No
I didn't say that. If I subscribed to the whole ratings thing (which I don't) I would still bet unders on a top rated horse. But I would only bet odds that I considered fair.

BJ!
Most of us who beleive in ratings versus systems, use some formulae to convert ratings to prices. What prices you get depends entirely on the formulae used.
A top rated horse, to me, still means a horse with the best chances in the race 'IN MY OPINION'.
It's up to us if we are prepared to except the offer of the bookmakers, and anybody silly enough to except ANY price, deserves what he gets.
Incidentally, I think most of the people using systems, also think the same way.

There hasn't been one person say that they will accept "any" price.

I will accept "any" price.

__________________
"Not winning on a horse that came first is one thing.....Losing on a horse that didn't come first is something else entirely!!!"

So what is a "fair" price then? Some random number, or a price that you think represents "value" against the horses true odds in your opinion?

This is the whole argument. So many people in here saying that value is a load of crap, yet nobody would be prepared to take "any" odds about the top selection.
Why is this so?
I suggest the answer lies with everybody here trying to get "value".

No! not some random number!
Common sense I would say. I personally settled for $2.50. Reason? Odds on favs just do not win often enough to produce a profit. But odds above the 2.50
line fit nicely into a 20 to 25% strikerate with an ave. return big enough to make some money.
If you call that looking for value, yes I cheerfully admit I am.

2.50 is no good for the strike rate you mention Marcus. You would have to do better than that. At best your treading water [25%SR], at worst your losing [20%SR].

'Fair' price or 'Value' is subjective and basically means a price that is profitable for your [own] SR. A personal value to be worked out from punter to punter and from bet to bet. Trying to put a definition on it for everyone has as much chance as trying to define 'big'.

Crash.
My average return/ winning bet is $5.30
But if I include odds on favs it will increase the strikerate but greatly reduces the ave return/ winning bet. That's how the $2.5 odds fit in.

Hypothetical situation:
A horse showing $1.10 on the tote with 1 minute to go. Somebody offer you odds of $2.40.
You are saying to me that you would not take it because it is less than $2.50.
I would suggest that the money bet suggests this horse has greater than an 80% chance of winning, yet you are not prepared to back it at $2.40.

My main point when I posted that not one person has suggested that they would take their top selection at whatever odds they can get. I get the feeling that they are all selective about accepting odds, and if that is the case, then they are searching for value. Simple as that.
Just an observation from the posts on this thread.


As far as your backing over $2.5 favourites, from my observations, they all win the same ratio in comparison with the odds offered (on average). Of course there are clear exceptions, but on average, you would be no better off IMHO....

Whether you get the impression from my post or not, I back every one of my selections at whatever odds I can get. I don't have any super ratings system, so I don't have the luxury of having any clue about the horses that I back... Just use a system, close my eyes, cross my fingers, and kick back and enjoy the ride while it lasts....

My ratings, are deliberately tilted towards horses that are NOT likely to be favs.
After all there is no need to rate a race to find the favorite, all one has to do is look at the sceen in the TAB.
I am trying to find a horse that has a good chance of winning, or run a place.
Many times of course this will include the fav. as the top selection, whether I like it or not.
If I bet on short odds it will ruin my return on the winning bets because of the overall strikerate being in the low 20 or less.
Also I mostly bet for place, if the return is more $2.0 place div. Try to make money by betting on place for less then that and you will need a really good SR.
Anyway you do as you do, and we do as we do. I still think looking for value on one's own rated price is a fruitless task.
Who knows what the true odds are?
Do you?
Good on ya! you have a licence to print money.
Good luck