In the past i have done my own ratings and find it a challenge to beat them and price runners well under there price, i have moved on to other areas but still think my ratings can make money, take any race from today over a rating of 70 and i can give you a run down.

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings are identical?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings have the same horses in the same rated order?

Why bother doing ratings when all ratings that give dollar odds price assessments have the same horses in the same rated order with the same dollar odds price assessments?

Need I say more?

ask moeee , he knows everything!

Spot on Neil. I believe that overall bookies and punters get the prices right for a race (it has been shown that horses win in proportion to their starting price). It is pointless following the same selections as everyone else, and most rating methods end up with very similar odds as has been pointed out here.

But remember too, a horse's rating price is just a measure of its chance of winning a race. A top rated horse with a rating of $3 say, in a market framed to 100% (in practice this most likely would be put up by the bookies as $2.50) indicates the horse has a 1 in 3 (33%) chance of winning, however, there is a 2 in 3 (67%) chance of the winner coming from one of the other horses.

The real skill in punting is to find the winner from the other 67% that most other punters overlook and where TAB overlays appear.

No , Not EVERYTHING!!!
But what I do know , I'm prepared to share.

A Professional Gambler wrote this about the LOSING PUNTERS

"His attitude toward turf speculation can best be summed up as "fun and games." He often resents any suggestion which deprives him of making the 101 blunders common to many turf enthusiasts"


I enjoy Rating Greyhounds.
I do not make Profit in my Wagering , but have not lost for over 3 or so years now.
I manage to beat the 15% takeout , and that is all at the minute.

No , Not EVERYTHING!!!
But what I do know , I'm prepared to share.

A Professional Gambler wrote this about the LOSING PUNTERS

"His attitude toward turf speculation can best be summed up as "fun and games." He often resents any suggestion which deprives him of making the 101 blunders common to many turf enthusiasts"


I enjoy Rating Greyhounds.
Really? Am i missing the point in all this?

Ozracetools have a handy program for resetting the book percentage.

So
Punch in all the Bookies prices which will come to approx 115-130% on opening prices
Then make the program set it to your percentage, say 100%

This 100% tries to reflect the horse's true chance of winning, if the bookies prices are accurate

Then maybe use Betfair to get the overs for win betting .

Now if we find ourselves getting bit, profit wise, along the way, it tells us that the general public is more accurate at accessing the markets chance of winning.

In that case , one maybe better off going for the unders.
e.g. Adjusted Bookies accessed price $4.50 then only bet it if its under this price on Betfair.

That's the general idea .

One will usually find that it swings from unders one day to overs getting up the next day, so one has to try & view these things over a number of days to see which is the more profitable.

The late great Don Scott did extremely well at doing his own ratings & betting the overs.
He would bet his ratings to price set to a to a fixed return.
E.g. His accessed price say $3.50 into his Return figure of say $1000
O/L $286
The horse he is targeting could actually be 7.00 with the Bookmakers.
7.00 x Bet $286 = Ret $2002

He would usually bet between 2-5 runners a race.

__________________
Cheers.

I guess you are.
There are a few there.

Honesty, Humility,Acceptance to start with.

Bhagwan

I fear things have changed significantly since Don Scott's heyday. The ease of access to information; fast, cheap computing; and, the globalisation of betting markets makes for a very different climate. The big over's of the past are now long, long gone.

Time for the new paradigm. Tell me first when you find it

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

Just be a bit wary of using unofficial opening prices.
Things may have changed, but, when MR was in charge of IAS the prices on the website and the price that they were prepared to bet you for any substantial amount were 2 very different things.

__________________
Jose'.