Crazy not to. There's some good stuff here on occasion. A true professional would always be on the lookout for new angles, not lolling off in some complacent daze.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

I mostly bet proportionally around a set flat stake. The amount I bet depends on the overlay value of the bet. The lower the value, the lower the bet and vis-a-vis. This type of proportional betting particular suits punters who handicap their races [do the form].

I work out the overlay value by using my own priceline for what I believe are the winning chances in a race. Pricing is dependent on the number of winning chances and the field size of the race. I'll generally ignore races with more than 14 runners or races with too many winning chances [more than 4], except for the odd big Group or Cup race.

A punter needn't price every horse in a race, just the possible winning chances and after a bit of practice it's easy enough to to do in your head. It's more art than science.

Three good winning chances in race of 12 starters? OK, to work out an initial basic SP price, that's a 25% winning chance for each horse with a 25% chance for the rest of the field and the unexpected.
So my winning contenders have an initial 1 chance in 4 each or an SP of $5 each. Fine tuning kicks in now and from my [further] handicapping efforts I'll work out a final SP price for each winning chance. Which horse I back will depend on the prices offered [value], not just backing which of the three I think will win, because we are so often wrong [I'm chasing value, not what I think are 'winners'].

There is no rocket science involved here [just practice], because regardless of method, everyone ends up with an educated guess regarding a fair SP.
Among my winning chances I will often back a runner because of a large overlay above the SP price I've set for it, even though I think one of my other winning chances has a slightly better chance of winning.

EG: I backed Jokers Wild who came 3rd in the Cadbury Guineas because I picked it up at 27/1 early on Betfair and only just missed on a very large collect. It lost but it was still a very good bet because it almost pinched the race. Luckily I also backed JW for the place, which payed more than the winner Miss Finland [great win!] anyway.

Yesterday [Mond. 12th] I picked up Pinsemont (NZ) at the Valley, a good back-marker in an outside alley at 14/1. A very good chance against Fearless Waters, who at 4/1 was poorish value. Pinsemont ran over the top of them and I'd put twice as much on it as I would have on Fearless Waters [ 2nd]. Pinsemont was way over it's true odds as Back-markers in outside alleys often are, BECAUSE they are in outside alleys and most punters wouldn't know a back-marker from a on-pacer.

I used the same betting approach on Jillimarg in R4 at Morphetville. At 12/1 it was way overs, but it was just beaten by the favorite Maloose [3/1]. Win some, lose some.

Cheers.

Well said, crash.

__________________
All generalizations are dangerous.

Dear Crash & YoungBuck,

As you know I am very serious about mastering this art and remain willing to learn whenever I find a worthy contribution. Too many times I hear garbage uttered from people who claim to be professional and it only serves to cloud the field, but definately not so in your response Crash, You obviously know what you're talking about..

I'd love to learn more from you if you have the inclination to part with your hard won secrets you can contact me at OzPunter01@gmail.com for some private conversation..

Otherwise I'll take on board what you've said and put it in the "to be studied and examined " basket...

Thanks Again, Crash

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Dear AngryPixie,

Can you tell me who Dick Mitchell was and where I can buy one of his books?

Regards
OzPunter

I have always felt that PICWIZ the manuscript( chock full of winning stats and data) from Malcolm Knowles gave the budding professional punter the best leg up to achieving that goal.

Cheers.
darky.

Thanks DarkyDog, It's on my list of things to buy..

Kind Regards
OzPunter

Oz

The late Dick Mitchell was a US based punter, author, maths whizz whose no crap approach to writing really appeals to me. I've the two books below which are now out of print I think, but you can find second hand copies on eBay or Amazon.

Winning Thoroughbred Strategies

Commonsense Handicapping : the Logical, Left-Brained Approach to Winning at

A fair bit of each book deals with US racing as you'd expect, but alot of the other stuff I've found very thought provoking.

A short bio on Dick here

http://www.cynthiapublishing.com/dickmitchell.html

PS: Look. You can say crap and not get ****'d. crap, Crap, CRAP

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

whats a proffessional punter ?? is this a punter who's soul earnings are on the punt ?? or is this a punter whos successful, bets in big dollars, goes around saying he is ??

i suppose you cant be an unsuccessful punter unless you have an enormous bank but the term gets thrown around all the time..

i like to use the term "Full time Punter" ,,i know a couple who seem to be pretty good at it ,,or atleast say they are...

i've been lucky enough to actually have a good profit going on almost 4 years now... does this mean i'm a pro punter ?? would look nice on a business card but does that mean i have to give up my day job ??

Thanks AngryPixie, i'll look them up at the library, you never know where they turn up..

Thanks Again,

Kind Regards
OzPunter