Ocho
I am only swimming here. I put it here as a contribution and hoped some feedback from the resident Gurus. The backing bet on the fav is a sacrifical bet to soften the ups and downs of the laying the three favs. The greater the amount the more you give away. I looked at a target of $30 and that was too high. I looked at a variable based on the odds and that was too hard to implement. So I figured that $12 would cover most ranges. The best return is only laying the top three if top =<$4. When I run my bot live it is not getting the three bets on and then I have the problem of multiple bets. If I could just be sure of getting the three lays matched then I would set and forget and just do the necessary each day to ensure that it is operating. Beton

Thanks Beton.

I will trial laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and the 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab but it will be a no bet race if the fav is over $4. This will be done on one bot. I'll try it on the UK races tonight and then on the Aussie races tomorrow to see how it looks.

I know you're only putting it out there for us but what do you think about laying the 1st fav for a $10 liability or have I totally missed the point (the point being I'm trying to use only one bot for the system)?

I think what you will find is that the races where the is 2nd fav <=4.50 will work strongest with what you are trying to do.

Also where the 1st fav is approx 2.50 & less.

Another way is add up the outlay for the 2nd & 3rd Fav
Then divide that figure by the Favs fractional odds to give us the amt to put on the Fav so it breaks even if it should win.

Example
Lay Bet 2nd & 3rd to say $30 Liab
2.88---O/L 9.22----Liab - break even
3.65---O/L 11.32---Liab - $14.65
5.90---O/L 6.12 ---Liab -$9.44

Total O/L $26.66

This makes the bet look like a 1/1 proposition as opposed to just taking the 2nd & 3rd fav on their own which would be double the Liab.

__________________
Cheers.

The Ocho,

I was alluding to the horse in the race with the shortest price, is often very good value with a very good chance.

An example on Friday there was a harness horse that closed at $1.70 on the tote and ticked all the boxes form wise, I managed average odds of $2.68!
Another example, is horses real short with the bookies, say $1.10 or $1.20, I've often secured $1.25 or $1.50 respectively.

While you may not win much, these sort of percentages on a regular basis, provide a nice profit and pay for commission.

I like to look at good overlays on hot pots, those that are not value, at say $1.15 or $1.25 (respectively) I like to lay.

But it also depends on the money on track, not all overlays are value, some are an indication that something else is being heavily supported.

Weeding out the good from the bad is the key here.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Thanks Chrome Prince. That certainly makes more sense but of course then you would need to be in front of the computer all day and it wouldn't be automatic (oh well, we can't have it all...lol).

Bhagwan. That is starting to make more sense but, again, you would need to be in front of the computer to work out how much to place on each 1st fav to break even on it.

There must be a way of generally coming out even on the 1st fav apart from backing and laying it on 2 different bots.

By the way, the UK races last night ended -$88 but the culprit last night was the 2nd fav being -127 and with the 3rd fav winning a few the total losses from these 2 picks was -160 (big turn around from the Aus races yesterday).

The 1st fav didn't win many races and ended up +72 at laying to $10 liab which means that the system would of finished ahead last night if all 3 favs were laid to $30 liability rather than just the 2nd & 3rd favs having a $30 liab and the 1st fav having a $10 liab.

The 1st fav example above though would not be typical because not many won last night. I'll give the above specs a go in today's Aus races.

Your right about the Favs falling over in the UK last night .

I counted nearly 20 in a row falling over, which can happen, but it is very rare.

There where heaps of 2nd & 3rd favs getting up, which I guess is to be expected, if the Fav is getting rolled all night.

There were severeal which got to 1.04 at the finish & they still got rolled.

Funny ahh.

__________________
Cheers.

Laying the fav at $1.05 in running last night using the minimum $5 bet would of gone alright then (trying to find something that will work with $5 minimum stakes when I've not got much left in the bank - $20 ).

-$80.60 today for laying the 1st fav to $10 liab and 2nd & 3rd favs to $30 liab.

The same as the UK last night the first fav actually lost some races and won +$42 if just laying those ??? So if laid to $30 liab it probably would have broken even today. Looks like the favs haven't been following the script.

With favourites falling over the other day, the script was followed the next day with more favourites winning than normal.
This is the rollercoaster effect which follows with predictable regularity.

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

Beton - some input.

I have been away for a few days so just picking up with what's happening and here is some input on Laying the first 3. These figures are based on BSP results so there may be some drifters and some firmers which may not have been picked up in real time, but it should provide a guide. Also this does not include BACKING the favourite - it is just laying the top 3.

Period 1st - 12th June - Lay Top 3:

1st Fav: $2 - $3: Profit $194.05

1st Fav: $2 - $4: Profit $405.47

... I think you may be onto something here - well done and thanks for sharing it with us ... Fred