Really?

Well thank you..I think

I been here for sometime, just ain't been posting.
Have noticed most of my posts are topsy turvy and chop and change.
I understand the idea of VALUE but I still can't seem to make it concrete into my brain.
I have this problem with most truths in my life.
Fun and laughter spoil my carefully laid plans.
A bit like the hangover the next day, when you decide you not gonna drink too much tonight.

I miss DURITZ.
He sounded like he was on the verge of making millions of dollars.
Then it went quiet.
Maybe he found Paradise?
Good luck to him whatever.I learnt some good stuff from him.
And Wesnip is still battling on with his dreams of Gold.
Does anybody here like to announce that they derive their total income support from Punting?
Does anybody like to announce that they actually won money over the past 12 months from doing what they do?

This is all good if you only bet on one race and then give punting away.
Winners are winners regardless of price...that is true Beagle.
But look at it this way. I'll give you 2 points less than the TAB on all your selections.Would you be happy with that?
You must consider all your bets, not just the winners.
If you invested $25,000 in the last 12 months and are returned $30,000 then if you got say 9-4 about those winners rather than the 3-1 , you would have lost money.

Look at this scenario as well.
There are 3 runners in a race.
You think No 3 has no possible chance of winning.
You think No 1 has a good chance and should win.
But you also think that No 2 has almost as good a chance as No 1
The tote is showing No 1 at $1.50 and No 2 at $3.20
Which horse would you back?
This is how Value can be seen.
Can you now see that No 2 is VALUE and No 1 is not, based on your thinking about the race?

I made a 5 figure profit last year ( Jul 06 to Jun 07) but it isn't my main income.

Good Luck.

You must frame to 100% or less.
Even if your market is more accurate than the Bookmakers, if you accept only 10 cents more than you decided was appropriate with a rated market using 114% , you will lose every time.
It is irrelevant what percentage the Bookmaker frames at.
Even if he frames at 200%, you must get a price that is above the True chance of your selection.
But if your prices are wrong, you will lose just the same.
How do you know if your prices are right?
Use a feeler guage.
Insert it in your wallet, the thinner the guage is , the more accurate your work.
And it don't matter whether a punter understands or believes in VALUE...the bottom line is , if you are winning, then you are getting Value, whether you see it or not.
It is just, if you can see why, then you can increase it to higher levels.

I'm sorry Wesnip.
I'm sure you would know, but I have trouble believing that.
I keep thinking ...if I can't do it, then no one can.
I suppose I'm just foolish in not accepting what you say and I should be reading all your posts and learning from your wisdom.
But I have read some of your stuff, and it doesn't really strike me as that coming from a person with a mansion and a Mercedes.
Maybe I need to take my blinkers off for the 1st time.

Well, it's obvious at least that I am not alone being slightly perlexed with the value thing, "angry" says if you can't get the price you want then lay it, mmmmm yeeaaahh, mmmmm , but the grey area is "the price you want" isn't it, I mean I still think it will win but I can't get 3-1, .....so I lay it??? nah, doesn't sit right with me. Maybe that's why I'm still an "aspiring" pro! and not already living on the Gold Coast selling tips (or ratings)

Moeee,If I frame my market to 100% or less I will never be able to place a bet.99% of my punting is done on the first three horses in the market.

As I said we can frame our own market to whatever percentage we choose.However the reality is that we dont have any control over the true market.

By the way,it is good to see you back contributing to forum discussion.

Moeeee,

The trick is to always look for new ideas to add to your betting. I have a couple of main systems that I follow and always have a couple of new ones going on the side. But I can understand if you can't believe, I probably wouldn't believe anyone either ... but at least i have the cash in the bank which keeps me happy...

It takes a while but once you click on the right ideas and find something that works you will start making some cash.

I didn't really start to make money until I got my own database of results together to test ideas.. from there its easy...

And Value is one of the keys when you understand how to use the tote board as an indicator of chance.

Good Luck

Poop, it's about having confidence in your assessment of the true winning chance. Don't forget that a horse assessed at 3/1 is going to lose three in every four races. If you think it's going to win anyway then stay away, but you'll be giving up 75% of your chances at a profit.

Moeee, I'm a five figure bloke as well. Generally Saturday's and public holidays only. Up to you whether you believe it or not. Not my only source of income.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Yes, you blokes are slowly converting me to the possibilities of laying, just seems so complicated to me, and I know that's when I make mistakes, so.. so far I've stuck to what I know. Angry, the confidence thing I realate to, and yes you can always leave it alone if you can't get set; but still think it will win, as you say you will be wrong most of the time anyway.