But only one achieves the value LOL That's racing

Well, Angry yes that's a funny answer, but it still dosen't answer my question, it's similar to another concept that is plugged over and over again, i.e YOU HAVE TO GET VALUE, ok got it, BUT..... "SHORTENERS ARE THE WAY TO GO", ...... HUH!? isn't that a contradiction in terms???

Angry's response works for me

The 1st statement is demonstrably TRUE.
The 2nd is an opinion.
Do not link the two.

VALUE is easy to understand when you look at it in terms you understand.
When you go shopping and you usually buy milk for $1.39, and one morning you see it at $1.05, you realize it is a bargain...Good Value.
Same as when those tipsters look at the market.
One will see VALUE, the other won't.
To you, because those assessed prices weren't formed by you, you won't see Value in either Experts decisions.
What you will be doing is trusting that particular Experts opinion.
Don't forget, each ************ is following a different path to get to the final result.
If one makes the correct assumptions than the other, then for that particular race, one ************ will be more right.
But VALUE is a long term thing, and you need to consider each of those experts over a long period of time.
Then you will know whether to take the 3-1 or not.

p.s. No swear words were intended here.
In fact I'm quite sober so I don't understand how i could have swore.
BIG BROTHER is obviously watching and needs his contact lenses replaced.

Quote Wesmip

"If their ratings were 'on a par' party wouldn't their prices be the same "


Wes once you have arrived at a rating figure surely the prices depend on the %figure you choose to form your market with.??

The late great DS suggested 80% which I think (these days,post value revolution) are pie in the sky.

In fact,as was mentioned, the whole deal comes back to subjectivity,which basically means that "value" could be any old figure.

Moeee nice to see you back around this part of the forum.

I understand all that has been written here but for heaven's sake, doesn't a 3/1 winner that "should have been 2/1" give the punter the same return as a 3/1 winner that "should have been 10/1"?. I don't care what the "experts" have rated a horse at. If I think it can win I will back it and ratings can go and whistle. When you pick up the paper and check the tipster's polling panel you will hardly ever find agreement across the board so who's right and who's wrong? In most cases not many of them.

Can I reframe the question and ask ,"what is realistic value" and "how do you calculate it"???

Not the arithmetic which is simple enough,,,Hmmm what I'm asking is how close to bookies odds can we go and still claim to be getting "value"

eg,,If the bookies are framing a 116% market,is it realistic to calculate our own at 114% and hang around the ring and wait for someone to offer the extra 10c or so ??? Or of course the online bookies offering fixed odds.

Is "value" saying the hell with calculations and accepting the top fluc as "value"or, getting the best of two totes ????

What is frustrating me is that I continually read posts where contributers make statements along the lines of."If you dont get "value" you will go broke"!

Unfortunately those pundits invariably neglect to define "value" as such.The fact is we can only work within a framework of the odds "on offer".No matter how we calculate our own markets the reality is that we dont control them.

I guess this leads us to betfair ?????

What I have found of interest, is to set the market at 118% which is the TAB take, then bet the double overlays on ones top 2 selections only.


I looked at this with many tipsters top 2 selections & nearly all of them made a loss at level stakes.
Their average top 2 SR was 36%
Yours maybe higher.

But, if one only took their double overlays of their top 2
Nearly all showed a profit.
To work out the double overlay, one has to convert it to fractional odss first.
e.g. $3.00 = 2/1
Example
$3.00 rated runner . Double the price minus one.
$3.00 x 2 = $6.00 -1 = $5.00 is the double overlay price one needs.Not $6.00
2/1 + 2/1 = 4/1 = $5.00

Now, one way to bet this selection once one has found a double overlay, is to bet it at your assesd price to take out a set amount.
e.g. Takeout amount $100 bookies price $10, your price $4 , remember one needs the horse to be at the double overlay price $7.00+ before one considers it to be a double overlay qualifier, anything more is a bonus.
$100 / $4 assesed price = $25 O/L
If it wins at $10 , you get back $250 for a $225 profit.

Another way of doing this is have a Base bet amount , say $20 & if the $4.00 selection double overlay price needed is say $7 & $10 is on offer, this represents a double overlay ratio of 10 / 7 = 1.43:1
Now bet the base amount $20 x 1.43 = $29 O/L
If it wins at $10 one gets back $290 - $29 = 261 profit.

In other words , the greater the double overlay , the more money that is placed on it.
"Are ya feelin lucky punk! Well are ya? "

This is the method the late great, Don Scott used.
He made a fotune using this method.
Unfortunatly he came undone chasing the Trifectas, so let that be a lesson to us all.

It takes patiece to run with this idea but one way to address this, is to set ones double overlay price, with a book maker set at a min price accepted at best price fluctuation.

So, one surgestion would be to use both rating services that one is looking at because both will deliver similar results long term.
. Target their top 2 selections only.
. Bet the double overlays on their given prices.
. Use a bookie like IAS & bet close to jump time when all the prices have settled.
. Or try Betfair close to jump time.
. Consider placing a 1/5th of total outlay insurance cover bet on the other selection, regardless of price overlays.

This helps reduce the drain on ones bank & adds a lot more interest to ones punting.
It reducers ones runs of outs which normally kills off most punting ideas.
The idea works well if one has strong SR with their top 2 selections.
One only does this when we have a double overlay selection running in the race.

Example.
Say our O/L for the race is $20
We place 1/5th insurance bet of $4.00 on the other selection.
We place the remaining $16 on our overlay bet.
If our insurance bet gets up at say $3.50 we get back $14 of our original $20
A loss of -$6 instead of -$20
Long term the profit works out approx the same but with less exposure to risk to the bank.

Tip.
Try not to double up ones bet on duel selections tipped by both tipsters.
Just because its tipped twice ,does not mean it has twice the chance of winning.
One will find it more profitable, long term, running with this rule .

At the dramaticly increased objective odds, one does not have to be lucky all that often to show a profit.

Go over some past results & see if this is so & get back to us to share ones findings.

I hope this helps towards your question.

Cheers.

__________________
Cheers.

ok just got back to this thread and saw all the replies.

Value is getting better odds then the "true" chance of the horse.

If one ratings service has it at 2/1 and the other has it at 4/1 then one of these (or possibly both) has got the chance of the horse winning wrong.

The true chance of the horse might be 3/1 or it could be 6/1. You won't know until after many races. Historical figures give an indication on whether or not your rating gives the "true" chance of a horse winning but not always as the past doesn't always repeat in the future.

But if you want to know the best indicator of a horse winning then you should look at the price. No matter how many experts you look at the public is always better at determining the "true" chance of a horse. If a horse is starting at 3/1 then more than likely his chance of winning the race is 25%. Of course if your looking at the Tote then you really are looking at an 85% market so the chance is actually less than 25%.

Then if you can get higher odds then the tote (by at least 20%) then you are getting good value and will probably win longer term.

So now you are probably going to say this isn't going to help anyone because betfair usually only has horses at 10% - 15% higher than the tote. But as Chrome Prince pointed out a couple of days ago, if you look at the PPM selections you will get great value on the long shots at betfair and they can be more than double the "true" chance. This will eventually result in a long term profit.

Good Luck.

There's value on the back and the lay sides of the ledger. If you can't back at the price you want, then lay it!

I'm 100% with Top Rank on this. There's just too much subjectivity over what the term "value" mean's. For me I prefer to talk in terms of advantage. I know that over time my top ranked horse (regardless of it's rated odds) wins a certain percentage of races (A). Using the SP's I can work out how often the top ranked horse is expected to win (B). If (A/B)-1 if a positive number then I have an advantage, and I don't worry too much about the short term prices. It's how things pan out in the long term that matters.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash