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  #11  
Old 14th April 2008, 06:21 AM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
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Hi Reaper
I tested out that plan many years ago .
It will have it's good days & not so good days .
When I tested it, it managed to break even using TAB prices which is OK.
This means if one used it with Betfair prices it should show a profit.

I beleive the plan is out of print now & if its the same one I am thinking of , it targets the first 3 or 4 ranked in the pre-post market & then one bets the ones that have shortened in their ranking at jump time.

Heres a SIMPLE 2 HORSE PLAN that can hit a lot of winners ,that you may like to try out...

.Target the top 2 market favs at 1 min till jump. These have a statistical strike rate of 50%.

.Bet 4 units on the Horse you think should win & place 1 unit on the other horse as a saver bet .
You will have a greater chance of surviving the run of outs doing it this way, plus it will add a lot more interest to your punting, it also frees up your thinking when it comes to the question of value because you know you have the other horse covered..

You will also be amazed how often the other horse gets up over your selection, out of the 2 horses targeted, no matter what one tries to do to separate them. That will be the frustrating bit.
If one can get it right, there's a profit to be had.


.This way, it will conserve your betting bank & at the same time one will enjoy a 40-50% SR using the Betfair market.

.Make sure you have a betting bank of 60:1 ratio or more when level stakes betting.

. One will find it very challenging trying to profit using TAB prices, so try & use say IAS or Spotingbet or Centrebet (Best of 3 totes) if one wishes to place all bets at once or use Betfair if one wishes to bet race to race in front of a screen for even better prices.

.Do be prepaired for 20 outs in a row followed hopefully by a series on wins if betting just one horse a race.

.Try & work out ones results using percentages rather than actaual money won or lost, the figures will make more sence if its done this way.

.Do open up a Betfair A/C for superiour prices.

.Do download a copy of Bet Trader Pro, Free. (Google) Racing Traders to find it. That way, one can use 1 cent bets if you want to , which is great for testing out new systems without risking large amounts of money.

Cheers.
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Cheers.
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  #12  
Old 14th April 2008, 09:34 AM
crash crash is offline
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I had look at this system for Sund. [forget Sat. too many races] and as my idea is to keep the amount of bets down, I now ignore runners who did not start 21 days ago or less [need them fit]. It weeded out a few bets and they were either scr., over 50/1 or did no good anyway.

The results were nothing spectacular, but a small win for win bets anyway.

Sund.
GAWLER
4/4 [$3.10w 1.40p]
6/14 [$3.40w $1.90p]
GERALDTON
1/5 $4.50w $1.60p]
7/12 x
HAMILTON
8/14 x
9/10 x
HOBART
7/8 x
MUSWELLBROOK
7/10 x
SUNSHINE COAST
6/7,8 x
--------------------------------
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  #13  
Old 14th April 2008, 04:00 PM
crash crash is offline
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Thumbs up

Totals so far:
Win out 137 Win in 168.20 Profit 31.20
Place out 137 Place in 163.10 Profit 26.10
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  #14  
Old 15th April 2008, 08:51 AM
crash crash is offline
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Monday 14/4
GRAFTON
4/13 [1.80p] 14
5/7 x
6/12 x
SALE
7/10 x
8/12 [7.70w 2.80p]
TAMWORTH
6/9 [6.30p]
8/15 x
-----------------------------
Win out 7 in 7.70 profit .70
place out 7 in 10.90 profit 3.90
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  #15  
Old 15th April 2008, 05:19 PM
crash crash is offline
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Tuesday, Apr 15
STAWELL
5/8 [3.50p],10
8/9,11 [3.70p]
TAREE
4/8 x
5/8 [8.50w 3.00p],9 [1.50p]
6/14,15 x
-------------------------------
win out 7 in 8.50 profit 1.50
place out 7 in 11.70 profit 4.70
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  #16  
Old 15th April 2008, 07:35 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Nice work crash ...

Is there any reason you restrict to Monday to Friday (as per rules) ?

Good Luck
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  #17  
Old 16th April 2008, 07:40 AM
crash crash is offline
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Not really. The main reason is that on Saturday their is a heck of a lot of races to go through and I'm getting a bit lazy nowadays. Also I like to concentrate on form study for the main meetings. I did do last Sunday for this system.
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  #18  
Old 16th April 2008, 11:18 AM
jacfin jacfin is offline
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Default Limit weight

Hi Crash
I did a thorough analysis of all your published selections and I have a question.
Can you clarify for me how you determine the minimum weight? Is it the listed minimum weight after scratchings or do you take note of allowances?
Thanks

Last edited by jacfin : 16th April 2008 at 11:20 AM. Reason: Error in original
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  #19  
Old 16th April 2008, 01:58 PM
crash crash is offline
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I take no notice of allowances and I do the list of possible selections before scratchings [the night before]. I just pick lowest weight runners at 2nd or 3rd. start. If the lowest weight selections are emergencies, I note the next lowest weight. If the selected emergency is scratched, I select the next lowest weight runner[s]. For everything else I just cross off scratchings, those selections that haven't run for more than 21 days and anything about to jump at 50/1 or more.

Rough and ready I guess, but I didn't mind as I wanted to keep it simple to do and the number of selections down. The system might be improved if the selections were done after scratchings. I was thinking of doing that, but it will increase the amount of selections, but maybe not winnings. Who knows?

Here is my initial list from last night:

DEVONPORT
6/7
DOOMBEN
5/7
6/13
7/12,13
KALGOORLIE
3/7,9
4/10
5/10
6/11 [if scr. pick 9,10]
7/12 [if 14e,15e,16e out]
RANDWICK-KENSING
4/13,14
6/10,11,16
7/ if 14e out select 12
SANDOWN-HILLSIDE
2/9 x
4/10
5/13
6/15,16
STRATHALBYN
7/6,7
8/8
9/7,8

Last edited by crash : 16th April 2008 at 02:06 PM.
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  #20  
Old 16th April 2008, 03:52 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Nice one Crash, going well for quite a while now - but can you clarify please - your last reply says "I just pick lowest weight runners at 2nd or 3rd start" but your original rules said "Must be 3rd or 4th up". Can we presume this was just a slip of the pen ..er ...finger as todays selections look like they are based on 3rd and 4th up
Keep it up.....Mancunian
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