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  #11  
Old 1st February 2008, 07:11 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by crash
That's a whole lot different to making 3% EVERY day.
True but you have to start at day one!!!!
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  #12  
Old 2nd February 2008, 11:21 AM
darkydog2002 darkydog2002 is offline
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Smile

Well that was a nice little disaster yesterday for me but hope springs eternal.

Cheers.
darky.
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  #13  
Old 2nd February 2008, 11:27 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Crackone
Not every punter is capable (mentally & financialy) of betting 100's of dollars on a race.

Thought I would give it a go today Thorns, progressive betting the Fav. all races on Betfair (trotts, dogs as well)

$84 opening balance.
achieved 3% of balance 8 times
longest run of outs was 4 (target was about $12 from memory) Biggest bet $4.50
closing balance $106

Cheers
Thats a nice start, although I know it was a pretty good run of favs, and eventually using just the favourite, it will fall over eventually, I have tried using that before. Have also tried it using the fav for a plcae, but again a bad run quickly spirals out of control. But it is all just a bit of fun for me at the moment, I know it is a pretty hard task in reality.
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  #14  
Old 2nd February 2008, 12:36 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
Thats a nice start, although I know it was a pretty good run of favs, and eventually using just the favourite, it will fall over eventually, I have tried using that before. Have also tried it using the fav for a plcae, but again a bad run quickly spirals out of control. But it is all just a bit of fun for me at the moment, I know it is a pretty hard task in reality.
Yes it will fall over eventually with a run of outs, you would need a stop loss set up, say if you loss 5,6 or 10 in a row whatever figure suits the individal maybe a % of your bank stop betting for the day.

With the small bank the bets aren't going to get out of hand. I did stay away from the shorter priced one's. if the shorties fall over thats when the progressive betting can spiral out of control.( doubles the next bet)

Cheers and have some fun with it.
Will try again today, will report back.
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  #15  
Old 2nd February 2008, 08:58 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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Well a day that went nowhere.
Balance open $106 close $105.50

hit target 18 times
reset target 3 times after 6 consecutive loses, these loses added up to $45.43
Betting was not on all Fav. and not only for the win.

Thorns this is not the same as your first post. I could have stopped when the first 3% was made, ( four times today infront) most of the day was chasing my loses.
No damage done to the bank and there is more races tonight.
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  #16  
Old 2nd February 2008, 09:41 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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after a few more bets tonight balance $115.50

Day two open $106 close $115.50.
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  #17  
Old 3rd February 2008, 12:57 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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I guess another option you could use if you hit a run of outs that threatens to up the bets too much, would be to take what losses you have, and break them up into 2 or 3 different targets, and then try and recover them that way. Say you were chasing $30, break that up into three lots of ten, and try grind your way back into profit that way.
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  #18  
Old 3rd February 2008, 01:10 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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Wondering if anyone has any figures available, strike rates, profit/loss, for backing favs, where they are 2 or 3 dollars clear of the second favourite? Perhaps both win and place?

e.g Fav $3
2nd fav $5

I would be assuming that the bigger the gap the higher the strike rate.
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  #19  
Old 3rd February 2008, 04:49 PM
Crackone Crackone is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by thorns
I guess another option you could use if you hit a run of outs that threatens to up the bets too much, would be to take what losses you have, and break them up into 2 or 3 different targets, and then try and recover them that way. Say you were chasing $30, break that up into three lots of ten, and try grind your way back into profit that way.
Yes could do this. What I did was after six loses (say $30) Put this amount aside and take the next winning bet (3% ) off that $30, then start again without increasing the target until the $30 was wiped off.

I have put it in a spread sheet so it is easy to do.

Day Three
Only had the five bets today, for the first set.
Open balance $115.50 Close $121.37 ( better than the 3% due to better odds than expected) account should be 123.37 at this stage but betfair have to take there share.

Thirteen steps of that magic 24 have been taken.
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  #20  
Old 3rd February 2008, 06:33 PM
thorns thorns is offline
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Good results so far. Had a play with it today as well (just on paper), and cleared 4 sets, but that was a pretty good run over the space of 90 mins or so. What has been you max drawdown so far, percentage of bank wise, before you have returned to profit. Have you got behind over 50% yet? And what are your thoughts on stopping after clearing one set for the day? Originally I liked the idea, but then I sort of came to the conclusion, that if the results are going your way, you might as well plug on, as there is no difference between the next race, or the next race you start on tomorrow.
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