Not a good day yesterday - th re were two placegetters from the three selections for a return of $2.24.

Today's selections;
Morphetville R6 no.3 - Billy Jo
Bairnsadle R5 no.8 - Over Quota.

Hi Michael,


I would seriously consider not betting on selections that combined give you a profit of 24c after TWO sucessfull results.

That maths is against you. Lets say that one horse payed 1.24 take that and say there will be 10 bets where you get that 9 x 1.24 = 11.16
8 x 1.24 = 9.92

I realise that there were 2 horses one 1.2 and the other 1.04 on NSW TAB BUT

At 80% strike rate you are LOOSING, sure such low divs will or should ensure that the horses probably will run a place but somwhere in the 85% which is your break even. All you have is a good strike rate and no money, unfortunately.

Consider this

You loose 2 selections paying 1.2 that is -$2

To recover that loss you will have to win the NEXT 10 races at that Div JUST TO RECOVER.

Im talking about divs brackets, obviously your next bet might be $1.6 and next $1.4 and so on and you'll need only 4 of those to recover. By looking at the strike rate in the price ranges you will be able to make a educated decision and leave races that are risky in terms of loss recovery.

Take weekend Hustler Im sure he was 1.04 for a place ?
That loss will now take TWENTY FIVE CONSECUTIVE wins JUST to recover. Do you now see how fantactic value that bet is for the bookies, 1 in 25 for break even and 2 in 25 and they are infront ........

Im also Sure that there isnt a horse running on ANY Sunday that Justifys $1.04.

Look for profitability of results NOT strike rate of results.

Michal

Hi, Michal.

I know a punter who bets mainly for the Place and will not touch any horse under $1.30, which makes sense especially due to the NSW TAB's method of rounding down.

However it is almost impossible to predict a Place divvy. One day my friend would not bet on a horse which was showing a divvy of $1.20 a minute or so before the start time - it eventually paid $1.70, and this was on a Saturday when one would expect minimal fluctuations during the last minute.

I agree it would be best not to touch the low divvies but again, one just cannot tell what a it will pay. So if it is a system selection I have to list it.

As a matter of interest, today's Bairnsdale selection is currently showing a Place divvy of $1.04.

Both yesterday's selections placed for a return of $2.74.

There have now been 6 placegetters from 8 selections for a POT of 12.5%.

One selection today:

Townsville R6 no.1 - Culminante.

michaelg, I've mentioned this b4, as it's topical I just thought I'd point out that my average divi is around $1.52c so nearly all favs or so, but in 4 years I've only had a handful paying $1.04c when backing BEST TOTE, it often happens that the nag pays $1.04c on one tote or even $1, and as much as $1.80c on the other, in fact I rely on this difference. keep up the good work!

Hi Michaelg,
Looks promising so far.
Can you say at this stage what the Neural sttings are?

Cheers

__________________
Cheers.

Hi, Bhagwan.

The rules are:

1 ) 8 to 13 starters.
2 ) All horses with at least two starts.
3 ) Default neural settings, but TIM at 0.
4 ) Must have top outright neural points.
5 ) Top or second top in the BP category.
6 ) Placed at last start.

Every now and then I also look at the top selection in other categories but have never recorded the results - might do so one day.

Off topic - anyone ever looked at the ratings on the Sky channel website? Yesterday I layed one horse per race that was in the Betfair market (under $11.50) but not selected with the top 4 Sky ratings - I had a very good day. I've never looked at their ratings so I'm curious if anyone else has.

Yesterday's only selection was unplaced.

There have now been 6 placegetters from 9 selections for a break-even result.

Two selections today:
Dombeen R8 no.4 - Acquired
Canterbury R7 no.3 - Hormones.

michaelg,

I had a quick look at the sky ratings a while back with the same aim as you for laying. I only looked at it for a couple of weeks but it didn't work. Had a few good days but then hit the bad day which gave it all back.

Let me know if you find anything useful.

Good Luck.

Since you like running testing systems here is a simple one for you.

Any horse starting within 6 days (ie under 1 week) that is up in weight.

Someone else around here might be able to run some stats for you. If you want a heap more systems email me and I will point you to a great site with hundreds of systems to try.

Good Luck.