OZmium Sports Betting and Horse Racing Forums

#21

19th August 2011, 01:40 PM

lomaca

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 1,096

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

I don't believe it, every time I nominate some horse on this forum, that is not a fav pick by the tipsters it becomes a late mail. AND fail!

Now I'm fully aware of my limitations and don't for a moment suggest that the late mail tipper is following my selections but it gets creepy!

Still I hope it wins, I have 50*150 riding on it.

Good luck

#22

19th August 2011, 02:47 PM

OM SHARNTEE OM SHARNTEE is offline

Member

Join Date: Apr 2006

Posts: 396

Quote:

Originally Posted by lomaca

Here is an other to look at, maybe of some value
CAB Race 5 BM65 #3 Old Mystique $ 2.6

Hi lomaca

Thats a very interesting "system" youve got there !

An 11 year old brother to a Melbourne Cup winner ,

going for a Hat Trick.

--Whithin 19 days--

Good luck

Last edited by OM SHARNTEE : 19th August 2011 at 02:50 PM. Reason: Addnew rule

#23

19th August 2011, 05:34 PM

The Ocho

Member

Join Date: Aug 2010

Posts: 1,037

Quote:

Originally Posted by Chrome Prince

This is an interesting point.
When considering the old chestnut of the rated price plus so much percent is overs, I have found the direct opposite to be true.
The above statement assumes that the ratings are accurate and take into account the money that "goes on" is no smarter than the ratings.
I've found this not to be the case.

A quick and dirty review of the last 102 horses that opened on track at less than $2.05 demonstrates.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 1.45 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a loss of 8.92 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 7.47 units.

If I expand the opening price to $3.00 or less, it becomes more interesting.

Backing them all less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 22.09 units.

Backing the drifters less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 12.21 units.

Backing the firmers less 5% commission on Betfair resulted in a profit of 9.88 units.

So based on the above information, backing the firmers at $2.00 or less opening price and all at $2.05 to $3.00 we get this...
$ 7.47
$23.54

$31.01 units profit from 398 bets, or 7.79% POT based simply on price.

This is from the last 7 Saturday meetings only.

I've noticed this month that the fav is winning more than it's share of races and maybe why those results are a bit squew-if.

#24

20th August 2011, 11:37 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

The Ocho, I hope you're right about the faves winning more than their share of races.

If the fave wins then there's a good chance I might lose in both my Lay the Field methods. However both of them are currently doing extremely well. Last night in England I layed 5 races. The fave won 2 of them (40% strike rate) yet I was able to show a profit.

Today's selections for the Place method (nos. 1 to 4) are:

Bairnsdale
2/1

Dombeen
8/1

Gold Coast
2/2
3/1
4/3

Moonee Valley
1/1
8/1

Morphetville
3/1

Toowoomba
4/4
5/2

Warwick Farm
2/3

#25

20th August 2011, 06:11 PM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,365

The last 7 weeks, odds on favourites that were well supported won infinitely more races than normal for Metro races.

__________________
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#26

20th August 2011, 08:00 PM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Not a bad day today for the Place system.

There were 11 selections for 3 winners paying $23.40 on Unitab, and 9 placegetters paying $17.40.

#27

21st August 2011, 01:25 AM

Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline

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Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 4,365

Again the hot pots that there was money for did well....

Code:


Date	        TRACK	      RACE	Tab	HORSE	        OPEN	 FLUC1	FLUC2	CLOSE	MOVEMENTTOP FLUCSP	NSWTAB	UNiTAB	STAB BEST TOTEBSPBFMINUSCOM
20/08/2011	Doomben	        2	7	Transporter	$1.75	$1.75	$1.65	$1.70	FIRM								
20/08/2011	Moonee Valley	7	8	Kulgrinda	$1.90	$1.95	$1.75	$1.70	FIRM	$1.95	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.70	$1.75	$1.66
20/08/2011	Toowoomba	3	4	Somnambulist	$1.65	$1.65	$1.50	$1.26	FIRM	$1.65	$1.26	$1.40	$1.20	$1.30	$1.40	$1.33	$1.26

#28

21st August 2011, 11:17 AM

partypooper partypooper is offline

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Join Date: Nov 1999

Location: Western Australia

Posts: 2,389

That's always done my head in, on one hand you have the "experts" telling you that the only way to win is to get VALUE, i.e obtain a price that is greater than the horses true chance of winning, and on the other hand being told that backing firmers is the way to go? which means that you are accepting the opposite (in most cases)

#29

21st August 2011, 12:05 PM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Let's see how the system goes today:

Kalgoorlie
4/3

Launceston
3/1

#30

22nd August 2011, 11:09 AM

michaelg

Member

Join Date: Jan 1970

Posts: 2,790

Yesterday there was one winner of $2.30 and $1.30, the second selection ran fourth.

Unfortunately I missed a third selection. It was Alice Springs R4 no.1 - it ran third paying $1.60, which I can't record because I failed to list it.

One selection today:

Echuca
3/6

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