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  #21  
Old 15th July 2010, 11:36 AM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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Have you checked to see if it would be better to lay to a fixed stake or a fixed liability
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  #22  
Old 15th July 2010, 06:01 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Shaun,

I lay the same amount per horse and am hoping to increase over time. Fixed liability might work.
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  #23  
Old 15th July 2010, 06:04 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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First day of testing i only used 10c lay stakes to be sure my bot works, had some problem with Geelong with VFG i was getting no data for the races.

Total Lays 78
Wins 62
Accidents 16
S/R 79.5%
Loss -$3.70
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  #24  
Old 15th July 2010, 06:49 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I ran a comparison between $5 fixed stake or $100 fixed liability for todays results for me.

$5 fixed stake max price $20 -$189.15
$100 fixed liability max price $20 $190.25
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Last edited by Shaun : 15th July 2010 at 06:56 PM.
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  #25  
Old 15th July 2010, 08:34 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Shaun,

Look at todays results and anaylse it by price range.... what do you notice ?

I suggest splitting it into the following categories:

Under $5
$5-$7
$7-10
$10-15
$15-$20
$20-$40
$40 - $100
$100+

You should see a trend in where the profitable lays are.

For instance I came out $127 in front today where as you showed a loss.

It may make you rethink your max price $20....

Last edited by wesmip1 : 15th July 2010 at 08:37 PM.
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  #26  
Old 15th July 2010, 08:40 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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The $20 rule was what you have worked on.

Quote:
Originally Posted by wesmip1
Here is an easy laying system that anyone can use and make money.

You need to watching sky and have betfair open. Just before the last few horses are loaded (ie as late as you can), compare the lowest price shown for each horse (the lowest tote price being either untiab, nsw tab, or vic tab) and times it by 1.20 (ie add 20%). If any of the horses on betfair are available to be laid at less then this figure you will come out in the long term.

I usually stick to horses under $20

These are my figures for the last 7 days.

1033 lays for 152 winners(or accidents as Michealg calls them) and a profit after commission of 132.87 units.

I use a program to do it for me but it should work for anyone. You could also stop when your in profit for the day.

I added the betsheet from today.
Attached Files
File Type: xls BetHistory.xls (27.5 KB, 688 views)
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Last edited by Shaun : 15th July 2010 at 08:48 PM.
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  #27  
Old 15th July 2010, 08:52 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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Ive opened it up a bit in the last week as my bank has increased as Ive looked at the results and slowly taken it out. My minimum price is now $7 and max is $40. I found all the shorts were just going nowhere and sitting on breakeven or a small loss after commission...

I came to the conclusion that the fav-longshot bias actually worked if you stick to this method and go for the longer priced horses. I still make a good profit in the $7-$20 range, but anythign under $7 is not worth it.

If you check your results you should see a similar pattern.
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  #28  
Old 15th July 2010, 08:57 PM
wesmip1 wesmip1 is offline
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I just had a look through my account and I had 58 Bets under $20 today for a loss of $72. Yesterday I had 89 selections for a profit of $165.25.

ie these were all in the range $7-$20.
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  #29  
Old 15th July 2010, 09:54 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I had a look at my selections for the 7-20 range with 33 selections and showed a $4.37 loss for today so i guess our selections may be a bit different
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  #30  
Old 16th July 2010, 06:35 PM
Shaun Shaun is offline
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I am still testing with small stakes but using your $5 amount up to $20 showed a loss for me today of $144 i made a change on my sheet and am taking a fixed liability of $100 also showed a loss but of only $81.

using a personal liability of $2 i was down $1.62 after comm

Strike rate today was 67 bets 54 win 13 accidents similar to yesterday of 80%
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