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  #21  
Old 14th December 2012, 11:18 AM
evajb001 evajb001 is offline
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haha LG think you got your bolded numbers mixed up slightly bud, that tuesday outlay would be $6 not $60 if your taking off the last 2 digits to get 1% of the quad.

Looks promising michaelg but it would take at least a month worth of quaddies for me to be even a little convinced.

Just as some food for thought and if your interested, how would they have faired if you used the same Don Scott selections but instead of filtering for last start finish, you filtered for horses that have only won greater then 4.9% in the conditions (i.e. at least once in 20 runs).

Using my own ratings i've found that winners have generally won in the conditions before and losers generally havent (and i'm toying with a system that lays tehm).

Also excluding maiden races is a MUST for any system thats using some form of ratings.
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  #22  
Old 14th December 2012, 11:37 AM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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L.G and Evajbob001,

Generall, I'm not too impressed with the D.S. ratings, except for his outsiders when applying the filters.

One thing I did notice but unfortunately did not keep records, is that the selections if box-quinelled snared one or two large divvies, and the majority of the quinellas. When I get time I might have a look at this and also the Win results.

I'll list today's selections later.

Last edited by michaelg : 14th December 2012 at 11:40 AM.
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  #23  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:01 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Hi Michaelg,

Took a bit of a liberty and gave the 3 meetings from yesterday a couple of 'close shaves' to see what transpired i.e. to see if we can we reduce the selections in each leg to improve the yield - results below...

Gold
mg 7x7x7x7
lg1 5x5x5x6 (31%)
lg2 5x5x5x5 (26%)

Rock
mg 7x7x7x8
lg1 6x5x4x6 (30%)
lg2 3x5x4x6 (15%)

Gerry
mg 7x7x7x7
lg1 4x6x5x5 (25%)
lg2 4x6x2x5 (10%) BUT 1 winner taken out so no lolly at Gerry


Summary
Total original selections = 85
Total after lg1 applied = 62
Total after lg2 applied = 55


Not sure if this qualifies as 'food for thought' but I found it an interesting 'shaving experience' in any case. Beats the old cut throat at crack of dawn!


Cheers LG

PS Thanks TO, good pickup my son. I did note if after I posted but was testing to see if you are on the ball on a friday !
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  #24  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:14 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
L.G and Evajbob001,

Generall, I'm not too impressed with the D.S. ratings, except for his outsiders when applying the filters.

One thing I did notice but unfortunately did not keep records, is that the selections if box-quinelled snared one or two large divvies, and the majority of the quinellas. When I get time I might have a look at this and also the Win results.

I'll list today's selections later.


PS can also confirm that lg1 snared 8 out of 8 box quinella's on offer from your selections (lg2 missed the big one at Rocky in L1 however)

LG
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Last edited by Lord Greystoke : 14th December 2012 at 12:18 PM.
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  #25  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:21 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thanks, L.G. However I am uncomfortable shaving any selections at the moment.

Today's selections - I have omitted any quaddie that has an outlay of $2,000 or more.

Scone
1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
1, 2, 3, 4, 6
1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13
1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13
Outlay of $1,960

Bendigo
3, 4, 6
2, 4, 5, 8, 9
1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
2, 3, 6, 7, 10, 11, 12, 14
Outlay of $840

Pakenham
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10
1, 2, 5, 8,9, 10, 12
4, 5, 6, 7
1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10
Outlay of $1,176

Bunbury
1, 2, 3, 8,
2, 5, 7
4, 7, 8
3, 4, 5, 9
Outlay of $144.

Total outlay of $4,420.
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  #26  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:27 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg
Thanks, L.G. However I am uncomfortable shaving any selections at the moment. Understood - was just an exercise / drill, not a suggestion, will continue to explore away from the 'maddening crowds'

Today's selections - I have omitted any quaddie that has an outlay of $2,000 or more. In the interests of mutually assured instruction(MAST?), please don't ??!!


Michaelg, see above mate.

Cheers LG
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  #27  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:40 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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I'm rushing for time to do this, and the neural website is down at the moment which is putting me behind identifying the D.S. outsiders method.

I don't know if the quaddie method would have snared yesterday's $260 quinella at Rocky R7 because the second horse (no.3) has a "D" showing at it's last start on the Unitab page, which according to the Telegraph (won at this distance at a different track). When a horse is resuming from a spell I look at it's last start, and in this case it ran sixth. I wish I could say the quinella would have been won but I don't know.
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  #28  
Old 14th December 2012, 12:45 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Fair enough mate. 7 out of 12 quinellas makes for fine reading no doubt.

LG

PS Neural db up and running, professor
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  #29  
Old 14th December 2012, 04:57 PM
michaelg michaelg is offline
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Thanks, L.G, but I've still been having trouble with the website, must be my computer.

A correction to the Bendigo quaddie - I forgot to include no.9 in the final leg, so the outlay for Bendigo is $945 and not $840 as guoted.

As a matter of interest, five quaddie races have now been run. The quinella outlay for these five races is $62 and the current return (Unitab divvies) is $75.
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  #30  
Old 14th December 2012, 05:19 PM
Lord Greystoke Lord Greystoke is offline
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Quote:
Originally Posted by michaelg

Scone
1, 2, 3, 5, 7, 8, 10
1, 2, 3, 4, 6
1, 2, 6, 7, 8, 10, 13
1, 2, 3, 6, 7, 8, 9, 13 TO RUN
Outlay of $1,960

Bendigo
3, 4, 6
2, 4, 5, 8, 9
1, 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9
2, 3, 6, 7, , (Add 9), 10, 11, 12, 14 TO RUN
Outlay of $840

Pakenham
3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 10 NO LOLLY
1, 2, 5, 8,9, 10, 12
4, 5, 6, 7 TO RUN
1, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 10 TO RUN
Outlay of $1,176

Bunbury TO RUN
1, 2, 3, 8,
2, 5, 7
4, 7, 8
3, 4, 5, 9
Outlay of $144.

Total outlay of $4,420.


See above - not wanting to steel your thunder, mate

Cheers LG
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