Smartgambler
Pro-Punter

Go Back   OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums > Public Forums > Horse Race Betting Systems
User Name
Password
Register FAQ Search Today's Posts Mark all topics as read

To advertise on these
forums, e-mail us.

Reply
 
Thread Tools Search this Thread Display Modes
  #11  
Old 11th May 2011, 12:46 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Further on this
7 horse races 3024 races (7%)
Fav 1 .. 1090...36%
Fav 2 .. 682 ...22.5%
Fav 3 .. 484 ...16%
Fav 4 .. 351 ...11.6%
Fav 5 .. 214 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 138 ...4.56%
Fav 7 .. 65 ...2.1%
Again the last fav only has a meagre chance of winning
Reply With Quote
  #12  
Old 11th May 2011, 01:15 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

6 horses 1719 races (3.94%)
Fav 1 .. 678...39.44%
Fav 2 .. 384 ...22.33%
Fav 3 .. 285 ...14.54%
Fav 4 .. 197 ...11.46%
Fav 5 .. 124 ...7%
Fav 6 .. 51 ...2.96%
Note 20 of fav 6 wins were when the Fav was =<$2

5 horse races 631 races (1.44%)
Fav 1 .. 273...43.26%
Fav 2 .. 174 ...27.57%
Fav 3 .. 94 ...14.89%
Fav 4 .. 55 ...8.71%
Fav 5 .. 35 ...5.5%

Again saying that the favorites chances of winning improves with smaller fields whereas the the outsider still wallows.
Reply With Quote
  #13  
Old 11th May 2011, 01:43 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

9 horses 9th fav 57 wins for 5428 races
10 horses 10th fav 50 wins for 6026 races
11 horses 11th fav 45 wins for 5969 races
12 horses 12th fav 37 wins for 6276 races
13 horses 13th fav 31 wins for 3933 races
14 horses 14th fav 23 wins for 3997 races
15 horses 15th fav 8 wins for 1068 races
16 horses 16th fav 7 wins for 1091 races
>16 horses in 195 races only 1 winner 19th fav
In 8 plus runners the rank outsider has from 1.68% chance of winning down to Buckley's
Reply With Quote
  #14  
Old 11th May 2011, 02:05 PM
4legs 4legs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 96
Default

This is becoming very interesting. Thanks for those very informative posts Beton. Hopefully I can get back on to this over the coming weekend. I will keep you informed.

Fred
Reply With Quote
  #15  
Old 11th May 2011, 02:22 PM
beton beton is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 589
Default

Sick of writing so briefly
9 runners first 8 win 99%
10 runners first 8 win 97.38%
11 runners first 8 win 95.8%
12 runners first 8 win 93.4%
13 runners first 8 win 91.2%
14 runners first 8 win 90%
15 runners first 8 win 88%
16 runners first 8 win 85.5%
>16 runners first 8 win 78% 43 wins in 195 races all except 1 from the next 8 runners. Odd. larger fields must throw up some doosies.
I wanted to do this breakdown for a while.
Reply With Quote
  #16  
Old 11th May 2011, 03:17 PM
Mark Mark is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Location: Qld
Posts: 1,404
Default

4legs, if you come up with a system backing the first 7, 8, 9 whatever, in the market, you can get on with me.
Reply With Quote
  #17  
Old 11th May 2011, 04:06 PM
4legs 4legs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 96
Default

I agree with you there Mark. My interest was in a possible lay situation however the prices of the ones outside the top favourites are so high I am not sure if that would be feasible either, but Bhagwan made a suggestion in relation to that. At this stage I have spent so little time on it that all you could call it is an observation - but I have found the responses very interesting, and will spend a little more time on it when time permits.

Fred
Reply With Quote
  #18  
Old 11th May 2011, 07:10 PM
Bhagwan Bhagwan is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Jan 1970
Posts: 2,428
Default

Hi 4Legs.
Try this approach, it has shown to work very well.

RULES
.One race per venue.
Start at the first race of the day & work through to a qualifying race.

.Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

.Target 1 horse per venue.
10 venues = 10 selections.
This usually makes ones SR stronger, rather than chasing every race that moves, that's how punters get bit when Lay betting.

Try not to force a bet if there are no qualifiers for that race, that's where mistakes are made.


Lay Bet Method.
Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)
This is allowable by Betfair because its Liability is $30+

e.g. 6 races = if 6 successes = 3% increase on bank.
This could equate to 21%+ profit on bank per week.
That's good money.

I believe, one will be very successful, Cherry picking this way.

If you cant get your Lay price , maybe try your luck setting it for in running.

Give it a dry run on past results to see if you can make it fall over , before using real money.
__________________
Cheers.
Reply With Quote
  #19  
Old 11th May 2011, 08:51 PM
4legs 4legs is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Mar 2009
Posts: 96
Default

Thanks Bhagwan. It will be an interesting one to do a dry run on using past results. Hopefully I will start this weekend and will keep you informed.

I think I understood it all however, one question on your lay bet:

"Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)"

Am I correct in assuming that should be $10 per $200 bank?

Thanks. Fred
Reply With Quote
  #20  
Old 12th May 2011, 05:56 AM
thorns thorns is offline
Member
 
Join Date: Aug 2007
Posts: 446
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bhagwan
Hi 4Legs.
Try this approach, it has shown to work very well.

RULES
.One race per venue.
Start at the first race of the day & work through to a qualifying race.

.Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

.Target 1 horse per venue.
10 venues = 10 selections.
This usually makes ones SR stronger, rather than chasing every race that moves, that's how punters get bit when Lay betting.

Try not to force a bet if there are no qualifiers for that race, that's where mistakes are made.


Lay Bet Method.
Lay bet 1.00 per 200.00 bank. (.5% of Bank)
This is allowable by Betfair because its Liability is $30+

e.g. 6 races = if 6 successes = 3% increase on bank.
This could equate to 21%+ profit on bank per week.
That's good money.

I believe, one will be very successful, Cherry picking this way.

If you cant get your Lay price , maybe try your luck setting it for in running.

Give it a dry run on past results to see if you can make it fall over , before using real money.

So which horse do you select?

Target the first race you can find with 9+ runners. (Important)

.Must be $90.00 or less.
If not , move to next race.

Seems to jump a step there, or am I missing something completely?
Reply With Quote
Reply


Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search
Display Modes

Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is On
Forum Jump



All times are GMT +10. The time now is 02:54 PM.


Powered by: vBulletin Version 3.0.3
Copyright ©2000 - 2024, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.
©2008 OZmium Pty. Ltd. All rights reserved . ACN 091184655