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  #11  
Old 9th June 2008, 02:46 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Hi, Mancunian.

Those extra selections would most likely be due to scratchings which we don't take into account.

Undoubtedly - and I certainly like the idea of getting them done the night before the races if the results are going to be almost the same.
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  #12  
Old 9th June 2008, 05:22 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Wink

A good day today. There was one scratching and from the remaining selections, all Unitab 96-plus pointers, two of them won paying $5.40 and all placed paying $3.70.

One selection tomotrrow:
Echuca R1 no.6 - Isa Halo. It has 95 Unitab points but is the second highest rated horse.
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  #13  
Old 9th June 2008, 10:02 PM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Gents,
For what its worth, here is a comparison of the 2 methods for races run on Mon 9 Jun - using NSW TAB divs.

CF and $ (selected night before) 3 bets for 2 winners and a 3rd
Out $3 - return for Win $5.60 / Pl out $3 return $3.70.
1 x 6 - Outlay $21 Return $27.80 = 32.3 percent profit.

CF and PR after scratchings (therefore only selected on raceday) using same rules as operated last Saturday. 7 bets for 5 winners a 3rd and 1 unplaced
Out $7 - return for win $13.70 / Pl out $7 return 7.80.
1 x 6 - Outlay $49 Return $60.50 = 23.4 percent profit.

Cheers.....Mancunian
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  #14  
Old 10th June 2008, 10:46 AM
Mancunian Mancunian is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

One selection tomotrrow:
Echuca R1 no.6 - Isa Halo. It has 95 Unitab points but is the second highest rated horse.
"Old" system for today selects:
Echuca R2 # 1
Echuca R8 # 10
Scone R4 # 10.

MAncunian
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  #15  
Old 10th June 2008, 11:25 AM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Talking

Great start, Michael. Congrats!!
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  #16  
Old 10th June 2008, 11:43 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Yes, Merriguy - a great start, but it paid a most disappointing $1.10 for the Place on NSW TAB, yet $1.50 on Unitab.

There have now been 4 selections for 3 winners for a POT of 170% (maybe just a lucky period at the moment) and all 4 have placed for a POT of 20%.

Mancunian, we have been looking at the CF method (with Unitab's 96-plus points) on another thread but yesterday I forgot to check them which your results show would have been a winning day. I'll also list the selections for the method on this thread.

Three today:
Echuca R2 no.1 - Araynam
Echuca R8 no.10 - Tarademus
Scone R4 no.10 - Carefully Chosen
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  #17  
Old 10th June 2008, 12:25 PM
Merriguy Merriguy is offline
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Should have kept quiet! Araynam no good.

I got $1.72 on Betfair for the place for Isa Halo; but only $3.95 for the win darn! (can never work out how to use those Smilies on this site!). Was betting 1:5 so that was O.K..

I realise to be balanced in reporting you need to stick to one Tab.

While speaking of B/F I often find that they are not as good for the win. I suppose it is the small pools in Oz racing.
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  #18  
Old 10th June 2008, 12:35 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Merriguy
While speaking of B/F I often find that they are not as good for the win. I suppose it is the small pools in Oz racing.


ive often found it hard to obtain value on bf with the well supported nags, seems the markets closely reflect the bookies odds, at the top end anyway, but once betting over abt $7 is where huge overs are often available
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  #19  
Old 10th June 2008, 12:55 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Question

Yes, Araynam was a disappointment.

I've noticed that all three selections today qualified because of the scratchings. There was one day where someone (Jimmy?) noticed that some selections only qualified because of scratchings and that they did not fare too well.

We'll see how the other two selections go.

Stugots, I've also noticed the same situation with Betfair. In fact, there have been several double-figure winners that have paid almost twice the NSW TAB divvy.

Last edited by michaelg : 10th June 2008 at 12:58 PM.
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  #20  
Old 10th June 2008, 01:51 PM
stugots stugots is offline
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Question nsw tab

just on the nsw tab michaelg, on the face of it would you agree that of the 3 tabs, it's div's are usually the lowest?

havent done any research & have never bet with nsw, just an observation after watching hour after hour, day after day, year after year of sky

(note to self - must get a life!)
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