Has racing changed?
I have used several tipster services over the years to varying results. Some of them have stopped their services citing that it is now too hard to pick a profitable winner. Some have amended their recommendations even to the point of saying that their 3rd and 4th pick would return better money. They have all commented in one form or another that (1) value has gone and (2) class has gone since the EF.
One comment has me curious. The prices have gotten shorter. On the tote this can only mean that the field has gotten longer. On Betfair this means that people are accepting unders.
The question is "Has the prices gotten shorter?" And what are the ramifications of this?

I think using ratings in conjunction with extensive punting knowledge is a powerful combination.

Entwine these tools with patience and you're on a winner.

I use ratings which I have followed over many years now and know at which tracks they do particularly well and which tracks they do not.

I focus on horses that have performed at the distance, in the conditions and work from there.

An example at Eagle Farm on Saturday was Willy Jimmy and St Germaine. By my ratings they had virtually identical top ratings at the distance, yet Willy Jimmy opened at $6 and St Germaine $3.50. The market corrected a little before start time, however a nice collect was made.

It's not an exact science, however any hardened punter knows that this game is almost never predictable in the short-term, that's why we love it!!

For finding value, I recommend 'betting like a christian'... forgive your horses misgivings for one run, look for unlucky last start runs and don't expect horses to be robots. Some are warhorses, with the class to win when they are unfit, however the vast majority peak once during a prep, then need a few more runs to recover and peak again. Some only peak the once in a prep. EASY. Ha ha

I don't agree that all ratings are the same, however you can bet that if the majority of ratings services all have a certain horse top rated, there will generally be no value in backing them.

If nothing else marksto2 you've created some healthy heated debate, so well done.

Final thought: Bookies are people, they also make mistakes.

The Schmile

Beton, I've no data on whether favourites for example are starting at shorter prices these days. Anecdotally yes perhaps, but the three factors I mentioned would contribute to the market being more accurate or at least adjusting itself more rapidly.

__________________
Pixie

"It's worth remembering that profit isn't profit until it's spent off the racecourse." -- Crash

A nice collect was made and a "Aren't a clever boy am I" was probably thought.

But don't forget , you had both horses equal , and in your eyes , either of the 2 could have won.

Because you have found an Overlay , that doesn't make it try any harder, or make it more likely to win.

I would have perhaps purchased a Quinella with the 2 animals as a Saver bet just in case.

Fair play Mooee, I did sound a like a bit of a ********er there.

It was a nice collect however.....ha ha

I did cover with an exacta, however I do appreciate your advice, imparted in such a friendly manner. So thank you.

The Schmile

OMG!!!
Somebody accepted my comment without getting offended.
Not only that , but actually thanked me for it!!

You weren't sounding like a ********er in your post.
You sounded very sensible.
But I just wanted to alert you that when you begin to be proud of yourself too much , you start to get cocky , and then forget to continue working hard and feel that the winners will keep coming in regardless of effort.

I should know.
It happened to me straight after Lomaca warned me about getting cocky - And I ignored him

I wonder how many of those blokes that bag the ratings approach to finding a winner would be prepared to stick their necks out and tell us what they fancy before the race starts?

Anyone can pick winners after the ball,

Gerry

Ratings are good if used as a pointer to horses you might otherwise overlook. For example look at the API of Torio's Quest (EF race 8) compared with the others in the field and you realize just how well it was placed. (I'm kicking myself because I did not back it.) Also look at the win% of Trusted Partner (EF race 2) and its first up and win distance record. (I did back this one though.)

You don't need to pay for ratings. Just consider top api, win% and place% and fresh horses and make your own decision from there. Note I have left out form. I have tried for years to combine these into an overall rating but to no avail. In fact I found that there is no correlation between any two of these factors. For example, in general high win% does not imply high place % or high API and combining these can have a negative effect on overall ratings by cancelling each other.

In the end the punter has to put in the effort. To this end I am now concentrating on one state only.

Funny you should say that.

I was into AFL Betting some years ago.
I did some research on Football Tipsters.
From the Newspapers I got all the reults of Tipsters and found there were perhaps 6 or 7 that either were Profitable or at least fared a lot better than Most.
I tried combining these tipsters selections somehow, but no matter what I tried, I could only turn these Profitable Tipsters into Losers.

Any ability that one Tipster had seemed to be cancelled out by the other , rather than reinforcing each other.

Here is a race for tomorrow, scratching do impact my ratings so we will see.

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