Last Start Winners is a filter that forms the basis of 6 of my current systems, all are in profit for the past 4 years to the tune of 42% POT combined with about 150 bets per year so it is definitely possible to make money from LSW.

It just so happens SA got us both out of trouble.
Small profit for me , including SA , a small loss without.
Continue to try both our systems , and see what happens.

Axles LSW
8 bets 2 wins (25%)
Out 8 - In 8.4

(no SA)
6 bets 1 win (17%)
Out 6 - In 5

Mattio ,

I only achieve small POT , but stay in the + . Using only basic
rules and limited filters , eek out small profits , but profit
none the less. Try Try Again has motioned me towards many well
managed factors to entertain my system , but many hands make
light work. Not asking , and never will , for your system , just a little
insight into why you chose LSW as one of the cores of your system/s?

Impressive result yesterday Try Try

Not sure if you have posted stats here but I got...

7 selections (Excluding Slow/Heavy)
2 wins
2 seconds
1 third
2 unpl

Have you nailed a staking strategy as yet or is this still in test mode?

LG

PS You also nailed a WIN from a wet track = Shez Sensational $5 !

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

Hi Lord G,

I double my bet if the qualifying horse started 7,14 or 21 days ago. Logic being that it has started on Saturday class race previously rather than a country or midweek class.

After yesterday's races (betting all qualifiers i.e. not eliminating SA or Heavy or Slow tracks) the results are:-

One unit on all selections

Bank +92.45 units
POT % = 33.5%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +164.20 units
POT % = 36.1%

Yesterday there was an increase in the bank of 3.6 units

Hi axledog,

I go back to a quote from Don Scott (and others I am sure) that sums it up - "Winners keep on winning and losers keep on losing". I like to find winning systems and I just found that last start winners was a good place to start. If you add the right filters then some good systems can be had.

Intersting fact also - favourites who were last start winners have a long term strike rate of almost 34% which is about 2% higher than normal.

Cheers,

Mat.

Hi Try Try Again,

Good logic with regards to the idea of horses that have raced on a Saturday last start but this is logic that probably most punters would also look at which can quickly erode any value. An example of this is a system I am looking at currently, the last 4 years on all days and all meetings it has had 747 selections for a S/R of 41.5%, of this there were 458 selections who ran on Saturday last start for a 41% S/R and 19% POT. There were also 289 selections who did run on a Saturday last start for a 42% S/R and a 7% LOT.

Now these figures don't take into account days last start or day of the week but you can see how even with a higher S/R there was absolutely no value in those selections. A test on Saturday races has yielded basically the same S/R and P/L figures, not saying this will be the case with your system but it is something to consider, especially if you are doubling your bet based on this logic.

Cheers,

Matt.

I need to correct my last post as I have discovered a non qualifying horse on the 7th April had "snuck" through!

One unit on all selections

Bank +93.45 units
POT % = 34.0%

Betting extra unit on qualifiers starting 7,14 or 21 days ago

Bank +166.20 units
POT % = 36.7%

I have also looked at how the Zipform ratings would affect these results and have noticed that if you had only supported horses that had a Zipform rating of >=58 (with all the other rules in place) then there would have been, since 18th February (as I only have the Zipform ratings for all meetings since then),

Bets 26
Wins 14
Win S/R 56.8%
Bank +62.9 units
POT % = 125.8%

Maybe this would suggest we place an extra win unit on each of these selections as well. Of the 26 selections only 2 had not raced on either 7,14 or 21 days ago - both won! The lowest dividend of these 14 winners was $2.20 and the biggest was $8.00.

We would now have 3 units on each of these horses (that raced 7,14 or 21 days ago) and 2 units on the other horses.

Our results (bringing in this new rule since 18th February) would give

Bets 275
Wins 69
Win S/R 25.1%
Bank +199.2 units
POT% = 41.6%

I think this is becoming a "tidy" system and well worth persuing. What do you think?

Hi Mattio,

My results so far indicate that by supporting the horses that did start 7,14 or 21 days increases the POT % and more importantly the Bank. I am only looking at Saturday major meetings in SA, NSW, Qld & VIC. The lowest winning dividend has been $1.80 and the highest dividend $15.80, both these have started on a Saturday previously. I know it is on limited testing but so far so good.

You said you are looking at LSW 7 days a week, have you looked at the Unitab rating to eliminate the lower class last start winners or looked at the number of starts the horses have had? This may improve your returns.

I run another system based on Open Class prepost favourites which has a 43.2% S/R and showing a 58.7% POT for nearly 6 years based on starting on a previous Saturday. I am very happy with this result, especially as the profit graph has continued on the same gradient from day 1.

I hope your success continues for another decade or ten!

Here are the qualifiers for today if anyone is interested.

12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	F&M	2000	Blue Nile
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1800	Magnifique Soleil
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	3yo	1200	Classy Chloe
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1100	Stratcombe
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Mares	1200	Rue Maple
12/05/2012	Caulfield	Dead	Open	1400	Utah Saints
12/05/2012	Morphettville	Dead	Open	2500	My Ex Mate
12/05/2012	Rosehill	Dead	F&M	1100	Shelters
12/05/2012	Doomben	Dead	3yo	2000	Trump
12/05/2012	Doomben	Dead	Class 6	1350	Oak Street