Good to see some valid replies on this subject.

I agree/disagree with a lot of the past testing results. I for one when setting up ideas only go back no more than 2 years.
Reason being that there have been so many changes to the racing industry of late that what is happening now, if it were in place 5 years ago, would make a difference to you results which have been posted in reply on this thread.

Here is another simple idea.

Horses aged 4-7 with last start 3-17 days One more filter that I will not divulge at this time. Those with **** will work it out with the analyser.

Last 2 years

WIN
Races Bet: 166
Races Won: 66
S.R./Race: 39.8%
Outlay($): 167.00
Return : 239.96
$ Profit : 72.96
% P.O.T. : 43.7%

Cheers
Enjay

I think I had better go to bed before I divulge any more of my simple ideas.

My last post has just been tested back for the past 4 years from today and all I can say is WOWOWOWOWOW!!!! The POT and Strike has been changed, but allowing for the changes as I have stated I am impressed. Naturally I will follow these on paper for 50 bets before I invest.

Last 4 years


Meetings considered : 8570
Win Strike Rate/Seln. : 34.4%
Plc Strike Rate/Seln. : 52.4%
Average Win Dividend : $3.36
Average Plc Dividend : $1.76

WIN
Races Bet: 316
Races Won: 109
S.R./Race: 34.5%
Outlay($): 317.00
Return : 366.76
$ Profit : 49.76
% P.O.T. : 15.7%

I am very happy with these results.

Regards

Enjay

Nice work enjay

Good to see someone showing a profitable system with rules.[/QUOTE]

What has changed so dramatically in the last few years that would affect a decent system tested over 12 years ?? I have observed that there are certainly cycles in this caper, but there's cycles in everything.

I suppose training methods have changed where a horse can be set first up over a bit of distance. Weights have become compressed. But horses still have 4 legs and the fav still wins 30% of the time and LSW still win at the same rates they used to.

I agree Barny, a lot changes over the years, but many things are undisputably consistent.

__________________
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One noticeable change is the availability of data to many punters. The % of winners doesn't often change long-term just the price.

Common sense just isn't very common any more.

PS: Good to see you keep the ideas flowing Barny. Not much action around here anymore.

I agree 100%. That's why a) You need to swim against the tide and as you say use some common sense and b) Either stick with a decent system and ride out the bad runs or be able to identify which season the system outperforms.

I'm certain the some systems outperform during the Melbourne Spring Carnival. I'm sure class would be to the fore more during this time of year.

Yes -Some systems do out perform for the Melb Cup - have been using it last few years and it's track record is sound over many more years than this !

Looks like I will have to share the selections with the family this this time around - they weren't that happy last year when I returned the only winner for the dayin the cup and bought them a lolly bag bc I felt sorry for them!

LG

__________________
The trick isn't finding profitable angles, it's finding ones you will bet through the ups and downs - UB

I would have been more than happy with a lolly bag last year

__________________
RaceCensus - powerful system testing software.
Now with over 399,000 Metropolitan, Provincial and Country races!
http://www.propun.com.au/horse_raci...ng_systems.html
*RaceCensus now updated to 31/03/2024
Video overview of RaceCensus here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W821YP_b0Pg

I got a lolly bag last year. Thanks Dad you meany.