Ok let's see what happens today. Many of these lay selections will be long in the market so please don't do anything that makes you feel uncomfortable or embarrassed.

These are single factor selections and their place in the market has not been considered. We're working up the data to see what filters drop out

BATH04-06 Royal Attitude
BATH04-07 Owatonna
BATH05-02 Dame Seven
BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge
BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet
CHEL04-01 Londo
CHEL06-07 Croquet
CHEL08-02 Marzotto
CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack
GCST04-05 Glowing Rose
GCST07-09 Sky Mine
GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge
GCST08-11 Sweetmandy
MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq
MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil
MOE_06-08 Elliptical
MOE_07-01 Cobalta
MOE_08-07 Indicates
M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini
M_V_04-04 Vengo
M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar
RAND01-06 Command Ruler
RAND04-08 Cagey Savings
RAND05-08 Big Head
RAND07-03 Sussman

Ascot to follow.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Both our price divisions are in profit after yesterdays efforts. Let's go again on Saturday to see how far we can push this.

I won't "grey out" any selections from now as I've summarised the different price divisions below. As usual, prices supplied by the B.A.T.

ASCT07-16 Webb Ellis 9.80 ... LOST +1.00
BATH04-06 Royal Attitude 5.50 ... LOST +1.00
BATH04-07 Owatonna 6.40 ... LOST +1.00
BATH05-02 Dame Seven 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
BATH05-06 Pickett's Charge 13.00 ... LOST +1.00
BATH06-05 Effdeecabernet 7.00 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL04-01 Londo 4.30 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL06-07 Croquet 6.80 ... WON -5.80
CHEL08-02 Marzotto 14.50 ... LOST +1.00
CHEL08-16 Woodland Jack 19.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST04-05 Glowing Rose 12.50 ... LOST +1.00
GCST07-09 Sky Mine 11.50 ... WON -10.50
GCST07-11 Inside Knowledge 17.00 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-11 Sweetmandy 8.40 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_04-03 Pride N Talaq 7.60 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_06-07 Don't Be A Devil 46.00 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_06-08 Elliptical 16.50 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_07-01 Cobalta 9.20 ... LOST +1.00
MOE_08-07 Indicates 34.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_02-08 Joontoo Gemini 25.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_04-04 Vengo 14.00 ... LOST +1.00
M_V_07-03 Miss La Tar 19.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND01-06 Command Ruler 8.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND04-08 Cagey Savings 70.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND05-08 Big Head 44.00 ... LOST +1.00
RAND07-03 Sussman 7.20 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - April 25th

All
===
Number of Selections: 56.00
Observed Successes: 51.00
Observed Strike Rate: 91.07%
Expected Successes: 50.47
Expected Strike Rate: 90.12%
Advantage: 1.05%
Success due to luck: 80.31%
Units Profit: +0.30
ROI: +0.05%

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 27.00
Observed Successes: 24.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.89%
Expected Successes: 23.03
Expected Strike Rate: 85.30%
Advantage: 4.20%
Success due to luck: 55.32%
Units Profit: +9.80
ROI: +36.29%

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Quite a few races with multiple selections today. Could be some good Dutch Lay opportunities. Normal warnings about price apply. Good luck.

CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa
CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty
CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay
CAUL08-08 Pinezero
E_FM02-05 Stirling
E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow
E_FM04-07 Vietnam
E_FM05-04 Mesmerising
E_FM05-07 Point Made
E_FM07-06 Primus
E_FM08-01 Omnitrader
E_FM08-03 High Academy
E_FM08-08 Picablu
E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze
GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso
GCST02-10 Monagetti
GCST05-04 Golden Whistler
GCST05-06 Nepro
GCST05-10 In Order
GCST06-07 Muscle Up
GCST08-04 Aquaracer
GCST08-05 Bushie
GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing
MORP03-09 Night Gazer
MORP04-09 Lessie
RHIL03-06 Rubinda
RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad
RHIL07-09 Newport
RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay

ASCT and TWBA to follow

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Angry Pixie, you have shown Caulfield R8 no.8 as Pinzero but it is no.2.

As a matter of interest, my Lay method has selected Caulfield R8 no.8 - Mistake Creek.

Thanks Michael you're right

CAUL08-08 Pinezero

should be

CAUL08-02 Pinezero

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Tough day on the lay! Toowoomba meeting being abandoned made it interesting but the 11.00 and less division ended on profit. We've come back to the pack a little though.

Watch the prices you're accepting here people. The daily median price has been pushed from 11.25 to 12.50! Remember it's more likely that the success so far of the 11.00 and less division has been due to luck. Little money only ok.

ASCT04-03 Cat In A Hat 8.20 LOST +1.00
ASCT07-07 Zambane 25.00 ... LOST +1.00
ASCT08-05 Dee Picked 5.60 ... LOST +1.00
ASCT08-10 Lizardis 7.80 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL03-01 Speedy Rossa 8.4 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL05-02 Life's A Bounty 15 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL06-03 Rockford Bay 20 ... LOST +1.00
CAUL08-02 Pinezero 11 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM02-05 Stirling 14.5 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM02-10 Moonlight Shadow 8.6 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM04-07 Vietnam 9.8 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM05-04 Mesmerising 10 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM05-07 Point Made 26 ... WON -25.00
E_FM07-06 Primus 10.5 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-01 Omnitrader 7 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-03 High Academy 38 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-08 Picablu 9.6 ... LOST +1.00
E_FM08-12 Noble Gaze 14 ... WON -13.00
GCST02-04 Casa Cardoso 17 ... LOST +1.00
GCST02-10 Monagetti 13 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-04 Golden Whistler 15 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-06 Nepro 19.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST05-10 In Order 12.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST06-07 Muscle Up 10.5 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-04 Aquaracer 6.2 ... WON -5.20
GCST08-05 Bushie 7.2 ... LOST +1.00
GCST08-09 Daintree Crossing 12.5 ... LOST +1.00
MORP03-09 Night Gazer 24 ... LOST +1.00
MORP04-09 Lessie 29 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-06 Rubinda 15 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL03-07 Oakland Lad 7.6 ... WON -6.60
RHIL07-09 Newport 30 ... LOST +1.00
RHIL08-02 Biscayne Bay 15 ... LOST +1.00

===
RESULTS: April 21st - April 28th

All
===
Number of Selections: 89.00
Observed Successes: 80.00
Observed Strike Rate: 89.88%
Expected Successes: 80.62
Expected Strike Rate: 90.59%
Advantage: -0.77%
Success due to luck: 82.65%
Units Profit: -20.50
ROI: -23.03%

11.00 or less
===
Number of Selections: 42.00
Observed Successes: 37.00
Observed Strike Rate: 88.09%
Expected Successes: 36.21
Expected Strike Rate: 86.20%
Advantage: 2.19%
Success due to luck: 70.50%
Units Profit: +11.00
ROI: +26.19%


P.S. Wonder if we've turned up a longshot win method with the selections starting at more than 11.00.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

A bit quieter today. Good luck.

BRAT05-05 Decamp
BRAT07-02 Saliente
BRAT07-11 Golden Engagement
GAWL06-15 Just A Giggle
GAWL08-13 Warwick's Brother
GCST02-01 Vitesse Dane
GCST06-03 King Rex
GCST07-12 Gaze
IPSW06-05 Darry
IPSW07-05 Snow Destiny
IPSW08-15 Lightning Brown
K_GR06-06 Gunna Happen
K_GR07-01 Geiger Spirit
K_GR07-02 Double Dip
K_GR08-02 Jet Hawk
M_V_06-04 Ghost Party
M_V_08-07 Carat Cake
RHIL03-03 Scissons
RHIL05-06 Lady Gulch
RHIL07-05 Rena's Lady
RHIL08-12 Junebug

BLMT an TWBA to follow

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Moonee Valley

R1-Hubcat
R2-Industrious
R3-Cot Case
R4-Purple Chocolate
R5-New Kid In Town
R6-Formal Attire
R7-Flash Coupe
R8-Rulan Ruby

Gold Coast
R1-Decerto
R2-Vitesse Dane & Vietnam
R3-Woody N Buzz
R4-N/A
R5-N/A
R6-Hard To Catch
R7-Desert War
R8-Coolroom Candidate


i have tried to choose horses that are fave or around the mark, so obviously some will win, but hopefully the losers will outweigh the winners.