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After messing around with value for years I continue to find myself confronted with the above scenario.

My top/or second rated horse is frequently the favourite.

Now according to the value pundits unless I get the "value" odds I will go broke.

Finding 4/1 favourites or rating no-hopers on top of the pile is almost impossible,so I ask the "value" men,,,What is the answer to this conundrum???

Do I forlornly sit in front of my monitor and watch my top pick bolt in at 3/1 or do I plonk my hard earned on at below value odds ??? (and go broke) ??

With regard to ratings I have long felt that if your top rated horse is not the favourite you are doing something wrong.However I do think that a horses average rating over a period of some eighteen months or so is about the best indication of "class" in any given race.

I'm not knocking the "value" men.Just curious how they overcome the fact that horses rated to win simply dont start at odds calculated on an 80% market.

The only way you can understand and get value is if you give prices to your rated horses.

You might rate a horse 80% chance of winning which is odds of roughly (100/80) = $1.25

If you can find odds higher than $1.25 you are getting value. This means that even a horse paying $1.30 might be good value.

Without working out your own rated prices there is no chance of knowing what is and what is not value. For instance your top rated selection might have a 25% chance. This works out to be $4.00. You might only be able to get $3.80 so this horse has no value.

Hope that clears it up.

Wes. that part is very clear, but where I get lost is this, 2 experts, one rates a horse 2-1, the other rates the horse 4-1,....... 3-1 is available , is it good or bad value??

Value is all very subjective and very much in the eye of the beholder. You are looking for certainties where none do exist.
Sorry if this is a somewhat deflating view. Only time will tell if your ratings are as good as you hope they are. You just have to test them.

As Top Rank said ... The person with the correct version of ratings will make the right choice.

Thats where the skill comes in ...

OK got that, BUT take 2 EXPERTS whose ratings are on a par, one rates a horse @2-1, the other rates the horse @4-1, both experts over time are proven to be of equal substance, 3-1 is available, is THIS GOOD VALUE OR BAD VALUE?

If their ratings were 'on a par' party wouldn't their prices be the same

You might think so but NO, not on an individual race, they differ incredibly, last week at belmont one "************" had a horse rated at 5-2, the other at 7-1, it won paying 10-1 (TOP FLUC), an unusual occurrance; but still it happens, it doesn't only happen between 2 experts, I've seen as many as 4 completely disagree with the top rater, even though over time all 4 are on a par, so which one is "VALUE" no-one seems to be able to come close to answering the question?

In that case (imho) 3-1 is good value to the one that rates a horse @2-1

Which is value??? They both are. One "e x p e r t" backs the selection and the other lays it

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash