evajb001, wow ! I don't ever recall thinking along those lines .... thank you !

I have read quite a lot about staking and a common theme seems to be, chasing loses, no matter how you do it, is a downhill ride to the poorhouse. Is there anyone who successfully runs a loss chase staking plan?

If you know your strike rate you can calculate your run of outs long term.

You can set up your bank and stake to a percentage of starting bank.

If a system has a strike rate higher than 50% I reduce the stake percentage. More chance winning than losing so bet higher.

In theory if you have a big enough bank any staking plan can work even losing at level stakes.

Your welcome Barney, like I said just an idea based on no evidence at all but logically to me it would seem your limiting losses while retaining the same level of profits as you would have had anyway.

i.e. In my example, if Banana was to win when its race was run, not only have you obtained the $10 profit you were aiming for anyway, but you've already recouped some of Apples losses.

docdapunta - I've read a lot that basically says the same thing, any chase system is bound for 'eventual' failure. However this depends a lot on the size of your bankroll and your unit size. For example a betting system may 'eventually' hit that run of losses that destroys your bankroll on a chase system but with extremely conservative staking that run of losses could be a il nino 1 in 100 years thing that wont happen while your betting the system.

I personally don't think chase systems are a great idea but believe they can be used profitably if the right system presents itself.

Yeah, and in theory if I miss 3 two footers in a row then I'm due to get the next one. BTW, I played off a handicap of four more than the lowest marker in Vic at that time, played off that mark for yonks and used wooden clubs off the tee and played at a time when hitting par 5's in two was reserved for the long hitters of the game. Your handicap of 1 is really good Vortech, that's a really mean feat, but the game of golf has been plundered by the improved balls, clubs, and 'that' putter. Adam Scott would need to win a major in the next couple of years, prior to 2016, otherwise it's goodnight for him.

Doc,
This might help.

The correct way for Target betting is

Exp Win % X Exp Win Dividend X .08

i.e 25 X $3.25 X 0.8 = 6.5 Max divisor

Minimum Divisor (in this example would be 3.25)

The Minimum Divisor is always the av price of your winners.

Reframe your divisors every 100 bets.

Thanks for the responses.

Now all we need to do is hope some of these horses do the right thing eventually.

Think this discussion is heading in a really positive direction.

And doc, it might be a better use of your time to look at your selection method rather than chasing your losses. Chasing your losses is a Lazy Man's Modus Operandi for making a quid from thoroughbred racing.

darky, can you explain in more detail with possibly an example for me, maybe i've already got my mind on a cold beer and thats why i'm struggling to follow.

Cheers

I like them apples. That's a good use of your melon.

Is that enough fruity talk?

Seriously, that's a good suggestion.

__________________
Never give up on a dream just because of the time it will take to accomplish it. The time will pass anyway.”

― Earl Nightingale