Here is what I call my G6 System.

This is not a selection system nor is it a staking plan.

This is an attempt to devise a method to get through long losing runs.

My idea is to see if an ideal number “divisor” can be found to reduce bank loses for any strike rate.

Everybody has their own way of making their selections and preferences for staking plans.

A problem in common to most punters if not all, is the inevitable long losing run.

A loss recovery plan is part of my idea not everybody’s cuppa, but, each to his own.

There has been lots of work in this area before and I’m sure mine won’t be the last.



Anyway, here’s how it goes.

I use groups of 6 runners to win X and recover loses.

6 losses terminate a group or a win when it happens.

Whatever is lost on a losing group of 6 is left behind.

This cut off is necessary.

Start new group.

The original plan was to find:

1. Ideal number of bets to put together to get through the long losing runs without stretching the bank too much. 6 seems to be the ideal number for this set of results.

2. To see if anything could get near the Level Stakes ideal and to make the same profit.

I ran the 2 ideas side by side on the same sheet.

Would like to pursue this for a while, any help with the science bit, ROI SR LSP etc would be really appreciated.

Does anyone know if there is a spreadsheet around that will do this automatically?

Had a stroke a few years ago and not able for that kind of calc anymore, think the old brain got crisped round the edges that time.

All help, comments and advice are welcome.

Here is the G 6 Plan in Excel, there are 945 rows.

Novice Punter

Attached Files

G 6 Plan.xls (114.0 KB, 1127 views)

Staking idea
If a winner is struck regardless of price , restart at the beginning.

Try & target runners paying $3.20+ otherwise its a no bet race if the selection is not there. Let it win without your money.

Don't chase the value , let it come to you.

1 1 2 2 3 3 = 12
av O/L $2 per race.
You may notice that this is also the median figure.

Have 9 banks of 12 units = 108
Allows for 54 bets.

Punting aint easy , epecially if one accepts short prices consistantly.

A method of selection that has its good days.

1st & 2nd TAB FAV PLAN
Target the 1st & 2nd TAB Favs at 0 jump time.
These win on average 45% of the time.

The selection of the 2 Favs is the one with the shortest PLACE Div at 0 jump time,
If a draw , No-bet. (This is rare)
Bet it for a Win.

One will find that stuff still changes after that time. Thats OK, its part of the process.

One will find that it works in real time, but not after the event is over.
So going over past results is a waste of time because every thing is then balanced out to reflect the actual , which ends up showing the Fav after the 90 sec loop of time for all the figures from around the country become formatted.

So I repeat, dont wast ones time looking at the actual results after the event, because most times that is not what was actually being shown at the time of selection at 0 jump time .

One will be surprised at some of the value divs struck using this method.

give it a dry run before betting any real money.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan

Thank you for responding to my post.

First off, have to copy your post into word and save it, have to read things a million times these days to get the plan.

Then I will try your staking idea along side level stakes and the 6 idea to see if more profit can be got.

Just at first reading the losses of the 6 plan would be reduced by a fair bit with a higher return also.

I have seen this type of staking in many of the posts on this site, apart from tests on a short run of bets I have never tried it over a long set of results.

I hear what you say about value, one of the rules in my selection plan is, and there are a few, odds on no bet.

Don’t have named selections, just race type and odds etc.

Evens or better is ok with me, its just a medium to, get on, relying on the group of 6 idea to control the out of control situation that can happen when using a recovery type staking plan.

I’m going to get it in the neck for saying that, but I have tried for a long to formulate a plan that was easy to use and suited my way of doing things, and the pocket.

It is a bit aggressive, loss recovery will always is considered so, but it’s a compromise on some of my other ideas.


Thank you for taking the time

Regards

Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Novice Punter,
Your Most Welcome.
With the mentioned staking plan, one can target $2.00 horses for the first 3 bets e.g. 1 1 2 , if one must bet them its the last 3 bets that needs the value so show a profit.

An alternatve to the staking idea is to repeat that bet if the odds are not high enough to show a profit.

Either way , there is not much damage done because it is capped at 12 units max , before restarting.

One would have killed it yesterday with that selection idea.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Novice,
Heres a staking plan you might like to check out against ones past selections
It might work well.


LADDER STAKING PLAN.
These are all geared for a run of 60 races to produce a $2.00+ profit .
One keeps betting up the ladder win ,loose or draw until $2.00 in front , then start from the beginning.
The idea is to start again as soon as $2+ profit of bank is acheived.
e.g. $330 bank , $2+ profit needed before restarting .
If one reaches bet No.60 one does not proceed any further , either start with a new bank or give up punting forever.

e.g. 111111 222222 333333 444444 555555 ect.stopping at
10 10 10 10 10 10 keep going along the ladder, regardless of result, until it is forced into profit

1x6 example.
e.g. 1L,1L,1L, 1Xw2.00, 1L,1L,2L, 2Xw2.50, 2L, 2Xw3.00, 2L,2L, 3Xw3.90
O/L 21.00
Ret 24.70
Prof +$3.70 = +18% POT

Level stakes at $2.00 a bet
O/L 26.00
Ret 22.80
Loss -3.20 = -14% LOT


$-- Lots of 6
1--6
2--6
3--6
4--6
5--6
6--6
7--6
8--6
9--6
10--6
Bank needed $330
Last bet No.60 needed odds to break even 33/1
or several winners totaling these odds at the end process.


Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan

Plenty of food for thought there.

Very informative and encouraging, appreciated.

I will try your first plan over the excel sheet first, will take a few days.

I think its going to be hard to come up with a staking plan to suit average odds over 40 bets of approximately 15/8, my selections are going to be short priced and that cant be avoided.

Its the simplest selection plan that im able to work “on the run”.

There are not too many selections each day and this helps too, of course this time of year on this side of our planet the weather takes its toll.

Will get back soon with result of test.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Hi Bhagwan

Quicker than I thought.

Here is the updated sheet, along the 112233 plan I have also put in an idea I was trying last year.

What is the easiest way to calculate ROI / SR / POT ETC, not things I know much about.


Kevin

Novice Punter

Attached Files

G 6 Plan 2.xls (154.5 KB, 1013 views)

Hi Novice,
This is the way I do it .

Net Profit calculation
(also known as P/L)
Write down the total Gross Returns (this means the total Ret including the bet amnt before net profit is calculated) e.g. $240

Write down the total Outlays e.g. $200

Take one away from the other e.g. $240-200= +$40 Net Profit & that will be ones P/L (profit /loss)

POT calculation.
Divide the above Net Profit figure into the total Outlay figure
e.g. +40/200 = 20% POT (profit on turnover)

If it was a Loss say -10/200 = -5% LOT (loss on turnover)

It makes it easy to compare statergys once everything is converted to percentages.

SR calculation
Divide the number of winners by the total number of bets
e.g. 50 wins / 167 bets = 30% SR (strike rate)

ROI calculation
(Gross Return on Investment) in this case it is the Gross Ret
e.g. $240 / 200 = 120% ROI (before net is caculated).
Take away 120% -100% = 20% POT (net profit)

Personally I dont use ROI calculation, I have shown it here because you requested it.

I use SR percentages & POT percentages only.

Average Dividend is caculated by dividing the No. of winners into the Gross $ Ret amount e.g. 50 wins / $240 = $4.80 av div.

Once you have worked out your SR, I will be able to give you an approximation of what the longest run of outs one should encounter at some stage & it will happen , no matter how good a plan is.
We need to know this, so we can create a stratergy in advance so when it happens , we wont be caught off guard.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Bhagwan

Thanks for that very detailed explanation.

I always thought the day would come when I would regret all the time spent fishing instead of going to school, at my age now it was a safe assumption but today is that day.

Awesome stuff there, a bit complicated for me but I can get someone to go through it with me.

Will get back soon.

Kevin

Novice Punter