Race 3 Was rated as follows:

Analysed: Yunus, Pious Pearl, Trinity Heights

Anticipated Outcome:
Pious Pearl to win by a nose to Yunus beating Trinity Heights by around 2.5 lengths. Horse to lay is Trinity Heights.

Race Outcome:
Pious Pearl missed the jump which is a bad sign in a 1100m race.
Finishing Order was Yunus 2nd , Trinity Heights 4th, Pious Pearl 6th.

As I said earlier with laying you only need to rate a few horses and get them right but sometimes you also get lucky and an unrated horse wins.

You could lay Yunus at $3.90
You could lay Trinity Hieghts at $30.00
Good Luck.

Race 4 :

Another race where the top rated had a very poor jump from the gates.

Analysed:Main Vein,Miss Devito, Jimeon

Anticipated Outcome:
Main Vein Scratched. Miss Devito to beat Jimeon by at least 1 length. Lay Jimeon.

Race Outcome:
Miss Debvito jumped bad and Jimeon tried to lead all the way.
Jimeon 2nd, Miss Devito far behind.

Another race where an unrated horse helped us out.

You could lay Jimeon at $8.50

Good Luck.

Race 5:

Analysed : Princess Of Monaco, Red Light Bandit, Let There Be Rock

Anticipated outcome:
Princess of Monaco is rated 3 lengths clear of Let there be rock and a further 2 lengths to Red Light Bandit.

Race Result : Princess Of Monaco 2nd, Let There Be Rock 3rd, Red Light Bandit long way back,

You could lay Let There Be Rock at $5.30
You could lay Red Light Bandit at $30.00

Good Luck

For Race 6 we had Roman Ace as a good lay and low and behild he comes out and wins.

You could have layed Roman Ace at $25.00

It shows how with a bit of luck the longer shots can get up. The top 2 horses both were out of contention coming into the final turn.

Good Luck.

Trying to get "an angle" on laying on Betfair (which I have been doing with mixed success) I came across this old thread --- and thought it was worth reviving.

AngryPixie and Michaelg said they have had fair success in the $6.00 to $9.90 band. having a quick look at yesterday's races at four of the centres I came up with in that band:

Sunny Coast -- !7 /17 successful lays
Canberra -- 16/17 ditto
Grafton -- 18/21 ditto
Geelong -- 20/22 ditto

Didn't bother with the other four courses (got tired!); but that is a grand total of 71/77 successful lays --- 92.2%.

Even if all the picks were at $9.90 (I don't think any of them were actually) the loss at $9.90 would have been (laying each for $20.00) $1068.00, whereas the other 71 successful lays would have brought in $1420 (less commission). Something like 24% POT!

For convenience sake I took the figures from the Qld TAB site. The figures on the jump at Betair could, probably would, vary a little from these.

Now applying this thinking to today's two meetings, so far (5.20 p.m.) the results would have been 20/22 (Jeuneyman just won at $6.10).

Seems to be something worth thinking about. Comments!?

Did you just lay everything in that price range, or did you try to rate them as Wesmip did?
My experience with that price range is that you can have a really good run for quite a while, but it always turns eventually and you only need 4 or 5 winners in close succession to bust your bank.

unfortunately you will find the betfair figures often vary a great deal from the closing unitab price, usually higher

its more than common for me to lay a nag paying $7.0 on uni at $10+on betfair simply because i cant get matched otherwise & i have a fair amount of faith in my selection process

No, I did not try to rate them, Salty. I appreciate your observation,

What you say, Stugots is probably true; but remember I only used the UniTab prices for convenience. I guess you simply would not lay the horses that did not come into the range. Remember, too, that the bottom end of the range would likewise "expand" into the band for the same reason. How that would affect the results I do not know. But its a good point that would have to be looked at.

Merriguy, I looked at BAT for today's racing at both venues - it would be expected that this be somehat more accurate than Unitab prices because it shows the final Bet price on Betfair.

There were 26 selections for 24 smiles in the $6.00 to $9.90 range as shown on the BAT site. Below are the results.

The total liability on the two accidents was 11.40 units.

24 smiles X 0.95 (Betfair's takeout) = 22.80 units profit.

By my reckoning that is a total profit of 11.40 units, or exactly a 50% profit. However the actual profit would be slightly less because I've used the Buy price and not the Lay price. Nevertheless, still a very good profit.

Unfortunately nothing is that easy or simple.

Are we using TAB price, Bookie Prices or Betfair prices to gauge the 6-9.90 band? Prices @ close to starting time, 5 minutes out, 10 minutes out? What if we lay one and it firms to less than 6 or drifts to longer than 9.90? What if we don't lay one, and just before they jump it drifts into the lay band, or firms into the lay band?

Good luck whatever you decide.