Hi topsy99,

Great to see someone thinking outside the square and trying a new approach. Congratulations on your recent longshot winners - hope it continues into 2010 and beyond! It's good to see that you are reaping the benefits of your years of "hard work".

I've just started looking at determining the "Field Strength" of Saturday Melbourne City meetings. It is very early days but it did "throw up" Tears I Cry last week - it's too early to put the cold hard cash as yet so I had to just watch and wonder what could have been!

That's the trouble with anything new - it takes time to build the data base.

I'm not claiming anything with this method other than it sems helpful.
i am thrilled to get a 66/1 winner on a horse i should have backed anyway.
another factor is that most races do not have a listed horse in them and i dont touch those races.
I build the database from the results in mondays thoroughbreds page in the australian. its easy to do doesnt take as long as agonising over a race.


maybe i could help you with the database. you also need to be able to search the data base to match the races today so that the horses are automatically found and a small gwbasic program to check each name and to add up the points for you then you write the points next to the horses name.

take tears i cry for instance in any race where he was thehighest scorer at 22/1 he would have repaid 22 even bets for that win. thornhill recently won in adelaide with 25 points at 16/1 its as good as any system and better than most. its the trainer's job to win the race not mine.
i recall daunting lad and dance the waves in november in brisbane dance the waves had 28 points and daunting ld 29 i think the quinella was over 100$ surprised that any punter would want to go back to the dark.
let us know.

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laurie

Interesting thread Topsy. I had a few dollars on Dual Chamber in r8 at Eagle Farm. It won. I couldn't believe $60 was available about it. In a field of 13 it beat the 3rd. horse home by 5 lengths in a Listed race at the same track in June, ran a decent 4th. in another Listed race then went for a spell. I ignored its first run back as not much went right from the widest barrier - 18.

i backed it last start. it had 3 points in saturdays races and i had a couple ahead also i didnt go down that far to check the price. a good result though wasnt it. i backed captain sonador with 7 points.
alverta had 23 points and was easily ahead in its race.

there is some fun in the method.

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laurie

Keep up the good work topsy.
I do recall you mentioning this years ago here and wondered how it was going.
I think it's only natural to post enthusiastically after an idea snags a 66/1 winner.
Where would we be without Partypooper and his Plum Movers ,)

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Chrome, yes credit where its' due, I also remember Topsy posting this idea many years ago, whilst it too far removed from my ideas I still acknowledge that it seemed to have some success.

and you are spot on with the ref to PPM, let's remember that a method that produces 10% winners at an ave. @ 11-1 is a goldmine!

I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Does anyone rember Action Pak winning the Kalgoorlie Cup last year 2008 at $55 with 8 points. No form but won 5 starts ago. the 8 points is a clue.

I dont want to be a smartie in putting this stuff up but if it helps anyone else then thats good.
In the case of Action Pak would I have been better off backing the favorite.

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laurie

Thanks for the positive feed back its very encouraging.

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laurie

[QUOTE=topsy99]I guess reality struck me with racing. it is a very good punter who can make money at the game and i guarantee i am not one of those. But I can put $50 in my tab account on first of january and still have it there on 31st of december and that has to be a huge saving on money spent elsewhere. And isnt it about the entertainment and the thrill of scoring a good result.


Well said Topsy99, too many punters follow the sheep inherant of the pitfalls,
as you say "think outside the square" grab a line and follow it, who Knows where it may lead, but you will have an exciting journey along the way.
Well done and good luck for the future(keep chasing the grail).
Regards
shalor

Hi Topsy99,

Do you treat all Group 1 races (and G2, G3 and Listed) the same irrespective of whether they are 2yo, 3yo or older, with regards to the points you apply?