Lomaca, there was unexpected rain last week , quite heavy too. But the drainage now is excellent, so doubt that it could have changed things that quickly, well, not for long.

There used to be big problems with water here a few years ago but since the upgrade its good.

You are probably right Party, I don't do well at all for a win at Perth but usually snare a couple of good place bets specially when certain jocks are riding for certain trainers of the same name and the odds are good.

Cheers

Gees.Wish I was betting today though-especially the first at Dubbo.
3 - 8 - 10.The trifecta paid $864 unitab for the $6 outlay.
Always the way isn,t it.?

Cheers
darky

Darky, because of that race (it was a Maiden) I'm checking today's Maidens.

I've limited the field to a minimum of 11 runners and looked at all horses in D.Scott's market that are under $50. So far it doesn't look too bad.

Devenport R1 had 7 selections. The method snared the winner of $84 and the quinella of $500. It also had the trifecta of $4,800, but I'm more interested in quinellas because of the TAB's smaller takeout.

Your mentioned race of Dubbo R1 had 4 selections, and snared the $95 quinella.

There are two more Maiden races in the system.

They are:

Bunbury
R3 nos. 2, 4, 7, 12, 14
R4 nos. 1, 3, 4, 7, 9, 12, 14.

We'll see how they go.

Pity about that Michaelg.
The prices were most excellent .
Cheers
darky

Michaelg,
Looking at Warnambool Race 5 For trifecta /1st 4.
2 - 7 - 9 - 10 - 11.
My thoughts are to remove anything under $3.00.
Any thoughts?

Cheers
darky

Darky,

My thoughts would be to only remove anything under $3, if you have it priced at over $3.

That way you are betting value and not just removing/betting selections for no logical reason.

Darky, re W'bool R5. Even though nos. 3 , 4 and 5 are not fancied in D.Scott's market they've all won at either last or previous start, and are high in the pre-post market.

I don't know how he gives them little chance. After saying that, none of them are in Unitab's top four raters, so your horses might provide a good exotic bet.

About removing anything under $3 - they always seem to provide poor value, except every now and then with Place betting.

michaelg,

They are only poor value if you have them priced at over $3.

Lighthuman2012,

I used to have a calculator where the Win prices of the three placegetters would be inputted, and the true trifecta divvy (it included the TAB 20% take-out) would then be calculated.

It soon became very obvious that the shorter the fave then the smaller the TAB trifecta divvy when compared to the true divvy. This was at its worst when the fave won the race, not too bad when it ran second, and was more or less what was expected when it ran third.

According to the calculator, even if one priced a $3 horse at even-money, it would in the long run pay less than what was expected, even though it might be profitable at Win betting depending on the accuracy of the ratings..