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  #11  
Old 20th December 2011, 10:20 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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I took the sky tipsters today (thoroughbred only) and the results where the tipster selection was favourite was a total of 14 tips for 3 winners with the amount being paid back to punters being 9.43.

This means you made a profit of 11*0.95 - 9.43 = 1.02 units

Roughly a 7% profit.
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  #12  
Old 20th December 2011, 10:30 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Well it could well workout, but tread with caution, I like to lay their best bets only.
In fact their other tips do quite well, especially longshots or value bets.
The whole thing about this is, their Best Bets have a woeful record.
So if laying all their tips were breakeven on Betfair, laying the Best Bets should be a honeypot, as they are well down on strike rate.

Like in the UK, the Pricewise selection is enormously overbet by punters.

A lot of recreational punters like to either get out on the best bets or back them on their lunchbreak etc.
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  #13  
Old 20th December 2011, 11:10 PM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Chrome,

I am only looking at those tips which started favourite. So if its 2nd favourite then I don't record it. My thinking is that if its favourite and its been tipped by a tipster then it might be overbet and therefore a good lay.

I went through the last 2 days and one of the tipsters has tipped 12 favs for only 2 winners returning 5.33

Overall in 2 days there was a combined 55 tips on favs (some double up obviously) for 18 winners which is 32% but only returned 46.93 so with a 5% commission this returned $6.22 profit for laying.

I'll monitor this for the next few days and see what happens.
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  #14  
Old 21st December 2011, 12:19 AM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Interesting approach, we'll see how it pans out.
I'm avoiding best bets when they are best bets with more than one tipster.
But maybe you have something there.
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  #15  
Old 21st December 2011, 07:40 AM
UselessBettor UselessBettor is offline
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Looking at it of the 12 tipsters that are recorded only 3 made a profit in the last 2 days.

So will be interesting to see if this trend continues.
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  #16  
Old 21st December 2011, 08:35 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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There are six tipsters in the Saturday Telegraph, each giving their best selection for the day.

Out of interest, I often see see how they fared. I've never bet them nor kept records so I don't know if they've been successful or not, but my general impression is that they are not too bad.

I checked the last three Saturdays for their bets tips. There were eighteen of them for seven winners paying exactly $24.00.

Of course it might just have been a good period, but as previously stated, my general impression is that the tips haven't been too bad. But I must admit I haven't been checking them on a regular basis.
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  #17  
Old 21st December 2011, 09:46 AM
thorns thorns is offline
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Often wondered if the same thing would apply to the market mover that they announce befoer the start of most races. Surely any value has long sice gone, and as people load up.

In thinking along these lines, what about the horse who is well supported in the market for a start, then shortens on BF dramatically, surely again, any value about that horse has since gone as the masses load up on it follwing the market movement thinking its a sure thing?
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  #18  
Old 21st December 2011, 12:14 PM
Chrome Prince Chrome Prince is offline
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Sandown R3 Wookah
Sandown R5 Valedictorian
Sandown R6 Straveen
Sandown R6 Louisville Dancer
(Query over Del Palio in R5, as more than one has it as his best bet.
Not including it).

Eagle Farm R6 Pear Tart
Eagle Farm R7 Sons Of God

Wyong R5 Lucy Louise
Wyong R7 Urgent Bells

Gawler R7 Lottalago

Trots:
Mildura R2 Caulonia Babe
Kilmore R8 Just Wal
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  #19  
Old 21st December 2011, 12:43 PM
Travolta Travolta is offline
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you may want to have a look at googling for "the great tip off dot com" which is a site that tracks performance of media and pro tipsters best bets (you may need to register/join to see leaderboard)....

you are spot on - there are a couple who generate a small POT but most media tipsters are losers.
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  #20  
Old 21st December 2011, 12:52 PM
norisk norisk is offline
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so Richy's special today at Wyong is R6 No1 Above All - apparently "It will win" despite the awkward gate...we will see

I should add it is a selection in a place system I follow, although I usually pass when they are this short (<$3.00), so will tip it to get pipped at the post.

Last edited by norisk : 21st December 2011 at 12:54 PM.
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