in your dutch betting are you guys just backing your top 5 or so or are you assigning price to selections and backing the overs?
i use to dutch bet and had good success with it.
i would take all horses that i assigned price to if they were overs i would back them provided i could make %70 profit and i would take quinella banking the biggest under or fav with my selections.
and are you guys talking about backing each horse to get back same amount?
and if so i have s/sheet that does that if anyone needs it.

Marcus,
I neither have the time nor the vibe to answer your comment.
But excuse me for being the one to remind those that are not aware of internet happenings if they go unchecked for the overzealous advertising guru's that prey on internet insecurities,your where abouts, your habits, and probably your personal details if given half a chance.
But if I got paid for knowledge of my internet whereabouts, well that's different.But ya don't get paid much by the advertisers for sending bets, it seems.

I am the "customer" is my choice of reference to be able to choose what comes and goes upon my internet connection and I should not have to pay for anit-virus,firewalls,advertising spy codes blockers and all the rest of it.
I would rather buy more tool type software or more $$ per hour towards my programers to do what they do towards my racing.


As far as paying for things on this forum, yes I have bought some products, software infact, and further more, it really is nuyabiziness.
Other forms of "payment" is shear entertainment.
I think I am funny !! or insane and paranoid, but I don't change my user name ! If i did, I may call myslef "verbalfingerprint" !
either way, I can larf, can you ?
Most of my posts are just that if it ain't about racing ,a larf in a monty python type of scenario.

My racing is serious though, it's money and time invested, others say it's gambling.
Start a new thread if ya want to take the issue further.

I have replied to Rikki, he will see where I am coming from, and possibly reply by email to.

On a serious note,there does not seem to be much on the original question of this thread, "staking plan for dutch betting".
I believe there ain't one,having the formula is one thing, applying the sum of the formula is another.

Hey puntz,

There seems to be some sort of issue as I still have not received any emails from you at support@ozmium.com.au


Kindest Regards,

__________________
- Rikki
OZmium Support

NOTE: All posts are my personal comments which may not be the view of OZmium Management.

Rikki, you should now have receieved it twice as a forwarded email from the original email address it came from.

however that email server has had some issues in the past, so one re-sent email would have come from the ISP email address and another secure email server. Both original messages would have come with the original email sent with an attatchment. Meaning, I sent it to myself to see if it works, it did, so perhaps there are issues elsewhere ?

Hi all,

Looking at topic this i dont see it going anywhere so ill put my little bit in.

Hows this look ?

If one would target say the 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 5th fav, leaving out the 1st favourite if it is paying less than 4 on the tab, dutch these four and create your own odds therfore allowing for last minute fluctuations, ie

5 min before jump.
2nd fav showing 6, make its odds 5,
3rd fav showing 7, make its odds 5,
4th fav showing 8, make its odds 6,
5th fav showing 9, make its odds 7.

Now:
outlay 100 units,

2nd fav 28 units
3rd fav 28 units
4th fav 23 units
5th fav 20 units

so if they come in and beat the fav,

2nd fav 168 units
3rd fav 196 units
4th fav 184 units
5th fav 180 units

Am i playing with fire or would a decent staking plan make it feasable, ive looked at a fair few races and often (look at qtab 100 pointers) the 1st fav goes under, so if we can either leave it out or wait till there is a race that the first fav is around 5, well i am open to your laughs and any serious comments.

Hope you all had a good new year and christmas.

Cheers
Dingoboy.

Dingo Boy, maybe someone can come up with some stats about how often the 2 3 4 or 5the favourite would salute if the fave was $4 or less. I f it was $3 or less I would leave the race but if it was $4 or more I would still leave the favourite out as their win percentages would be significantly reduced I think.

Gday Dr.

Exactly my thoughts, it would be interesting if the percentage of the 2nd, third, forth and fifth favs would make it viable to leave out the first, im sure someone has the stats, ive played with this and some races the return is in the area of 200%, BUT NOT EVERY RACE.

Cheers
Dingo

Dingo,
I have a program that does exactly what you ask.

The project started a while back and been refining it.
There are major issues with the markets if one thinks they can "trick" it by eliminating favorites, next 3, 4 or whatever.
The question on price reduction makes no difference either. It will, and can pay well under the prices one may choose to quote.

If, let's say you had a module selection system, meaning, Module A does selections as you mention, like I have, the module will be thrown away.
So Module B selection system would be re-created, and tested.

Module A is still on test using your similar method
20050105 18:26:53 --> BalanceA : 5580.20

today/now, the same parameters:
20050106 21:34:53 --> BalanceA : 282.10

This is leaving out the fav, next 3, 4, it don't matter.
It loses.

I can run a test, just let me know what parameters you want, and let it runa few days.
Starting balance would be best at 7500.00
There is no database to back test, it's set, and let run.

dingoboy,

A few years ago I ran a system on paper for a full year.

The system was the fav had to be 5/2 or better the second fav 7/2 or better, the third fav 9/2 or better and the fourth fav 11/2 or better.

If this scenario came up then the bet would be the same amount on the 3rd 4th and 5th fav.

The bet would be 1% of the bank on each horse.

Starting with a $10,000 bank after 1 year the bank was $500,000.

When the bet got to $500 per horse it stayed at that figure, the theory being that one had to get set and if the bet kept increasing it would be too hard.

In the one year there was many many losing days.

Only 4 losing weeks out of 52, but never a losing month.

This looked like the holy grail, but like most systems was worked out on the results the next day.

The main problem being, was as I said there was many many losing days,
so basically one could not miss one days racing, or in fact one race that complied with the rules, as sure as hell that would be the day when when you got the last 3 losing days back plus a good profit, or the race you missed is when the 10/1 salutes.

I still look at it now and again and it still works, but as I said nearly impossible to implement.

The other thing was that there were many days with no bet.

Cheers

By the way:
20050106 21:53:55 --> BalanceA : -42.90
============================


case scenario:
20050106 21:52:33 --> Market (20050106TG09)
T WIN
2. 2.80 out fav !
3. 4.60 in ?
1. 5.90 in ?
6. 7.40 in ?
8. 9.60
7. 10.30
5. 10.90
4. 72.10

updated just before start of race !
20050106 21:53:55 --> Market (20050106TG09)
T WIN
3 2.40
2 3.80
1 7.50
6 8.20
8 11.10
7 12.20
5 15.90
4 73.20
results:
2 $3.60
3 $2.20 !! for place
1 $1.30

This is just one race, but these scenarios
I am sure most are familiar with.