Hi Chinbok .

Thank you for that / Very much appreciated.

Cheers.
darky.

Nice piece of research Chinbok.
Well done.

And well done again Michealg.

For some reason the idea of backing the other 2 in the Radio TAB selections is not performing to the average 50% winner in 3 SR for some strange reason.
Maybe these races it is selecting , are more open than they first look on paper , because some big prices seem to be getting up.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Chinbok.

I had assumed you were looking at the top selection using the default settings and not referring to the Lay method. It would now seem that the method might not be all that good. I also assume you looked at all faves, not just limiting them to those under $4.00?

As your Unitab figures showed a slightly less of a LOT than the neurals I decided to look at the Unitab ratings applying the same Lay rules to it. I identified a selection if it was not in the top 33% of the ratings. For example, if there were 9 runners in a race and Unitab only rated the under $4 pre-post fave as their fourth selection, it then became a Lay selection. Unfortunately I have only the info going back to Thurs 26 Jan and not Wed 25 as I have with the neurals. Anyway, since Thursday to yesterday there have been 28 Unitab Lay selections for 3 winners totalling $9.60. For the same period, the neurals have had 33 selections for 4 winners totalling $14.00. Laying them on Betfair would have produced a healthy profit for both systems even allowing for the 33% premium which I think may not be too unrealistic. Maybe someone has figures which could confirm/deny this?

I am under the impression that Unitab are provided their ratings from AAP which also owns the neurals, so I expected most of the selections to be mutual, but this was not the case. So from today I'll also list the Unitab selections. You will see that neither method today have mutual selections.

Neurals
Stawell R5 no.2 - Kingster Blue ($2.50)

Unitab
Scone R3 no.2 - Chester County ($3.20)
Scone R4 no.1 - Montecito ($3.50)
Rocky R4 no.1 - Cee Jay Tee ($2.30)

It's all a bit weird. How can the last week of results be so out of whack with the longterm stats results? Chance and probability just aren't that ruthless, surely?

Very good point, Crash.

Chinbok, is it possible to check your data base and see what it throws up for the past week (Wed 25 to Tues 31/01)? As posted here, the last seven days has produced 42 selections for 5 winners totalling $16.70.

Thanks in anticipation.

Yesterday's neural selection was beaten, however two of the three Unitab selections won for a total win divvy of $4.10 - not a good start!

Six neural selections today:
Wyong R5 no.2 - Regansburg ($2.50)
Sandown R1 no.4 - Swish trish ($2.50)
Sandown R7 no.2 - Miss Theron ($3.50)
Eagle Farm R1 no.1 - Craiglea Miss ($3.50)
Morphetville R2 no.5 - Vara Remarco ($3.50)
Pinjarra R8 no.2 - Ball Lee ($3.50)

One Unitab selection:
Morphetville R7 no.4 - The Marquetear ($3.50)

Hi Michael,

I can check the last week to see what I came up with. I understand the neural rule. What others do you want?

No maidens?
Unitab SP < $4 ?
Incl 2yo ?

Just did a quick run using Unitab SP Rank = 1, No 2yo plus the 2 neural category rule and came up with 109 selections from 25th to 31st Jan. Obviously alot more than you. What other rules are you using?

I used your initial rules: No maidens, SP < $4 and came up with totally different selections. Must be the difference between Unitab SP and Pre Post.

Bets: 64
Wins: 21
SR: 32.8%
POT: 0.3%

The selections are in the attached file.

Attached Files

Book10.xls (54.0 KB, 511 views)

These figures are rot. Sorry if I led anyone astray. I filtered on Unitab Rating Rank instead of Unitab SP Rank. I should have realised something was wrong with a group of favourites with a 16.8% strike rate.

The correct figures should be:

Maiden unitab favourites:
Bets: 5376
Wins: 1836
SR: 34.2%
LOT: 9.7%

Maiden unitab favourites that qualify for Michael's Lay System:
Bets: 1854
Wins: 561
SR: 30.3
LOT: 11.4

Not important now as the prepost fave appears to be the one to lay, not the SP fave.

Cheers

Hi, Chinbok. Thanks for the figures.

I think you're right about the difference with the pre-post and Unitab markets. There doesn't seem to be any other logical explanation??? At least in gives some sort of hope to the system even though it would be expected both markets would even-out in the long run and provide consistent results using both markets. We'll see what happens.

Yesterday was a losing day. From the six selections, two won paying a total of $6.60. Hope this isn't a sign of things to come. The Unitab selection was unplaced.

Six selections today:
Canterbury R5 no.5 - Written Tycoon ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.2 - Great Provider ($3.50)
Ipswich R5 no6 - One For None ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.1 - Keep A Dream Alive ($3.00)
Wagga R5 no.3 - Madam Delia ($2.80)
Mt Barker R6 no.2 - Langtrees Lad ($3.00)
Mt Barker R7 no.1 - Spirited gem ($3.50)

Six selections for the Unitab system
Geelong R4 no.1 - Better Jetsetter ($3.50)
Geelong R8 no.2 - Great Provider ($3.50)
Ipswich R5 no.6 - One For None ($3.50)
Ipswich R7 no.1 -Keep A Dream Alive ($3.00)
Mt Barker R5 no.5 - Carnchawyn ($2.80)
Mt Barker R8 no.1 - Royalistic ($3.00)