTER the jump and this for me represents a massive improvement in POT as the favourite is beaten so often before the ***king thing has left the stalls. As I've said before, I'm happy to bet on something showing $1.00 because I know there's a fair chance it will pay $1.30 or $1.50 or maybe more than the win figure by the time the race is over.
__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!" 
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#12
12th December 2005, 10:41 AM
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Quote:
Or perhaps I excluded the 17 $60+ results because I didn't want to risk distorting the conclusions through fluke premiums. I note the 6/11/2005 BATHURST R4 won by Royal Dane which paid $92.25 (-2%) for me versus $30.20 in NSW. As I've mentioned before if my numbers pick something I don't get put off by bolter prices. Anyway I look forward to your polemic on statistics, here in this sanctuary where too much controversy is never enough.
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#13
12th December 2005, 11:02 AM
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Quote:
Yeah Sportz, it's really got me beat too. What on earth could a column titled Aus/NSW mean in a topic titled AusTote versus TAB Limited? And the 1st column titled $ is even worse. What could the sequences 1 ...9 and 10 ... 50 (step 10) possibly indicate? I've tried Barriers, TAB#'s, Techform Ratings, Age, runs from spell, days since last start and Impact Values but none of them quite fit. It certainly can't be odds groups because you have to type: 4.00 - 4.99 and 20.00 - 29.99 instead of simply 4 and 20.
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#14
12th December 2005, 11:38 AM
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Quote:
Yeah, well you would do that if you wanted to make it easier to understand. And you would also make it clear what that $ value actually represents. The horse's official starting price or it's TAB price or what?
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#15
12th December 2005, 12:00 PM
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Quote:
I suspect such details aren't terribly important, because alternative groupings should give similar results. However for the purists: Column 1 groups (final) NSW divs in first whole $ clusters, then $10 clusters as samples diminish. Column 2 is sum(AUS Divs)/sum(NSW Divs) expressed as a +/- %. Note that I sum the divs before taking the ratio as I believe that minimises distortions. If I instead summed the ratios first and then added, weirdos could give problems. e.g. the highest ratio is an amazing 4.705 = $36.70/$7.80. How much would that distort a column with an otherwise ratio of ~1.20?
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#16
12th December 2005, 01:10 PM
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jfc,
I am interested also. I couldn't quite work out what the numbers meant next to the percentages, but I'm getting the drift that with commission taken out, you'd still be at least 10% better off. Now, if I can gain 10% better return on many of my losing systems, I'd be winning! There are literally hundreds of angle's I've ditched because of a slight loss. But what is the liquidity of the pools like? I've been waiting for them to build up to reasonable levels. The moral here is if one cannot win with a 10% increase in prices, one should not be in the game.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#17
12th December 2005, 01:14 PM
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Gday Chrome
I could not make head nor tail of the figures so I stayed out... (I still can't...its outside my area of expertise) But with your comments I can see an argument coming along the lines of turning flat stake losing in to staked winning... You would remember that long and IMHO tedious argument on another forum... on this very subject.. Some say you cant turn a loser into a winner, whilst others disagree...I happen to think that if you are close to break even you CAN make money with even the most elementary staking progression plan... Oh and if those figures DO mean that Austote is 10% better than NSW, count me in.. but I share your concerns about pool size, and what sort of damage one can do with a decent bet. Last edited by xptdriver : 12th December 2005 at 01:17 PM.
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#18
12th December 2005, 01:26 PM
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Quote:
Chrome, Precisely what I've been doing. I've dredged up some old false prophets/profits and reenlisted them back into AusTote boot camp. If they can't buck a 2% (1st 2 months) rake then there's no hope for them. In case anyone's wondering SmartGambler is listed as an affiliate. And I have no vested interest. The liquidity is irrelevant, because unlike Betfair your bets always go on. The pools are now surprisingly high as you can check from their results. http://www.austote.com/results.asp I note many here use them. But why aren't the others. I think my figures suggest that after rake you'd be at least 12% better off.
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#19
12th December 2005, 01:36 PM
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xptdriver,
No, I wasn't going to enter into the staking debate, as I am a level stakes man  But the small losses of many systems, mean that a profit can now be achieved, still using level stakes.
__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software. Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races! http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html *RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024 Video overview of RaceCensus here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg
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#20
12th December 2005, 01:52 PM
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I'm answering this much for myself as for others because some of the figures are counter-intuitive.
If NSW rake is 16% why does the AusTote premium show as ~19%? Because the expected ratio is calculated as 100/(100-16) = 100/84 = 1.190 Worst case you only get 95% of that = 1.131. So that leaves you ~13% better off. But if you bet at least 20 minutes before the worst rake is 3.5%. And that in theory leaves you 14.9% better off. In practice it looks as if shorties aren't all that far below that but roughies give you a nice spice bonus.
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