I have been away for most of the past month,but I have downloaded all the results from Betfair in an to attempt to get a handle on laying.

To my surprise, I noticed the 1st and 2nd favourites made a profit during June (Backing).

I know there is a major flaw in going down that path, as due to the money movement at the end, the favourites will change, and hence you would never be able to achieve the same results.

However, this flaw may also provide an opportunity - and hence my THEORY ...

If a snap shot was taken at say 25 seconds before close and again at say 2 seconds before close, over a period of time we should have 3 groups:

- Those that firm in price
- Those that remain the same
- Those that drift in the market.

My theory is that the ones who firm in that time frame should be candidates for a back and those that drift should be a candidate for a lay.

Tomorrow I aim to write a small routine to capturing this data, so any comments, input, suggestions etc would be appreciated.

I will progressively post the findings through out July.

However, I must admit it all sounds too simple! ... but it is a Theory!

And that will leave you 2 seconds to get your bet on.

You must be hooked up to optic fibre already.

I know Moeee, 2 seconds does sounds ridiculous but I know it works at 0 seconds as I have been placing bets at that time so the 2 seconds gives me lots and lots of room for movement. If you were really brave you could even go for a minus figure and I would be confident of that working as well.

I watch a lot of races and going by the clock on Gruss i have never seen a race start at 0 maybe 5 seconds after is the closest i have seen.

Oh yeah.
I forgot that very few races actually start at the exact start time.
And NEVER early.

If it helps, my database of results from 2000, has 73% of winners actually drift in the market, rather than firm.

That's a bit of a bummer

Another Urban myth exposed maybe.

Another question raised about the so called smart money.

Thanks for your findings Vortech.

Are they TAB or Betfair figures?

__________________
Cheers.

I have noticed the TAB figures reflect the Blowers that send to dominate.

Yet on Betfair its the opposite.

One will notice that the TAB tends to Mirror Betfair as far as order of favouritism.

Especially after they have jumped.

__________________
Cheers.

Can you expand on this because my findings are the opposite.
Which results are you recording, tote, bookie, or other?
How do you define drift or firm?

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