That TAB No.1 Lay Sytem struck 4 successes from 4 races.

__________________
Cheers.

Hi Mark,
Checked your lay system since last Wednesday 27/4 and got these figures

8/9 lays
88.89% lay strike rate ( average 1 pay out in 9 lays )
42% POT
current win sequence 7
13.01 average odds of all lays.

early days yet but looks very good.
Well done Mark.

Hi Raldridge,

Today's selections were Grafton R1 - 5, R2 - 2

Race 1 above was $3.8 fixed at the jump with IAS so this would have been laid operating under $10. Race 2 above would not have been matched with a max of $10 as this was around $30.

Ipswich R1 - 5 was the other selection which was $1.70! Another nice lay. I am yet to see one actually win (famous last words!)

Raldridge, Given it's difficult to place bets during the day. Are you able to see what the profit / loss would have been laying at Betfair SP with a lay price limit of $10??

If the figures stack up on the above then this could be a nice little set and forget lay method.

Please let me know and thanks,

Mark

Why dont you just use a Bot if you want set & forget.

Just set your price parameters & how many secs till jump & you done .

You will be laughing like a Hyena.

Try this Free Bot

BetSoftPro

Your system has been working well .
Wee done.

With that system criteria of say ##2x
How many days are you defining as resuming.
Different sauces use different days e.g. 45 days, 60 days, 90 days to define X

__________________
Cheers.

Results Fri 29/6/11

TAB No.1 Lay plan

Had 5 successes from 6
For level stakes profit.

__________________
Cheers.

Good Morning Bhagwan,

I will try that Bot you mentioned. As for days I didn't take this into consideration. Anything with a formline of 2X. Just been using Centrebet free form / racecard.

I have been using the standard 90 days for the spell when I enter the rules into Bet Selector.
And I use the 4% of bank for liability for staking so I cover all the bets the system comes up with even with $100 odds selections otherwise you are robbing yourself of lay collects restricting to odds under $10.
Admittedly one makes a lot less profit on the longshots but the risk is exactly the same for a longshot or an even money winner with liability betting and all bots I have looked at have the liability staking option.

Example for those that do not know about liability staking
$100 bank betting 4% of bank liability
4/99.0 this is odds minus 1 $0.04 = stake. profit= $0.04. liability = -$3.96
another example
4/1.00 = $4.00 stake, so profit = $3.80 after 5% commission is deducted and liability = $4. Betfair does not deduct commission on bets less than 10 cents because 5% works out to be less than 1 cent.

So you can see the liability is the same when the stake is worked out to the nearest cent. Liability is the amount you lose when a lay bet wins and you have to pay out to the odds less one.

On real longshots where the stake works out to be less than one cent of course no bet is placed ie 4/999 =0.004, this is for the longest odds you can lay/back on Betfair ie $1000 and the shortest is $1.01.

Betting to Liability is great ,it is one of the the safest approaches to use.
Sometimes called betting to odds.
It also makes the least profit.

Level stakes makes the most profit , but can be the most dangerous.

Another way of bet calculation is Betting to Price
Price divided into take out amount & the difference is our profit.
It has the ability to recover faster if bitten by a short priced conveyances.

It also has the advantage that it is spreading the days book value , out more evenly so percentage wise the lower priced runners don't quite have so much put on them, than say betting to odds, like betting to liability would normally do.

It is said that that betting to price reflects more like a Bookies book except its spread over different events.

Example No.1
BTP (Betting to Price)
10.00 / $1.60 (.60/1 odds on) = O/L 6.25
If unsuccessful , lose -3.75

BTO (Betting to Odds)
10.00/ .60/1 odds on ($1.60) = O/L 16.66
If unsuccessful , lose -10.00

This works out the same percentage in this exercise , but the difference is seen when multiple horses are selected in the same race with various prices.
That's where one will see the percentage difference kick in.

The main advantage betting to price, is that it is easier to recover from losses, especially if we get bit by any odds-on & general short prices shots.
Due to the outlays being dramatically lower on short prices & much the same on the higher prices.
In effect , it spreads the Liability out more & you have a greater chance of recovering in a timely manner if selections are OK.

When doing Lay betting , one has to think in terms of Liabilty at all times.

Example No.2
BTPrice
10.00 / $20.00 = O/L .50

BTOdds
10.00 / 19/1 = O/L .52
So one can see that there is little difference in this price range.
Its the shorter price range that has the huge gap in liability.(Risk) with these 2 approaches.

If both price ranges, in above example were unsuccessful, the combined loss would have been.
BTP
3.75 + .50 = -4.25

.50 goes into 3.75 = 7.50 times
The long shots have the feel of more value to recover the loss with less bets.


BTO
10.00 + .52= -10.52

.52 goes into 10.00 = 19.20 times
Its going to be a long climb up hill relying on long shots to recover this loss

There is a massive difference of 168% in Liability to recover here.
Its telling us that it is relying heavily on the short prices to fall over & the long price selection returns would be viewed as "chump change " in comparison.
I effect , the short prices are being over bet.

Its the same problem seen in Win only betting where the short priced Favs are often over bet.

So
BTP would be the stronger of the 2 approaches to use because recovery would be smother because there is less over betting on the short prices compared to long prices.



Remember:
The lower the Liability exposure , the greater the chance of making profit on a consistent basis

__________________
Cheers.

Bahgwan,

I would just like to say thank you for letting me onto that Betsoftpro. Seems to be easy to use and does the job ok. Just gotta get used to it and not make any erros with it.

What I find with fixed liability is that one falt stakes basis a good profit is made but on fixed liability it is not. As the longshot profits going down are minimal but when a short priced fav gets up I lsoe the full liability...This is a downfall with Betfair SP laying. The bot will resolve this issue!

With my suggested laying system below I really would not want to bet anything really more than $10 as one longshot would wipe us out potentially on a flat stakes basis.

I event tried my lay system last night on the UK races including hurdles and it was 5 selections for 5 losses and one was an odds on pop and two other were $5-6.

So it's not all longshots.

Well done Mark.
Its going well.

I'm glad you like the Bot
It can change the way one bets completely with its own built in discipline.

Another thing re those stats given.
Centrebet call X 90 days spell.

Gary Robinson, I believe, uses 60 days as X

There may be a big difference here in results.

I feel betting .6% of bank flat stakes.
Max price 10.00
Would work best for your plan.
Good for 22-28 outs depending on price.
And there would be no fear in taking on odds-on shots like there would be if betting to Liability.

__________________
Cheers.