This is statement of the month!! Well Done

domenic posted .....

I have been using ratings for around 25 years. If during that time I backed my top rated horse only, I would have been broke years ago. That's confirmation that ratings cannot pick winners at such odds that allow you to win. Exactly what I've been saying for as long as ..... and I've given reasons why.

From my point of view I use ratings to sort out the main chances in the race, and if I consider it a betting race then the market will dictate if I bet or not. I really don't understand what you're saying here dominic. Are you suggesting that you only look at certain races to bet on, or are you saying that you have a minimum price with which you'll bet on ?

It is extremely difficult to profit long term from backing only 1 horse per race, unless you have a lot of patience. I've never understood the logic behind this theory. Can you elaborate please ?

And to Vortech, what exactly is it that makes this the statement of the month. There's no substance to it.

Barny,
Over 5 years plus my strike rate is around 27% at an average price of $4.50 for Saturday Metro. This is the only day I bet. The notion that if you use ratings you can't win is a nonsense.
I am selective with the races I bet on, and if I don't consider there is value I don't bet. Last Saturday I bet on 16 races (33 bets) across 5 states for 9 winners at an average of $4.57.
Regarding betting 1 horse per race, well each to their own, it simply does not suit my style of betting.
With regard to ratings in general I have never used any of the free ratings available so I cannot comment on their accuracy or otherwise. Using ratings requires a considerable amount of work but the reward is there.

Hi Domenic,
The other thing I feel should be pointed out Re free or paid for Ratings is that there for the SOLE purpose of pointing one in the right direction and not necessarily to garuntee a Daily,Weekly,Monthly or yearly profit.

I wish things were that simple.

Cheers
darky

domenic and darkydog2002, thanks for the responses. My input here is completely biased based on what I have previously said re; Ratings being overbet 'coz .... Before I make a complete idiot of myself I'll look into this and use darkydog2002's recommendation for Ratings service.

My perception about the sole reason for Ratings services, ie provide winners, looks to be off the mark ? I do find that wierd, but it's a wierd caper this gambling isn't it ?!

Barny, in my short time in the caper i've managed to get my own ratings together based on one of Shaun's spreadsheets using data from cyberhorse. I can't comment on how useful unitab's ratings are however in my testing i could've made a flat stakes profit betting my top rater in every race i've tested (both backtesting and forward testing) since 1 April 2012.

Also across that period on Good/Dead tracks a very high level of those winners were 100 raters on tatts. I can post the graph/details when i'm home on lunch break if you wish.

Ratings can be as good as the inputs you have at your disposal to put in to them, and I also think the calculations in which you use the detail can make quite a difference too. You also have to look at how many favourites lost on Saturday as well, typically tatts 100 raters will be 1st or 2nd favourite and so win quite regularly without making a POT due to being overbet. Quite a few of the winners on saturday (to my knowledge) weren't favourites and were paying $10+. Its not very often you'll find a 100 rater on tatts paying $10+.

Any info would be great evajb001. My selections on raceday only take a short while and I've bagged out ratings for long enough under the premise that "If everyone knows about them then they're overbet", so I like to either have some more ammo to bag them out, or find out that I'm wrong, or find out that they're a useful tool. Related to ratings, I do believe that you need to concentrate on one selection method (eg; Privateer and his Pareto method) and become an ************ in that area, otherwise you're all over the place. So I'll look at Ratings from the perspective that the followers use them as a guide.

ratings -- for comparison i have used skyform and racingzone ratings which are both free
http://skychannel.com.au/tab/form/index.php
http://www.racingzone.com.au/

parameters: startingbank $100 -- betting 1 unit on each selection where 1unit = $5.00

Seymour 30-10-12

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Top selection
(1) skyform final bank $113 won R8 #7 paid $8.6 (R1 and R3 excluded insufficient horses rated)
(2) racingzone final bank $116.50 won R6 #3 paid $9.30 (R1and R3 excluded insufficient horses rated)
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Top 4 selections
(1) skyform final bank $131.50 level stakes
(2) racingzone final bank $133 level stakes
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i don't know how these ratings perform long term but in each case backing more than 1 runner in a race produced a better result
also, i'm inclined to think that dutch betting would be the way to go however, not with market prices -- you would have to produce your own priceline!

good luck!

__________________
never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin

Or use one of the better Handicappers Price line.
i.e
r+s
Wizard online.

Cheers
darky

ok! -- i got you (i think) -- so for rank #1 you would adopt the rank #1 price from R&S -- clever!!

__________________
never smile at a crocodile -- don't be taken in by his welcome grin