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  #21  
Old 14th February 2007, 02:44 PM
crash crash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
All a bit weird.
Looked at 2 races [3 and 5 at Sandown] and lousy odds on offer. Everyone seems to be trying to lay maybe[?]

R3 Bowhunter $11.20 Stab / Betfair $8
r5 Prince Juene $5.90 Stab / Betfair $4

I watched Bowhunter go $9 then $2 then $8 [?]

Had a couple of $6 bets on each just to kick off. What the hell.


Well that was lucky. First blood to me on Betfair with Bowhunter home at $8 [paid $8.30w Stab]. I'm happy with $8w but should have had $50 on it !
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  #22  
Old 14th February 2007, 02:45 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Most of the action is in the last few minutes just like the other markets. Generally up until then the Betfair prices are much worse than on the tote. A rule of thumb I use is that if you can get on at a price that looks pretty similar to the Tote prices early in the betting, your probably looking at a runner that is going to be a big drifter. Although this is just an observation. I've not tested it.
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  #23  
Old 14th February 2007, 02:49 PM
crash crash is offline
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Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb, but at least I took some Layer's money :-)
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  #24  
Old 14th February 2007, 02:54 PM
jfc jfc is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
All a bit weird.
Looked at 2 races [3 and 5 at Sandown] and lousy odds on offer. Everyone seems to be trying to lay maybe[?]

R3 Bowhunter $11.20 Stab / Betfair $8
r5 Prince Juene $5.90 Stab / Betfair $4

I watched Bowhunter go $9 then $2 then $8 [?]

Had a couple of $6 bets on each just to kick off. What the hell.


Crash,

I suggest you download the Betfair Advantage Tool.

It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs.

In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax.

Chances are for a longshot like that you would have been hit.

If not then you could always negotiate a bit down as a last resort.
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  #25  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:01 PM
crash crash is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jfc
Crash,


It claims that Bowhunter at jump was backable at $10.50 and paid over 20% better than all TABs.

In this instance you probably would have been better off offering to back it at (say) $11.50. Rather than paying the virgin tax.
.


Will get the Advantage download.

I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !
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  #26  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:08 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !

Well, one man's trash is another man's treasure I guess. Nice job.
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  #27  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:15 PM
mad mad is offline
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Howdy Crash,
Good to hear you're a convert. Soon enough you'll forget all about the TAB's and wonder where this service has been all your life, LOL.

As for your questions, personally i prefer to use the bookies fixed price markets as a comparison, as the tote can often be difficult to judge with all the jumping around. Plus you know that should the tote be displaying a large overlay to the bookies market, plenty o' moola will be acomin'. Similarly, Bowhunter (Col Tidy + IAS) opened at 8's and 7's respectively, drifted to 9's before shortening to close at 8's. Under this arrangment you might set a price of 10's on betfair and should things move against you, take the 9's with the bookie etc etc. Certainly should you see $10.50, you would be inclined to have a nibble. Just my preference, but seems to work. (EDIT: I should add that the above would apply to the more fancied runners).

Oh and don't forget to include a 5% premium in your betfair prices to compensate for the commission.
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Last edited by mad : 14th February 2007 at 03:20 PM.
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  #28  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:22 PM
AngryPixie AngryPixie is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
Thanks for that tip. I was like a lost little lamb
Wait till you start trading the FTSE Intra's in the Financial's.
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  #29  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:30 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
I don't think these Layers can Handicap from a decent form guide. Bowhunter at $10.50? They are insane.
I jumped on at an early $8 because I thought it would go down to about $4 !


crash,

You'll notice some very strange prices on Betfair.
In some instances you can make a killing, others you'll wonder why bother with Betfair at all.
It's about picking and choosing I guess.
Also you have to allow that you are going from a big percentage takeout to a slim one. Therefore prices will generally be over what you expect.
Within this though are movements that can definitely be taken advantage of (including early markets).
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  #30  
Old 14th February 2007, 03:49 PM
crash crash is offline
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Thanks for all the info. from everyone. Hopefully I can fill a few jam jars [little ones to start with].
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