I think everyone struggles to make times pay at one point or another.
To be candid, the other product has a newer way of calculating pars which has seen somewhere in the vicinity of a 4% to 6% improvement.

I'm not convinced they are doing it the right way though.
A tell tale is in the odds generated for their pp market.

I don't want to go into this much more, as I'm not a product knocker.
I personally have it and it suits a purpose, but in my opinion there are a number of shortcomings I'll keep to myself.

Onto other things.

The trots are a very good learning place about the impact time.

Two horses can run a mile in 1:59.90, one can be a champion, the other a battler from the bush. The key is in knowing how to rate the same exact times differently.
If one used 1:59.90, you'd have them rated equally, one will be well unders, the other well overs.
One will continue to win races, the other may win one more race in it's career.
Given that the trots are run a little differently, the main principles are the same.
Running time tells you the race was a competitive race, but it doesn't tell you if the horse won running away or won by a lip under the persuader.
It doesn't account for position in running, if it swooped from the back or was taken on up front, or left alone up front and dictated the whole race.

Of the two 1:59.90 horses, it is crucial to know how fast they did their early splits in and how fast they came home.

They could have jogged early and flew home for a sizzling final quarter adding to an overalll quick time.

OR they could have gone hard early, took a breather mid race and sizzled home.

OR they could have sizzled early and plodded home

All having the same race time.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi there Iomaca,

I'd love to have a look at these par times of yours. Any chance I could be included in that email please.

Much appreciated.

Paul...............................email addy
pauls @ tsn.cc

is that just a com or is there an au at the end as well.

I use Oracle database, so I can only send it as an Excel or text file.

Hi Iomaca

I would love to see the par times you have. I have tried looking for your email but cannot access it. mine is adie @ emeraldideas . net

I will try a few different methods and systems with them to see what i can come up with.

it would be fantastic if there was a software that had a database of all horse racing results over the last 10 year in australia with all the data (barrier no, weight, jockey,track, etc) for each horse in the race with All the times the races were run in. That way if you come up with a new system you can test it on the old races to see what selections would have been chosen and you could see what S/R would have been achieved.

cheers

[QUOTE]Hi Chrome


I may be wrong with this assumption as i do not have a database to test this but this is what i will be looking into with the par times.


cheers

I have such a software but it's not for sale.
You can buy BetSelector, reasonably priced or a much more expensive one, can't recall the name, supposed to be the best.

ChromeP can tell you about the former and I think Bahgwan has the other one.

Files sent, 5 Excel files not too big, should go through.

Let me be perfectly candid here and reveal all my cards, as I think it's only fair with what I'm about to post.

I own a copy of Bet Selector Platinum Professional
I developed and market RaceCensus Horseracing Database with the help of this site.
Both products have pluses and minuses to them.

One product will suit some type of punters and the other is an alternative to the other.
Both products are tools to help punters, and both have their place in the market.

I'll try and explain the main differences:

RaceCensus was originally developed as a cheaper alternative and a bare bones system tester that had past data and didn't cost the earth.

The other product takes an extremely long time to analyse results, because ratings are calculated on the fly. So to change one parameter and rerun a test takes in excess of 9 solid hours, even after a computer defrag.
However, the other product can download form and results and automatically parse the data.

Since time has gone on and RaceCensus has developed a little and so has PPP, I became a little unsatisfied with the way in which ratings were calculated. The forecast prices became extraordinarily unrealistic at times.
However, PPP has it's place and is a good product, if you want print outs of the days bets etc.

RaceCensus by comparison cannot download form and results, but can be updated monthly via importing a simple spreadsheet.
By comparison, system tests are lightning fast, for example a test in one program takes 9 hours and 45 minutes on a Pentium 3Ghz with 2GB ram.
Racecensus takes 2 minutes 45 seconds (once the records have been indexed for the first time). This is a massive difference when making adjustments to system tests along the way and re running them.

RaceCensus is currently being updated with Metro AND Country races since 1998. Many errors are picked up by my program that go undetected in others, because I am alerted to index mismatches or missing data.

Nothing is added to the program that hasn't been either popular request, or is beneficial to the punter (i.e. it works).

Example: I'll never price an unraced horse at 1000/1 not knowing anything about it at all, it seems totally illogical to me.

But different people have different expectations and requirements.

I am currently working on "time" as I've mentioned, but won't add it until I'm perfectly satisfied with it's performance over years of data.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Hi Iomaca,

Thanks again for your reply. My email addy is pauls@tsn.cc

No coms or au's or anything like that. Just,............

pauls @ tsn.cc

Thanks again, and excel is fine.

Paul

On its way.

Good luck

Thanks for that Iomaca. I would like a software that would have or allow you to imput a handicap of lenghts converted to time for each variable of the race and add it on to the estimated time for a particualar horse...for example:

Say we looking at a race at Rosehill over 1200m on a Good track. Horse No. 1 has 1 previous start over this distance and ran 1.5L 2nd in that race from barrier 1 and the race was run in .59.5 - We want the software to calculate the est time he ran that race as we only have the time of the winner. So the program computes his time as 59.25. (.25 for 1.5L..we should be able to enter our own estimate also and the length time must differ for each track condition 7L on heavy will be slower that 7L on good etc)

We then want the programme to add on an estimated additional time for the new race. So we enter the current details of the horse for this race...he is carrying 2kg more and starting from barrier 10 racing on dead track. so we want the software to add an extra 1.5 seconds to his est time for the dead track condition and say .16s (1 length) for his wider barrier position and .30 for the extra weight. The programme would then give us an est time (in this example 1.01.21) for the current race for each horse based on there past and current details.

Is there any software out there that has the capability to do this?

cheers