Yes. group one. is group 1 dont try to put values on that may or may not be of any use. e.g. a south australian group 1 may be considered inferior to melbourne but i recall On a Jeune (placed in SA Derby) winning cranbourne cup at 42/1 also allez wonder placed vrc oaks last year winning listed at kembla grange (3/09 same day as New Edge)at 50/1 then the toorak at 43/1 just accept what it says. trying too hard has often cost me in the past.
best wishes.

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laurie

As a matter of incidental fact, did you know that backing all outsiders on Betfair is a profit, I think it's anything over 500/1.
It's a long long time between drinks, but they do lob more often than the odds suggest.
It's actually the reason why laying at $1.01 to $1.04 is profitable

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Hey Topsy99,

Does a horse need to have won at listed level to qualify to begin with?

Thanks for sharing your idea as it gets the grey matter out of it's solid state!

Cheers
Twodogs

yes they must place at listed level or won .
Or better e.g. group level. Dont qualify a horse because you had a bit of luck with him. Class will catch them out.

In some cases i qualify a higher staked race as in cases like brisbane there are not that many listed and group races and brisbane is a good racing venue.
in adelaide i give the $41,000 race a listed b level which still counts as 2 for win and 1 for place.
I only qualify Perth races on listed or group level as the prizemoney is greater than Adelaide or Brisbane.
I have found over time that putting higher staked country races in is risky and tend to ease up here. Benefits of what I do is that my betting is relatively restricted and a lot of days there are no bets.
You see some odd results i recall in 2007 Our Bahare whose only claim to fame was placing in the vrc derby in 2003 and rarely won a race he won at 36/1 from barrier 1 as the only listed horse in a race at mornington in 2/2007
then followed up next start and won the stoney creek cup at 12/1 I was lucky enough to be at Hobart races that day. But what this says is that "we often know too much" and make decisions according to our memories of a horse or prejudices or hype. The scoring takes the prejudices out and backing selective races lessens the accummulated losses to enable us to take more risks with longshots. Maybe the trainer knows his horse is the best in the race and when they get a barrier it delivers. A simple test can also tell us the same information.

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laurie

Sound advice Topsy,

By restricting yourself to the top echelon of horse flesh, at least you guarantee that class is always on your side.

As these class horses get older, they do tend to get unreliable, so if you can stick like glue, chances are you'll snag a winner at tasty odds. Maybe put a ceiling on age at say 7 or 8 years old?

Do you keep stats on the age of your longshot victories Topsy?

I like what you said about taking the emotion out of it. We punters tend to forget that we're backing horses and often hold personal vendettas against individual nags for one bad run when we had a stack on (case in point for me Almohad) or lost a race in a photo.

What I do like about quality horses is that they do tend to be reliable, now as for jockeys...........

Two shoes

every saturday there is a couple of long priced winners and occasionally on sundays. although i am not a lover of sunday racing due to short odds.
a factor i use is to use the year of qualifying as a divider.
e.g. as per our bahare qualifying in 2003 and backing him in 2007 which is almost 4 years 11/03 to 02/07 tells you that it has not performed in listed class for several years and for this reason you will need longer odds about it.
eg. you wouldnt take 3/1 about a horse like that. and there are many of them. take a horse like fraaclase qualified in 2005 and always looks a chance but rarely wins. 4 years since listed qualiying so you wouldnt take short odds about fraaclase in fact backing it with counterfeit money may be adventurous. I would want 20/1 about fraaclase but you wouldnt get it but the 4 odd years of no placings in good races tells you something and maybe it tells you to leave it alone. However on the plus side I used to be incredulous about Tora Tora Tora in Adelaide and talk about flogging a dead horse but he has repaid me handsomely lately (he qualified in 4/06) since he moved to country nsw and won some cups. most of them have their day I even backed General Albert in Perth 2 months ago at 33/1 couldnt do anything in melbourne.
Take Tarzi (WA Champ) has 3 point 3/05-9/07 in Victoria (30 months) now has 49 points due to becoming a top performer in Perth. You cant carry your prejudices can you. Hope this is helpful Use the year of qualifying as an indicator.
8 Proart (5) 59.0 5yo ch h (A Durrant at Lark Hill) P Hall
"proart(good)(1400)(ascot)21-11-09)8"
tw 59.0, mb 0 wc 56.0, ww 56.0 Fred Factor: 2.331

Information is pulled out automatically on a Perl programme that I use on cyberhorse zip files hope it helps you.

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laurie

Thanks Topsy99,

Much appreciate your explanations and examples as it helps to look at them to see what your talking about.

Regards
Twodogs

"rabbuka(g",7
"spinney(g",33
"lyncean a",4
"rockwood(",15
"parfumier",1
"rags to r",31
"our lukas",5
"hairy(goo",7
"love and ",21
"adnocon(g",2

for those interested these are the villiers numbers this is not designed to be a tipping list the judgement is for the interested the miscellaneous g and brackets are rough programming

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laurie

Thanks Topsy99

Have done the race now myself and have pretty much what you have except for Rags to Riches as the data base I am using doesn't go back to the start of his career.

Cheers
Twodogs

also not the horse it was. was placed in this race last year though.

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laurie