Had a guy telling me tonight the only reason for these "powerpays" is that the tab need to return "excess" money to the punter. Where the "excess" money comes from i have no idea, perhaps uncollected winners? Just shook and nodded at him as i could hardly decipher what he was saying. Reading this thread just reminded me about it.

Is it a true promotion or something going deeper that is covered up as a promo? Or was this guy just really really drunk?

There are a number of google-able recent press releases which explain this.

Essentially Tabcorp must keep its overall annual rake below 16%.

They have been raking over 20% on new exotic pools which have proved popular. So they have to return that excess.

CP,

I recall you once promoting TABs over Betfair.

Furthermore according to your product disclosure:

"In addition, when you purchase the RaceCensus database you also receive four free systems which show a six year profit on turnover at level stakes using only TAB prices!".

So how can you now argue the futility of trying to exploit a 10% bonus over TABs?

And unless I've missed something both Best Tote and SuperPrice (advertised here) are still available on Power Play days. So the bookie counter-measure argument is dead wrong. Obviously you churn away from any outfit that that's party-pooping this welcome price war.


Aside from all that the theoretical angle for exploiting Power Pays is compelling.

The 5.95% rake in question in theory equates to a market of 106.3%. In practice truncation makes that ~108%.

So if you can shave over 8% off you can "guarantee" a profit.

With IAS SupaDiv you can expect to shave:

2.50% = Premium over SuperTAB
3.33% = Effective Bonus on Thursday Deposits (10% on triple-rollover)

Only 2.17% to go.

So when you find you've matched on Betfair at significantly better than the TABs you can back the complementary runners at IAS for a favourable book.

One stunning example from yesterday was Miss Andretti. You would have spurned this disconcerting drifter. But $3.20 and better was readily available at Betfair. Even with the full 5% commission that's $3.09.

The market difference between $3.09 and the SuperPrice $2.80 is 3.35%.

So mission more than accomplished.

Now surely no one playing this caper needs to be told about the harsh distinction between theory and reality. But with a little effort there are many ways of improving the favourable figures above. For example I suspect that effective Bonuses far better than 3.33% can be hustled.

Power Pays are a marketing tool to turn around declining TAB market share to Betfair and the NT reg. bookies like IAS etc. [especially now they are offering exotics] as more and more punters make use of the internet to place bets. These punters quickly find that better prices are available than what the TAB is offering.

Power Pays [selected days only] are having moderate success in increasing TAB pools but eventually, the TAB will have to bite the bullet and lower their takeout % on all meetings and days as their good old monopoly status fades into the distant past.

The only bet source the TAB have all to themselves now is the cash bets from TAB outlets [Power Pays not offered there ...yet] but that has been a dwindling money supply since the introduction of poker machines and the increasing punter drift to the PC as a betting tool. Reduced takeout % will eventually be right across the board I think, even in cash TAB outlets. Long overdue too!

Hi, Crash.

Apart from strong competition, maybe as computer betting increases with the TAB it could provide an even stronger argument to reduce the take-out. With on-line betting there are less overheads, such as no buying/leases of TAB agencies, associated costs with them, no involvement of phone operators, etc.

The NSW TAB could also consider abolishing the current method of rounding-down particularly with the Place divvy. If after the 15% (or whatever) the true divvy is $1.38 they will then halve this because they greedily work on a $0.50 divvy that then results in a divvy of $0.69. But as they declare divvies, not as $0.50 but as a dollar amount they now round-down the $0.69 to $0.60 and multiply it by 2. This then comes to $1.20 which is the declared dividend. So by this method a $1.30 becomes a $1.20 dividend.

When this method was introduced in the mid-seventies by the then-government which owned the TAB there was a justified outcry but the TAB/Government's attitude was the usual "stuff the punter".

I'd like to see a closing bet time for every race too. I'm sick to death of watching the jump prices of winners shorten AFTER the race.

Yesterday I had a win bet on r8 in Brisbane on a $9.70 jump price runner [Stab] that went down to $5.50 after the race was called. The fact the horse won was no compensation as when I can, I judge my bets close to start time as 'value' [bet] or 'no value' [no bet]. Getting caught out holding subjectively judged poor value bets win or lose, is poor punting.
As I rarely back favorites, 'top fluctuation' from bookies is [usually] a waste of time. Stab overall generally pays better odds on longer priced runners.

I'm not a Betfair punter, but I'm starting to seriously think about it.

seriously doubt you would regret the move crash

jfc,

Yes I have promoted TABS over Betfair, as I have also promoted Betfair over TABS - both have advantages, both have drawbacks, which is why I use both. Betfair have also changed a lot of things since my posting on the subject, namely ease of deposit and withdrawal. What used to take up to 7 days (via account), now happens in 24 hours.

Of course if we can get a better market percentage, then everyone is better off, but it was the use of the word "exploit."

I still fail to see how a temporary correction can be exploited when the bookies are not paying the top tote price.

I did explain best tote and gave two clear examples - the bookies paid worse that STAB.

What looks good in theory, is not what often happens in practice.

If you found an angle, then that's great - I don't personally see that all things being equal, it's worth chasing pennies on very slim advantages when the advantage is fleeting (timewise).

I possibly have misunderstood what you are doing, or maybe you haven't revealed the whole picture.

With regard to Miss Andretti I backed her at no risk whatsoever.
I had matched odds early on the lay side and backed her late in betting.

On the flipside, I backed Universal Queen, not knowing that this was possibly one of the biggest plunges around Australia to actually come off in a long time that wasn't foul play but the real deal. I backed her at long odds and layed her late in betting.

For me, any market movement is good, but I have been caught with my pants down on more than one occassion

__________________
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CP,

"What we've got here is failure to communicate."

(No prize for guessing why I haven't provided an apt working link for the memorable quote's origins).

"the bookies are not paying the top tote price."

They are, they are, they are! Or at least their sites claim to.

At least one of the advertisers on this site pays Best Tote for the SMABP Metros. Along with a handy 20% sign-up bonus.

Typically in Power Pay season that's usually a sub 105% Market.

And as I pointed out, the Median Tote + mystery Bonus outfit ended up paying 2.5% more than SuperTAB on the the first Power Pay weekend.

jfc,

I could be wrong, but I was informed that during PP, they weren't.
If they are then I stand corrected.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg