Hi Thorns;

I read it based on the theme of the thread; for me it would have been the rank outsider of the field when they were under $90.

On the weekend I hopefully will have time to have a look at it and will post an update.

If this assumption is incorrect I am sure Bhagwan will set us straight.

Fred

Makes sense,
Would need to be pretty calm and clloected to lay some of those nags at the odds that some would be!

Thanks 4legs.

Fred
some things that i have noticed in looking at the favorite breakdowns are as follows. 3rd,4th,5th and 6th favorite s/rs are quite constant 14% 10% 7.5% & 5% plus or minus 1%. This is constant in field size track conditions etc. The second fav has a strike rate of 20% plus or minus 2%. It mirrors the first fav in increasing when the field size drops and decreasing with more runners.
Similarly when the track surface improves there is a higher strike rate in both the fav and the second fav. But still within that plus or minus 2%. The fav is about 32% plus or minus 4%. As more runners present the 1st and 2nd fav drop off whereas the other runners strike rates still stay constant.

THE ONLY FACTOR THAT CHANGES THE STRIKE RATES OF ALL HORSES IN ANY SIGNIFICANT MANNER IS PRICE. The shorter the fav is - the higher his strike rate (exceeding 80%) The shorter the second fav's price is the higher it's strike rate (exceeding 40%) Where both the fav =<$2 and 2nd fav are =<$3 they have the market, the kudos and the glory. When the fav price exceeds $3 then its strike rate and that of the second fav deminishes and the the strike of the 3-4-5 &6 fav come to their constant and increases.

In looking at the 3rd fav in six. a number of short favs fell over. These were maiden races. Hence I would be working this info into any laying longshot system.
Beton

Thanks Beton for another very relevant and informative post. If this observation was to become viable in the long term you would need to work some other items into it. The main problem I see with this strategy is the price of the ones you are laying, but I will do some work on this over the weekend and I will keep you informed.

However, irrespective or how this strategy goes, the information you have provided will prove to be invaluable in many future laying strategies, so once again thanks - your efforts in extracting and providing this information I am sure will be greatly appreciated by not only me, but by many others on this forum.

Fred

My analysis proved to be very quick. I think I can safely say this system will not work - or if it does the returns would be very, very low. The risk/return is not there as even if you were successful for 29 days, on the 30th day in the blink of an eye you have lost all your profits for the month.

After a month of watching Betfair when time permitted and with these results last night I now realise my mindset for Lay betting was totally incorrect - I simply saw it as the opposite to "win" betting. In a 2 team situation maybe this is correct, but even then it would be good to have "INSURANCE", and I think that word is the key.

On reflection, this has been said (probably many times) on this forum, however I did not have the correct mindset so I glossed over it.

So my new way of thinking is to forget SELECTIONS and concentrate on SITUATIONS which arise on Betfair - the ones where you can take a position and then insure that position, ideally for say a break even for a win and profit when it loses. Or at least a reduced loss if it wins when all does not line up.

Will this be easy? NO I do not think so.

Will it be Possible? I am not sure but I think it is as other posts on this forum also point to similar methods of operating - and the authors certainly seem to know what they are about.

Can I outline these situations? No, not at this stage - I would still need to do a fair bit of work in relation to this; but some of the comments made by others on this forum will be a good place to start.

I also think the stats provided in this thread may assist in identifying a suitable position.

I also realise there are many ways to skin a cat, and I am sure there are many other very successful lay methods out there - some even operating on this forum at the time of this post.

Fred

Good discussion so far. This is the premise behind my 3,4,5 system. Basically backing the next most likely if the odds stack up and ignoring 1st and 2nd fav. Plus the price is better on those

Thanks Max - I have been following your system and I think you have something going there.

I certainly found this thread very informative with some great contributions and I personally think the information in the thread would be beneficial, irrespective which way you go.

Fred